Image is of Iranian speedboats spotted by a satellite in the Strait of Hormuz.
Not terribly much has happened in the last week. The main two developments is the very much expected resumption of fire in Lebanon as the ZIonists are famously agreement-incapable, and the continuing supply of equipment to the Middle East, including the George H.W. Bush aircraft carrier. This means there are now three aircraft carriers in the general vicinity, and while I’m uncertain how much of a role the burnt-out Ford and the increasingly exhausted Lincoln will ultimately play (they were rather ineffective during the first round), there are also a good ~20 destroyers and however many submarines that are carrying their own munitions. I have a couple more paragraphs of exposition below, but it’s unlikely to be major news to anybody here, so I’ve spoilered it.
spoiler
On the one hand, it feels like a resumption of the war for the US at this point would be complete madness. We are getting article after article from even the Western media admitting to US standoff+interceptor missile shortages, as well as detailing the extensive damage to US bases. The Zionists are also getting ever more mired in Lebanon, with Hezbollah’s unjammable fibre optic drones playing an ever more prominent role in causing substantial long range damage to invading forces. On the other hand, it is very unlikely that most of the US’s remaining firepower is being brought to the region on a mere bluff. For its part, Iran and their allies seem to have their finger on the trigger, with their own extensive repairs, upgrades, resupplies, and adjustments having been made for round two.
Assessing the overall global economic situation is difficult, not least because of a degree of financial manipulation that is almost admirable in its sheer scale and recklessness - to quote Ghalibaf: “Their frontline is the yield curve.” Multiple countries are now facing real and desperate shortages, including major economies like Japan. Diesel prices continue their record rises, and reports about the potential impacts to all sectors of the global economy are streaming in, with famines around the world now very likely. While the US is profiting from the rise in oil prices, it seems like it will be unable to meaningfully increase production for at least a year or two, and so the US will certainly not be replacing the massive oil barrel deficit to create an energy hegemony, as some have suggested. In contrary: this is the best opportunity in a generation for China, Russia, and Iran to collectively make economic decisions that could cripple entire pillars of American hegemony. However, if the response is lacking - and we’ve all seen before over the last four years how China’s responses to crises have been on the lacking side - we could see a (albeit temporary) strengthening of the US’s financial power, as this global crisis will almost certainly result in debt climbing even higher as Western financial institutions grant loans en masse to struggling countries in the developing world. It’s very uncertain times.
Last week’s thread is here.
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The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on the Zionists’ destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
An MQ-4C Triton was damaged during flight on April 27th over the Persian Gulf. The unit cost of an MQ-4C can be has high as 250 million dollars.
US Supreme Court guts key provision of Voting Rights Act
spoiler
The U.S. Supreme Court on Wednesday gutted a key provision of the Voting Rights Act - making it harder for minorities to challenge electoral maps as racially discriminatory under the landmark civil rights law - in a victory for Louisiana Republicans and President Donald Trump’s administration.
The court, in a 6-3 ruling powered by its conservative members, blocked an electoral map that had given Louisiana a second Black-majority U.S. congressional district. With November congressional elections looming, the decision could prompt Republican-led states to seek to redraw electoral maps in an effort to put at risk seats considered safely Democratic.
The court’s liberal justices, civil rights leaders, Democratic lawmakers and some legal experts denounced the decision as severely undermining Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, which Congress enacted to bar electoral maps that would result in diluting the clout of minority voters.
That provision had gained greater significance as a bulwark against racial discrimination in voting after the Supreme Court in 2013 gutted a different part of the same law. Black voters tend to support Democratic candidates.
BREAKING: President Trump has “rejected” Iran’s proposal to open the Strait of Hormuz and the US has prepared a plan for a “short and powerful” wave of strikes on Iran, per Axios.
Have these morons learned nothing? The Epstein Axis are not the folks who get to determine if their “limited strikes” are “short” or not. I know this is just more bluster in Trump’s pathetic flailing to construct an off ramp, but it’s insane that every time they can just pretend that they can shoot off a few “powerful” airstrikes that will do anything, and somehow Iran will just not respond?
If the USA does attack, unprovoked, it will probably be ordered because it will be profitable for a few people.
I see every USA strategic decision in this war as guided only by theft and get-rich-quick ideas.
The true stupidity, not guided by theft, is still there and will be shown repeatedly. But it only happens when the criminals loose control of the situation, and react blindly with fury and hate.
Which is why the next few months will be so dangerous, because we will see the combination of both sociopathic behaviors at their worst
They think they are being smart and strategic by announcing a “focus on the blockade”, followed by a “US retreat from the region”, followed by “most powerful strikes on Iran ever”.
Great time to be alive if you are one of the worst people on earth.
Brent and WTI Crude Oil Futures seem to be popping off, +7% today already. Snapping back to reality?
Peruvian Election Update
97.00% of the votes counted
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Keiko Fujimori (Far-Right/Fujimorism): 17.09 % +0.02%
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Roberto Sánchez (Left-Wing/Democratic Socialism, this guy is supported by Castillo): 12.04 % =0.00%
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Rafael “Porky” López Aliaga (Far-Right/Incel): 11.87 % -0.02%
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Jorge Nieto (Center-Right/Neoliberal, Nephew of Montesinos): 11.00 % -0.01%
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Ricardo Belmont (Center-Left/This is a Rich TV Owner guy who has ties with the far-left Etnocacerist movement but he’s a SocDem): 10.16 % -0.01%
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Carlos Álvarez (Right-Wing/Zelenskism): 7.90 % +0.01%
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Alfonso López Chau (Center-Left/Social Democratic): 7.32 % -0.01%
That means a run-off right?
Yes. It’s going to be between Sanchez and Keiko.
yea, Peru has a 2nd election between the 2 most popular candidates after the general
It will be interesting to see what those results are when they are done counting in 2028
an ambitious goal, I wonder if they can pull it off
lol
Etnocacerist
do they have a party or are they just a movement with influence on some candidates
They had the Union for Peru (A random socdem party that they took over) and the Peruvian Nationalist Party (Which won the 2011 elections). Afaik, UFP became the National Alliance which was banned in 2024 and their leader got pissed and decided to just join Together for Peru. And the PNP imploded due to the Carwash Operation stuff that the CIA was doing and most of their members created Together for Peru or joined one of the many satellite parties of Together for Peru.
I think all of their parties have been delisted or banned
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- Moscow will hold this year’s Victory Day parade without military equipment, largely due to Kiev’s terrorist activities: “It’s because of the current situation.”
https://tass.com/politics/2124143
This is a notable difference from last year’s parade, where they had quite a few tanks and other vehicles. That one closely resembled a pre-war parade.
In my opinion, this means they are holding any extra equipment in reserve close to the front line. Either to respond to a potential new Ukrainian offensive, or possibly to launch their own.
I’m curious on what would that look like
you don’t need equipment to respond to offensive tho, they are just playing some 3d enjoyers of infidelity games
It’s because of the current situation."
We are monitoring the situation
Ferrari race engineer voice We are checking we are checking
monitoring the orb and pondering the situation
Israeli company uses deepfake tech to generate fake Iranian SA victims.
An Israel-based AI firm, “Generative AI for Good”, claims to be using deepfake technologies for positive ends. ‘Positive’ appears to mean creating deepfake videos to help the illegal US-Israel war on Iran.
[…]
Generative AI for Good claims that it uses AI to ‘help survivors testify safely — in their real voice, without revealing their identity’. But Israel and its mouthpieces have been shown to have used false allegations ofremoveds and other atrocities on 7 October 2023 to justify its genocide in Gaza.
Gag, for short
Well, israel certainly doesn’t lack the footage of real SA victims to base their AI on.
Ukraine accuses Israel of aiding Russian trade in stolen grain
Zelensky’s warning Tuesday reflects a deepening rift between the two countries, brought to a head by the arrival in Israeli waters of a vessel named Panormitis, which entered Haifa Bay last week and is currently anchored offshore, apparently awaiting a berth. Ukraine says the ship is carrying wheat stolen from occupied Ukrainian territories and would be the second such shipment to dock and unload in Haifa this month.
In a series of forceful pushbacks, Israel’s Foreign Minister Gideon Saar accused Ukraine of engaging in “Twitter diplomacy,” saying it had not submitted evidence for its claim the grain was stolen. He also underlined that the contentious Panormitis vessel had not yet docked in Haifa, adding that Israeli tax authorities were now examining the matter.
yessss fiiighhhhttt
Nationwide USA Gas Prices: 4/29Prices up 10 cents over the last 2 days, 20 cents from a week ago.
Current Avg. $4.229
Yesterday Avg. $4.176
Week Ago Avg. $4.020
Diesel $5.464
This is the second day in a row of record prices since the war started
Current Record: $5.016 on 6/14/22
I’m in one of the highest states and I’ve yet to hear any complaints from the big dumb truck crowd. Gas prices aren’t high enough.
They won’t complain because they know their golden god is responsible.
the “economic strangulation of China” masterplan might not be working out so well… https://archive.ph/w11xR (although maybe this is just more market manipulation? “China’s going to start re-exporting oil so don’t worry about impending economic collapse please!”)
China poised to restart exporting jet fuel, diesel and gasoline
Beijing signals relaxation of export ban imposed at start of Iran conflict
more
China is poised to resume exporting jet fuel, gasoline and diesel from May, in a move that could significantly ease the worldwide shortages caused by the Iran conflict. The country’s large state oil companies have applied for export permits to ship fuel in May, according to several trading sources, signalling that a ban that was introduced at the start of the war to protect domestic supplies may be relaxed. China is the world’s biggest oil importer and a major exporter of jet fuel and diesel to Australia, Japan, Vietnam, the Philippines and Bangladesh, among other countries. Before the war began, China was exporting almost 800,000 barrels a day of refined fuels, according to data from Kpler. That total roughly halved in April. One staff member at a state oil company said the government believed that China’s own need for fuel was “stable” and it could now return to exports. One person with knowledge of China’s export intentions said Beijing wished to supply mostly jet fuel to Asian countries that are now running dangerously low, as well as some gasoline and diesel.
Asia has suffered the most from the current energy crisis, since its refineries depend heavily on imports for about 80 per cent of their supply, with the Gulf accounting for around half of that. China has already agreed to sell some fuel to countries in the region on a humanitarian basis. “A resumption of oil exports could significantly ease supply shocks in south-east Asian countries. Within Asia, China is the only country with the capacity to export at scale,” said Liao Na, founder of GL Consulting, which analyses China’s energy and industrial sectors. “The previous government-to-government support schemes between China and these countries are unlikely to be sufficient to fully cover the shortfall,” she said. One person at an international trading house said a number of state-owned Chinese refineries had already been granted fresh quotas for exports. Another said a resumption of exports from China “would go a long way” to solving some of the acute problems in the market.
The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), Beijing’s top macroeconomic planning body, could not immediately be reached for comment on Tuesday evening in China. The country’s foreign ministry did not respond to an email request for comment. Marco Dunand, chief executive of Swiss commodity trader Mercuria, said last week at the FT Commodities Global Summit in Lausanne that Chinese companies had been “aggressively selling crude oil” for the past two to three weeks, rerouting cargoes that they had bought to other countries. That may be a sign that Chinese refineries have access to oil from the country’s strategic reserves or from Iranian sellers, or it could signal optimism that the Strait of Hormuz is close to reopening, he suggested. In March, China added 40mn barrels of crude to its reserves as refineries slowed their output by roughly 1mn barrels a day. China has been deeply concerned over commodity supply risks despite amassing record stockpiles before the war. Last month, controls had also been tightened for some fertiliser blends.
Beijing has been criticised by foreign officials and analysts who argued that the export controls were poorly communicated to trading partners, and exacerbated concerns over energy supplies. Analysts had previously warned that a significant change in Beijing’s position would be unlikely unless there was a substantial resumption of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. However, during April some cargoes were shipped to Vietnam, Malaysia and Singapore, according to research group Rystad, referencing data from oil tracker Vortexa. Those exceptions, the Rystad analysts said, possibly reflected both “regional supply shortages and diplomatic considerations’’.
If they are doing that, it’s just a classic case of “buy low sell high.”
But, knowing China, they’re probably doing “buy because we’re the only ones allowed in the situation the US created, sell at minimal profit to build good bonds with the rest of the world”
https://xcancel.com/HormuzLetter/status/2049199769868800221
NEW: Pakistan has formally opened 6 overland transit corridors to Iran, with over 3,000 Iran-bound containers stuck at Pakistani ports now set to move by truck, bypassing the US naval blockade entirely, per Fars.
now, land transport can’t reach anywhere near the same volume as by sea, but it’s still something
time for the CIA to poke the Baloch separatists and see if they’ll suicide themselves to stop a couple trucks for uncle sam
considering how it went with the kurds earlier the rest of the heap of ethnic separatists in Iran might be too scared though
https://xcancel.com/SU_57R/status/2049243779685908805
🇷🇺🇺🇦 The Wall Street Journal reports that recent Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil infrastructure have had little impact on the countries energy revenues. Due to the rising price of oil, Russian oil revenues continue to increase despite Ukrainian strikes. The New York Times reports that Russian energy revenues nearly doubled in March, due to the war in Iran.
Every move the west makes hastens its demise lmao
All that talk about “40% of russias oil gone!!!” made me extremely skeptical of the claim despite not knowing anything about the context. Glad to hear my guess was accurate
https://xcancel.com/distant_earth83/status/2049212418166022604
As Russian forces tighten the encirclement around Konstantinovka, logistics problems for Kiev forces in the city are growing. The roads are littered with burned-out armored vehicles, cars, and unmanned ground systems, while personnel rotations are often being done on foot in broad daylight. In this episode, a Kiev forces infantryman was hit by a fiber-optic FPV drone “KVN” near Osykovo, on the approaches to Konstantinovka.
A tale of two countries
China orders Meta to unwind $2 billion purchase of AI startup Manus
China ordered U.S. tech giant Meta ~(META.O) , opens new tab~ to unwind its $2 billion-plus acquisition of artificial intelligence startup Manus on Monday, as Beijing tightens scrutiny of U.S. investment in domestic startups developing frontier technologies.
…The NDRC decision sends a stark warning to Chinese startups - especially in sensitive sectors such as technology - seeking to move operations to Singapore to access foreign capital, a practice often dubbed “Singapore washing”.
“I would not say this ends Chinese companies moving to Singapore. Rather, it raises the compliance threshold,” said Ben Chester Cheong, a lecturer at the Singapore University of Social Sciences.
“Companies may need to show a genuine operational shift: where management sits, where IP is owned, where R&D is conducted, where data is stored, and whether Chinese regulatory approvals are needed.”
Manus was hailed early last year by state media and commentators as China’s next DeepSeek after releasing what it said was the world’s first general AI agent. The company does not build its own AI model, but an agent framework that operates on top of existing Western large language models.
Huawei Malaysia launches first AI Lab and Innovation Centre outside China
…This also marks Huawei’s first AI-enabled industrial incubation base in Malaysia, which aims to become a platform to support the next wave of innovation in Malaysia through industrial solutions and localised AI solutions for Malaysian industries.
“One of the reasons why we chose Malaysia as a location for this is because we’re facing Malaysia’s ability to be the regional digital hub of Asean from early 3G and 4G deployment to advance the country’s 5G network. We are proud to have played important roles in Malaysia’s digital journey,” said Wind Li, global vice-president and CEO of Huawei Global Public Sector Business Unit.
Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, who inaugurated the launch, said that that AI is ushering a paradigm shift that cannot be ignored. He expressed support for the advancement of technology in Malaysia, and emphasised that governments must adapt to the change of pace and be ready to adapt when disruption comes.
…“Our emphasis is on the people, that we aim to foster economic advancement and prosperity with equity and social justice. Pursuing digital transformation driven merely by the quest for material progress will be counterproductive if it leads to the enlargement of social inequities.”
Anwar added that Malaysia will be open to investments and partnerships with companies from the East and West that respect local laws and priorities. With the AI governance framework in development, the country will focus on decisions that shape how data is governed, how AI systems are used in public institutions, and how new technologies are introduced into the lives of citizens.
iirc Malaysia also exports a lot of oil to China
PRES. TRUMP TOLD ADVISORS IN SITUATION ROOM THAT RESUMING BOMBING OR WALKING AWAY WAS RISKIER THAN EXTENDING BLOCKADE - WSJ
Looks like they’re looking to extend this stalemate. The cynical interpretation is they simply need more time to prepare for whatever plans they have and don’t want to or can’t keep selling the deal is imminent lie.
If this continues, Iran is going to have to strike first.
the only way out that isn’t politically damaging is to just wait for the news cycle to move on then quietly give up leaving behind one carrier for a veneer of plausible deniability.
Well in the past economic warfare has been successful for the US. They hope to use their strength here against a country already massively suffering under sanctions to if not collapsing it (best case) then at least inflicting enough pain they offer concessions in negotiations. It also keeps the stock market from crashing and lets them continue to manipulate and profit. Shoving the economic problems under the rug so to speak.
Wti prices should start to rise about now, if those maps of tankers going to usa are correct. Can’t paper oil your way out of delivery, although you can do other stuff for couple of weeks
“doing something is riskier than pretending to do something”
every administration has that one line which people think is stupid but is actually true.
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there are known knowns, known unknowns, and unknown unknowns
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That rumsfeld quote goes so hard
- THERE’S TOO MUCH MALARKEY!!!
Corn pop was a bad dude.
- THERE’S TOO MUCH MALARKEY!!!
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I found a YouTube link in your comment. Here are links to the same video on alternative frontends that protect your privacy:
