My weekly preamble is in spoiler tags below.
preamble
As many predicted quite early on in this conflict, the US simply does not have the stockpiles nor production lines to maintain the firing rates we saw in March and April. There’s at least five strictly military problems:
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Not enough interceptors to shoot down Iranian missiles, and many missiles get through regardless. This includes a dearth of interceptors in the Zionist entity proper.
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Not enough stand-off munitions to cause a real breakdown of Iran’s military and society. There’s enough left in the submarines and in whatever stockpiles they have mustered to give one last very serious barrage before they’re just completely out (unless they start taking all their missiles out of the Pacific and Europe), but even if this is done, this shock and awe failed the first time around, and the missile cities have proven impregnable to Western military technology.
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Not enough penetration of Iranian airspace to allow a transition from stand-off bombs to their near-endless supply of glide/gravity bombs. On the edges of Iranian territory it can be possible, but doing so any further inside causes exponential risk to the bombers. Notably, Reaper drones can carry JDAMs, hence why they continue to be used so much despite how often they’re getting shot down.
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Not enough naval power to reopen Hormuz. Otherwise, the US could hypothetically wait out Iran and exert economic and covert pressure to encourage political collapse; with Hormuz in Iran’s hands, the US’s delaying tactics favor Iran instead.
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Not enough functioning and safe bases from which to launch counterattacks. Due to debasification (a word that has now spread far and wide after Amerikanet’s coining, lol), the US has been pushed back away from the Gulf. This dangerously overpopulates rear bases with planes and makes it so sortie rates are reduced due to how much distance you have to travel and how many refuelers you need per bomber.
No angry proclamations, media offensives, or tacky AI image posts can change this reality, and boy is Trump putting out a lot of that last one. This is why, after the two weeks of attacks we just saw, we see the US very reticent to try and escalate further, and Trump’s threat over last weekend to really start bombing Iran did not occur. This is being reflected in the US media, with several worried articles talking about how there just aren’t enough missiles to keep the conflict going much longer. One of the only options left is to use ground/special forces to do… something, though pretty much no matter what target he selects, it’s hard to imagine it breaking Iran, or doing much to end the conflict, or even being a successful operation past the point where you’ve landed troops somewhere. We saw the “pilot rescue” (uranium heist) operation fail and aborted before the forces could even step foot off the runway they landed on.
It is into this environment that Ansarallah has suddenly declared a blockade of Saudi Arabia - an architect of the blockade of Yemen and one of the major causes of the country’s internal divisions between Ansarallah and comprador groups - and is turning their ships around at the entrance to the Red Sea, thereby cutting off a good chunk of the Saudi’s remaining oil exports. Ansarallah has proven they were not interested in some cautious, gradual climb up the escalation ladder; when the Saudis hit a couple Yemeni port facilities, they went ahead and hit Jazan and Yanbu so hard that the fires were still raging a day or two after the initial strikes. The US is apparently asking for the MoU back, and this time with Ansarallah also placated, but it appears Iran is much less interested in the MoU now after it was thoroughly violated by the US the first time - and if it does return to it, it might have much more hardline demands.
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The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on the Zionists’ destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Tehran is now the world’s largest city to offer free public transportation
Following the commencement of joint military operations by the U.S. and Israel against Iran in late February 2026, the Iranian government has used free transit as a tool for “civilian defence.”
Fuel Conservation: With the Strait of Hormuz blocked and international blockades on Iranian ports, the government is prioritising fuel for military and emergency services. Making public transport free incentivises citizens to leave their private cars at home, drastically reducing domestic petrol consumption.
Cost-of-Living Relief: Iran has faced a plummeting currency and soaring inflation (exacerbated by the conflict). Free transit serves as a social safety net for a population struggling with the “generational destruction” of their economy.
Social Stability: Following a wave of anti-government protests in late 2025 and early 2026, the move is seen as a way to ease public frustration and maintain urban order during a state of emergency.
The implementation has evolved from a temporary emergency measure into a potential permanent policy.
IIRC, the greatest predictor of social mobility is transportation.
Followed by education and a bunch of other stuff.
Which is also free in Iran.
More victims of the “Islamo-fascist patriarchal regime” 😞
Don’t you dare disagree with what I’ve imagined
deleted by creator
just mocking the way libs come to conclusions about ‘bad countries’
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Iran has a massive incentive to offer free public transport, given that they are providing extreme gas subsidies at the pump and that people would riot if they try to increase the gas prices at the pump.
The Presidential cabinet may be occupied by liberal market-oriented individuals who want to remove subsidies, but the Mayor of Tehran Alireza Zakani is not.
Some internal contradictions playing out and wise move of the Mayor to make this push.
I can’t believe authoritarian bad country has internal political processes and local government structures. 😞
15 minute city commies have come to Tehran
Clearly, another crime they should pay for.
if you’re wondering why the metro map looks so bad, it’s because lines 8 through 12 don’t actually exist yet. i didn’t even know they plan to expand it by 5 lines.
It does look really weird the more I look at the map. If it wasn’t posted by official news outlet I’d wonder if it was AI. Why aren’t the lines straight
This. They took the current map and shoehorned in those five planned lines. Still has some inconsistencies in the angle of the diagonals
but at what cost??
How likely are they to keep it free after the war?
No clue. We will just have to wait 5 years to find out I suppose
5 years
Lebanese Journalist Marwa Osman says there will be at least one maybe a few more MOU-style agreements that function as pauses between escalations.
I do not see this conflict as a war that ends. I see it as a war that pauses on all fronts.
Each ceasefire becomes a strategic intermission rather than an actual political resolution. Each agreement buys time instead of trust. And each successive round leaves all sides more deeply trapped in a cycle of escalation.
If this pattern continues, I believe this will not be the last memorandum. There will likely be another, and perhaps another after that. But unless something fundamentally changes, each pause will simply lay the groundwork for an even more dangerous confrontation.
My assessment is that we are not watching a conflict winding down. We are watching one climbing a staircase, in a slow agonizing fashion. Agonizing for folks who lost their livelihoods for destruction or occupation, folks who are still displaced and folks who are still dieing or losing loved ones in these on-again off-again rounds.
The Hundred Years’ War had many long truces and other interruptions. Hopefully this doesn’t take anywhere near that or other similar feuds.
Curious how many of those 50+ year conflicts were started with a battle that the people leading thought would be a quick little thing.
The Iranians would have every right to stop negotiating and deal utter defeat to the Americans. And I don’t see why don’t they as they have the upper hand.
They are probably getting some, or all, of America’s comprador states to the negotiating table and discussing terms of normalizing relations that include sending the U.S packing - no honor among thieves after all-. Is only that they hold so many U.S assets which makes it difficult to announce as a huge victory.
And I don’t see why don’t they as they have the upper hand.
Because the pauses are also in their favor. The US can’t refill its oil fast enough or build weapons fast enough. Eventually one veggie will stick because the US simply can’t fight, and Iran gets control of the strait and becomes a real global power.
Exactly. If Iran and Palestine were lucky this war would’ve started much later - as the US would’ve inevitably degraded in military and logistical capabilities anyways.
All in time for the late Khamenei’s prediction that Israel would be gone by 2040.
It sounds about right.
Iran-Iraq war was 8 years.
Everyone in the region - including Israel and the US have commented over the years that Iran is a country that can take punishment.
Remember that one Israel who said the euphoria (literally אופוריה) of the war (12 day war) wore off when they realized Iran was still going because of how the Shia were?
Based :3
New “but at what cost” just dropped in this morning’s Economist Espresso.
A sweeping protection campaign launched in 2021, which includes a ban on fishing [in the Yangtze river], appears to be working. Fish biomass, the estimated total weight of all the fish in the river, has more than trebled in recent years after seven decades of decline. Meanwhile, a much greater share of fish are reaching reproductive maturity, a milestone which bodes well for future stocks. The recovery will allow China to cast itself as a champion of biodiversity. It is likely to gloss over the human cost: some 230,000 fishermen have lost their jobs.
I love this idea that China can merely “cast itself” as a champion of biodiversity, despite the entire article being about how China is indeed doing things that one would expect if they were a champion of biodiversity. It’s like saying, “This woman ran into a burning building and saved four children from the flames, allowing her to cast herself as a hero.” Insane journalistic ramblings.
some 230,000 fishermen have lost their jobs.
Do they think these fishermen will be able to fish in waterways which contain no fish? Western propaganda is so ridiculous
The ban on fishing happened 5 years ago. Presumably if the journalist gave a shit they could go investigate the stories of a few of those 230,000 fishermen and see how they have done since then
carpoftruth
You clearly have ulterior motives, CCP spy!
It is likely to gloss over the human cost
the exact phrase “but at what cost” has become too on the nose lately, but Western media just can’t help itself lol here are some other suggestions
“However, the human cost has been disregarded.”
“This advancement, however, is likely to have a human cost.”
“[…], but Chinese citizens will now be burdened with the cost of development.”
“Now, Chinese citizens will pay the hidden price of green technology.”
this last one even avoids “cost”! I’m a genius journalist, I should be the editor-in-chief of the Economist
“The Chinese Communist Party prioritizes its greenwashing reputation over the lives of its citizens, revealing the depravity of their regime.”
“In an attempt at coercing Chinese citizens into complying with government mandates, the CCP has intensified its efforts to provide higher living standards to the population at large. Specialists have raised further concerns that Mr. Xi Jinping’s push towards giving every person in China a talking, magical, wish-granting unicorn will exact a heavy toll on the country’s strategic mana reserve.”
trebled
Ahh… so they’re all about that bass then.
Well they’re restoring the fish population at a record pace so I can’t see them hating bass.
Hungary is shutting down its only nuclear power plant because the Danube is so low that the river-cooled power plant can no longer operate its pumps to cool itself. Blocks are being shut down rapidly, with all remaining pumpable water reserved for cooling the shut down blocks and operating the maybe 1-2 blocks that can still run, but they’re also either down by now or due to shut down soon.
This is on the Danube, one of the biggest rivers of europe.
The power plant is responsible for about 40-50% of Hungary’s electricity supply. The grid is stable so far, because they’ve spun up every god damned alternative thing we have, even the ones in very bad shape. I guess it’s gas? I dont know if we still have coal power plants. Possibly.
If the lower Danube dies, it’s fucking lights out for most of its basin.
edit: i’m watching some videos by people concerned about and deep into the hydrology of the carpathian basin and its desertification and soil loss and they’re basically saying that we’ve been actively and industrially murdering the land since sometime in the 1700s.
Iraq arrested Kiev regime linked militants that carried out attacks inside the country:
The Iraqi authorities have busted several militant cells linked to Ukraine that were involved in multiple attacks within the country, according to National Security Adviser Qasim al-Aboudi.
“We arrested a limited number of groups that carried out attacks inside Iraqi territory and targeted several facilities. During questioning, they confessed to working for Ukraine,” al-Aboudi said.
https://www.rt.com/news/643582-ukraine-militants-iraq-attacks/
Hundreds of Jordanian political, legal, and public figures have signed an open letter demanding the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Jordan They call the American presence a security, political, and economic risk pulling the country into a war it wants no part of. Most Jordanian outlets refuse to publish the letter, and organizers warn signatories could be jailed. – New York Times
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/ukraine-population/
About 52 million people lived in Ukraine in 1991. Back in May, Denys Uliutin, Ukraine’s Minister of Social Policy, said the country now only has about 22 to 25 million residents.
Things are going great! Ukraine will obviously win!
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko shared his thoughts on the US and China:
“Thanks to Donald Trump. He is a more open politician, perhaps even excessively open. Now we understand what US policy toward other countries is really about. Do you now understand what they wanted from us? Oil, money… If there is no oil, they bomb. He openly says that he has no real interest in Venezuela itself, only in its oil. I understood this long ago, but I could not say it publicly,” Lukashenko said during a meeting in Brest.
As an example of a wise and pragmatic model of national development, Lukashenko pointed to China, noting that, unlike the post-Soviet states, it had continued to strengthen the Communist Party and its system of governance. The Belarusian president placed particular emphasis on the role of Chinese President Xi Jinping, saying that he had successfully combined the experience of the past with the demands of the present to achieve tangible results.
“The Chinese acted with remarkable wisdom. We need to study their experience because it produces results,” Belarusian presidential press service quoted Lukashenko as saying.
Regarding the recent migrant wave sent by Morocco to Spain :
Last month I wrote a comment pointing out the US participation in the opening up of a corruption case against the former PSOE leader and ex-president José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, and explained how this points to election interference against the socialdemocrats in Spain by NATO due to Spain’s recent positively surprising attitudes in terms of international politics.
Since then, and despite FIFA’s best efforts in the final, Spain won the world football cup, which has been a huge morale boost for the country and likely ameliorated tensions in national politics, relevant when we have elections next year. Possibly for this reason, the NATO block has decided an emergency measure against Pedro Sánchez’s popularity: firing a migrant wave against Spain’s borders.
I will start by condemning the deplorable actions of all border guards on both countries, bunch of murderous pigs and bloodthirsty reactionaries. Shame on the EU for paying up Morocco to brutalize migrants as a way of preventing them from reaching Spain, and shame on Morocco for carrying out this role. My heart goes to the many migrants murdered both in this wave and all migrants routinely being abused and murdered by the state apparatus of said countries.
However it’s also important to understand that, as I discussed over a month ago already, the NATO block won’t simply close their arms and wait, they need to make it clear that the lukewarmest social-democracy isn’t sufficient, it needs full support to all ongoing genocidal actions of the empire, which the right wing in the PP and Vox are more than happy to oblige to.
When you discuss this topic with libs, make them see the obvious and blatant election interference in Spain by the US and Israel (surprise! not Le Ebil Ruzzians or eco-authoritarian China). NATO stands against democracy, will attempt to eliminate any even minuscully progressive movement through whatever means it wants. Be very explicit of the mchanisms through which this is obvious election interference, and ask whether similar but much harsher tactics are deployed in Venezuela or Cuba. Frame this as what it Is: blatant election interference
https://xcancel.com/MenchOsint/status/2082496676640530700
A US-owned LNG carrier was hit by a Drone in the Egyptian port of Damietta in the Mediterranean Sea. Possibly the “ENERGOS WINTER” operated by “WILHELMSEN SHIP MGMT LTD-USA” that have left the port following the reported attack, and is now anchored off the coast.
the crank map… it’s growing…
Chip stocks (everything from ASML to SK Hynix and Micron) have already wiped out almost $1 trillion in stock market value today.
A smaller reason for that is that they are overvalued, the big reason is that China has reportedly started mass production of its own DUV (immersion deep ultraviolet lithography) machines. AMSL could be making hundreds of billions of $$$ by selling their own EUV machines to China this entire time. But the US told them no and China was forced to start developing their own. Now AMSL has lost a lot of money and is about to lose market share. It was a huge lose-lose decision. Quite funny.
China begins making homegrown DUV chipmaking tools, The Information reports
[edit] Reportedly CXMT is on the priority list to get the new DUV machines as early as next month. Now we have two hopes for lower memory prices by this time next year - either the AI bubble implodes or CXMT goes brrrrrr
Honestly serves them right. I remember watching a video where someone from ASML explained they didn’t expect anyone to be able to copy their technology any time soon, because it’s so complicated. They underestimated China.
ASML explained they didn’t expect anyone to be able to copy their technology any time soon, because it’s so complicated.
How do these people think they came up with the technology if it’s impossible for anyone else to replicate? It’s like they’ve all completely internalized comic book tech hero logic with a big dollop of racism mixed in.
These people still spout the “Chinese people don’t know how to invent anything, they only know how to copy others” nonsense like it’s the 2000s, despite getting lapped by China in STEM and tech IP for the last decade.
The US could be post apocalyptic with straight up mad max gangs and you’d still get mfers thinking that all the while China exists in arcologies and is exploring space among the shattered ruins of the West. Western European exceptionalism is legit brainrot that is the main cause for kkkrackers crashing out as their quality of life gets consumed by capital (you can see this in boomers trying to rationalize having data centers built near them and their bills going up).
It goes to show how much western superiority in technology is predicated on colonialist unequal exchange more so than anything.
China already used their ability points on state infrastructure, so none left to do tech.
“what do you mean they outleveled us and just have more ability points to spend?”
ASML builds the best EUV machines on the planet but the entire country of Netherlands has to punch trees to cut them down.
Their bird mana
Euros think they are smarter than anyone else, because the only other people they are willing to talk to are Americans, so they assume the rest of the world is even dumber than that.
They underestimated China.
Racism is expensive.
either the AI bubble implodes or CXMT goes brrrrrr
porque no los dos?
I’m once again reminded of this decade-old article from The Pirate Book: “Bandits Brought Technology To This World”
https://web.archive.org/web/20260224140632/https://thepiratebook.net/shanzhai
By 2028 cheap and ubiquitous tech built on open standards and end-user functionality from China and its partners in BRICS comes to dominate the global tech sector.China might save the world from technological collapse by distributing chips production outside of a few fragile supply chains.
obviously EUVs are around the corner
I like that you can make EUV machines with particle accelerators if you don’t care about portability. The only reason ASML has a monopoly on the tech is because they need to be able to pack it up onto a container and put on a ship/plane. If you don’t care about that though you can just build the factory on top of the particle accelerator.
Isn’t China building this right now?
yep that’s why I mentioned it
Considering that a working Chinese EUV machine was up and running last year it appears we’re about half way around that corner already all that’s left is to print some chips which shouldn’t be too much longer, estimates put it between 2028 and 2030 (if not sooner).
like the moon landings
I don’t have time to read up and write a list but I know there’s a number of huge achievements, projects and technologies that will all be symbolic turning points that sort of cement China surpassing the US between the 2028-2030 time range.
They’ve already overtaken american rockets with the 10B. their engineering discipline and industrial capacity (also ironically a more dynamic market) makes it inevitable that they’ll outstrip them now.
even if the AI bubble pops, all of production has been pre-sold until at least 2028, and it’s mostly datacenter chips so no consumer memory until then. the only hope is CXMT right now.
‘Exasperated’ Trump battles with White House officials ‘over Iran strategy’
An unnamed ally of the president has told NBC News: "The president is exasperated. I don’t think he believed it was going to be this difficult to get the Iranians to agree to a deal.
“After all this time, there is no unity,” the official said. “We have had a series of tactical victories but are facing a strategic defeat without clear policy guidance or a decision about where this is going.”
The source told NBC that Trump had “erupted” during a meeting with his top national security team last week and had even yelled expletives at those present.
Pretty crazy leaked photo from one of these sessions:
F-35B stealth fighter crashed in California, US Marine Corps says
must have put too many plates on the radar mount. Ego lifting is dangerous folks
A little Strait of Hormuz shipping update:
All vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz over the past three days have used the corridor designated by Tehran, with no ship using a US-promoted route near Oman’s coast, according to data by maritime intelligence firm Marisks.
The group announced on Monday that 78 vessels, including 20 Iranian-flagged, have been observed crossing the Strait of Hormuz since Saturday, CNN reported.
It said all 58 non-Iranian vessels transiting the strategic waterway used the Iranian-designated corridor, while none were recorded using the southern route promoted by the US military as an alternative shipping lane.
https://www.presstv.co.uk/Detail/2026/07/27/773185/Iran-US-Hormuz-Oman
Is this an indication that the US blockade of Iran is also paused? Seems like that’s what this implies.
did it ever begin?
Mashallah
