Below is my weekly summary/preamble, spoilered so that you can get down into the comments more easily.
preamble
I don’t think I’ve ever seen a ceasefire that, for weeks, is so obviously about to be broken at any given moment and yet nonetheless continues. So-called Operation Freedom may mark a resumption of hostilities, as the US seems to once again be trying an active role in attempting to take control of the Strait of Hormuz. The initial, ridiculous claim was that the US Navy would itself be escorting ships (i.e. just getting your destroyers sunk for no reason), and as expected, this was just said to try and calm markets. Nonetheless, there is reporting that other military measures may be taken against Iran soon if they continue to keep the Strait closed, so we’ll see how that all goes.
US gas prices at the pump have hit close to record high numbers, and generally the average citizen is growing mightily displeased with Trump, even those in previously safe demographics. Unfortunately, this discontent is not immediately geopolitically relevant - as both parties are staffed from top to bottom with pro-war Zionists with only a small group of exceptions, and third parties will necessarily never be allowed to take power, there is no way for US public discontent to manifest itself in a change of policy. What is more likely to cause changes in policy will be grumbling from American capitalists, of which there are many factions. The fossil fuel capitalists seem perfectly content for this situation to continue indefinitely, with record profits. I imagine the financial sector is pretty nervous, but aren’t currently demanding Trump cease fire - same for the tech industry which has now been engulfed in AI, as the bubble seems to be close to, but not quite, popping. Smaller businesses and agriculture are perhaps the most likely to be crying uncle, but may have limited representation.
Going back to Western Asia, the situation from last week has remained broadly the same. The Zionist tactic in Southern Lebanon appears to essentially be “If we can’t occupy this land, then you won’t be able to, either,” as they are doing their utmost to physically destroy as many towns and villages on the border as possible. Hezbollah’s success at keeping Zionist territorial gains fairly minimal, and the growing onslaught of not only anti-tank guided missiles but also FPV drones causing chaos where the Zionists attempt to hold and advance, have, I believe, partially contributed to Iran not pushing the issue of a comprehensive ceasefire in Lebanon so far as to cause them to feel the need to resume fire on the occupied territories.
The US blockade has truly been a mixed affair. While it’s obviously quite leaky and many Iranian ships are getting through, Naked Capitalism and others have pointed out that it’s not just Iranian ships that are transporting goods, and that there are ~70 Chinese ships with Iranian oil that are much less willing to risk running the blockade. But, once again, the success of the blockade isn’t all that relevant. Iran has experienced periods of a couple years straight without meaningful oil exports and survived, and their extensive land borders make a true siege impossible - goods can and are still pouring into the country, and with Pakistan recently allowing Iranian exports through their border, as well as the Caspian Sea in the north and Iran’s railway link to China, Iranian exports can still leave just fine. Another interesting indication is that China’s government has ordered Chinese businesses to ignore US sanctions against Iranian oil, so we’ll see how that develops. And while the issue of maintaining sufficient public cohesion in the wake of economic suffering is a potential long term problem, we haven’t yet seen any meaningful scenes of public discontent inside Iran. Internal unity appears to be staying at record levels in the face of total war.
Even being as careful as possible to check my own biases, it’s difficult for me to form any other conclusion other than that Iran is winning, and people like Armchair Warlord have even pointed out that American tactical victories have been pretty minimal so far.
Last week’s thread is here.
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The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on the Zionists’ destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Al Jazeera update - Oil prices have risen sharply as the deadlock between the US and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz turns to violence, casting doubt over the durability of the ceasefire between Tehran and Washington. Brent crude, the benchmark for oil prices worldwide, rose by nearly 6 percent on Monday to $114.44 a barrel.
While Brent futures eased somewhat early on Tuesday morning – trading at $113.54 as of 02:00 GMT – analysts say the market is pricing oil higher as the threat of renewed fighting mounts, amid missile and drone attacks on the UAE and US claims of its forces sinking Iranian military fast boats in the strait.
The cruise ship at the center of a deadly outbreak of hantavirus has been refused permission to dock, with nearly 150 people still on board — two of them seriously ill.
The virus is suspected to have killed three passengers and sickened four more, with one patient hospitalized in critical condition, authorities said.
The cruise operator, Oceanwide Expeditions, had said in a statement earlier Monday that the ship may sail from Cape Verde to Las Palmas or Tenerife in the Canary Islands and dock there.
Just gonna never go on a cruise, I think.
What did he know
PUTRAJAYA: The government has decided that B15 biodiesel must be produced through 19 plants beginning June 1, as part of efforts to lower diesel prices in the country, says Deputy Prime Minister Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi.
He said the move is crucial to help stabilise fuel costs and will be implemented in stages.
"It will start with B15 and gradually increase to B20. "Subsequently, within the next two to three years, it may go up to B50. "
We are doing this in phases to ensure that crude palm oil (CPO) prices will not burden biodiesel production," he said on Monday (May 4).”
Ahmad Zahid, who is also Rural and Regional Development Minister, said large-scale production is expected to reduce operating costs and in turn lower overall fuel prices.
“There are currently 19 biodiesel production plants ranging from B15 to B50. We will utilise sludge or by-products from CPO production, where about 35% of the sludge will be fully used to produce biofuel as well as Jet A1 fuel,” he said.
So the (Malaysian) Oil Palm industry, endlessly slandered by European agro-industrialists and their pseudo-left environmentalist NGOs and academic “degrowth” scholars, has again been shown to provide long-term strategic gains by Malaysia.
Never take development advice from the colonizers.
Palm plantations are, like any industrially farmed monoculture, not great environmentally. This isn’t any feather in the cap of the overall euro/anglo environmental track record, mind you. The corporate/imperial media is always selective about which environmental causes are worthy of coverage.
Palms are naively the most efficient oil producer. In general oil production is tremendously burdensome.
Much of the issues come from the places they grow being super valuable and delicate ecosystems.
Unfortunately “externalities” like this don’t get priced in and it’s not like anyone is offering them help developing down other — less destructive — paths.
The issue firstly is the assumption that all palm oil plantations were pristine rainforest. This isn’t true. Many were previously dilapidated sites from colonial era plantations, namely rubber. And besides, the government has held a moratorium on new palm oil plantations for more than 10 years.
Secondly, Oil Palm was one of the great success stories in Malaysia’s industrialization story that ultimately made the country retain net food exporter unlike the often touted industrial successes of Japan, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan, which are all major food importers to a large extent. As you mentioned, it is because the perennial crop is inherently more productive versus than that of seasonal monoculture farms found in Europe and North America.
Thirdly, through the Felda programme, an agro-industrial policy that vastly improved the livelihoods of smallholder farmers and rural lives, through basically Malaysia’s only version of land reform, which involved training farmers and organizing rural villages with modern infrastructure and a central mill for processing the fruit palm, while combining it with scale.
These discussions are never had in Western circles, which solely focuses on environmental issues instead of talking about sovereignty and productive capacity building ie. development, among it’s numerous contradictions.
No one talks about how Malaysia basically nationalised their agro-industry instead of being beholden to Western foreign corporations like we see in African countries. And it was innovations funded by Malaysian R&D, and ultimately the surplus by Malaysian workers and farmers, that provided the necessary global footprint of this oilcrop that profoundly feeds Global South mouths and reducing the cost of global social reproduction.
yeah capitalists love full employment, that’s why they’re always trying to get rid of the reserve army of labor that underpins their profits by keeping wages down
Trumpism-Keynesianism
Comrade Trump leading the global green revolution and reinventing the WPA
The mush that was his brain is now dry as a bone. Our boy is dry inside and out l:
Warrem Mosler ftw
Another “explosive” video from the soldiers of God, Islamic Resistance in Lebanon Hezbollah.
https://t.me/C_Military1/87530
⭕️Video | Footage of the Islamic Resistance targeting an Israeli enemy army engineering vehicle in the city of Bint Jbeil, southern Lebanon, with a loitering ramming attack.
I’d say he dug his own grave but he’s leaving Lebanon in a bucket 😁
They’re literally using standard construction equipment and even leaving the cab doors open in a war zone…Holy shit lmao what a bunch of clueless clowns
I think Hezbollah and Hamas destroyed so many D9 that this is what they have left to destroy houses and dig up cemeteries with.
deleted by creator
Nationwide USA Gas Prices: 5/4Gasoline up 1 cent today. Diesel is holding steady
We will see what tomorrow holds
Gasoline $4.457
Yesterday Avg. $4.446
February 26 (Pre War) $ $2.983
Current Gas Record: $5.016 on 6/14/22
Diesel $5.641
Yesterday Avg. $5.642
February 26 (Pre War) $3.720
Current Diesel Record: $5.816 on 6/19/22
This is the seventh day in a row of a new wartime high
rare w for my past self for buying a used Chevy Bolt a few years back
The last tanker from the Middle East arrived in California two days ago. About ~2 weeks until it is gone. Without the easier to refine Middle Eastern crude, refineries might start to have some problems with refining. Diesel output should decrease faster than gasoline output.
Really wondering how that’s gonna go in California, I assume they’ll suspend whatever special blend laws they have for one. Wonder if California is setup to feel the pain first, which I’m sure the hogs will love
1-3 tankers got through the blockade today according to another post in this thread
Even if they did (IIRC at least one was a cargo ship), they are probably going someplace else. If they are going to the US, they will take a while to arrive. And a couple of ships won’t make much of a difference on that timescale.
I spend about 15 dollars more on gas per week than I did last year
I did this!
IRGC defines new maritime control zone in Strait of Hormuz
Tehran reportedly gave Washington one month to end the Hormuz blockade and all regional wars before nuclear talks could begin
Guardian update - Shipping company Maersk has said that one of its US-flagged commercial vessels successfully exited the strait of Hormuz under US military protection on Monday. In a statement, Maersk said the transit of the Alliance Fairfax vessel was “completed without incident, and all crew members are safe and unharmed”. The vessel, Maersk siad, had been unable to leave the Gulf since February, when the war began.
Earlier, US Central Command said that two US-flagged merchant vessels had crossed through the strait of Hormuz as US Navy guided-missile destroyers operate in the Gulf.
If this is true Iran needs to reassert control immediately
Is it possible Trump got tired of the word “obliterated”?
Guardian update - [Trump] warned Iran that its forces will be “blown off the face of the earth” if they attempt to target US vessels guiding ships through the strait of Hormuz as part of so-called “Project Freedom”. In an interview with Fox News, Trump also said he sees two paths forward in his war: either reaching a good faith deal or resuming military operations.
He told Fox News that the ongoing US naval blockade was “one of the greatest military maneuvers ever done” and that the Iranians were being “far more malleable” in recent talks than before. Trump caused worldwide outrage the last time he made similar threats, writing on social media last month that “a whole civilisation will die” if Iran failed to comply with his demands. He also previously threatened to bomb Iran “back to the Stone Ages” and to blow up all of the country’s bridges and power plants.
Under pressure for making threats that would potentially constitute war crimes under international law if acted on, Trump ended up extending his deadline (again) and eventually the ceasefire was announced.
-–
Edit
Back at the White House, Donald Trump again belittled Iran’s military capabilities, referring to the conflict as a “mini war” and suggesting that the US should’ve seized Iran’s ships rather than blowing them up.
https://xcancel.com/bonzerbarry/status/2051386580984611269
Fars: A military informed source: The fire in the UAE was the result of the US Army’s adventurism
Following the explosion and widespread fire at the oil facilities of Fujairah port and the attribution of it to the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran, a military informed official said: The Islamic Republic had no pre-planned program to attack the mentioned oil facilities, and what happened was the result of the US Army’s adventurism to create a passage for the illegal transit of ships through the forbidden routes of the Strait of Hormuz, and the US Army must be held accountable for it. US statesmen must end the ugly behavior of using force in diplomacy and cease military adventurism in this sensitive oil region that affects the economy of all countries worldwide.
heating up again?
By the Guardian
“UAE schools move to remote learning until at least Friday following latest Iranian attacks Schools in the United Arab Emirates are shifting to remote learning this week following Iran’s renewed attacks on Monday. The UAE’s ministry of education said in a statement that public and private schools and nurseries would operate remotely from Tuesday to Friday “out of concern for the safety of students and all those working in the education sector”. “The current situation will be reassessed on Friday, May 8, 2026, if there is a need to extend the period,” it added.”
Things are hot again with Iran versus UAE
Also Trump will speak today at a bussiness summit so if there is updates on Iran from him maybe he will deliver there.
https://xcancel.com/bonzerbarry/status/2051378783538577463
The Emirati defense system detected 12 ballistic missiles, 3 cruise missiles, and 4 UAVs today.
A seventh attack wave detected in the UAE now
keep those numbers going!
From what I hear the Americans were running the blockade and Iran fired rocket artillery, they posted several videos of katyusha looking things, at ships near uae waters, one of the (us navy) ships was likey hit. The oil facility was hit by uaes own interceptors.
It also explains why the uae were using iron dome interceptors since they are meant for low calibre rocket artillery, and not heavier missiles.
Journalist arrested by Israel returned to Chile and denounced torture - Prensa Latina
Article
Santiago, Chile, May 4 (Prensa Latina) Chilean journalist Macarena Chahuán, arrested by Israel while participating in the Gaza Flotilla, returned to the country today, where she denounced torture applied by Tel Aviv against members of the humanitarian convoy.
Israel cannot continue to act with total impunity, the activist said upon her arrival at the Arturo Merino Benítez International Airport.
The journalist was arrested last week along with some 200 volunteer members of the Global Sumud Flotilla, when armed forces intercepted about twenty of the 58 boats carrying aid for the Palestinian population.
They took us all hostage to a very large ship that looked like a concentration camp, and there were three containers inside. We couldn’t all sleep inside because there wasn’t enough room, he told the press.
He reported that they were exposed to extreme heat and cold, and that many of his colleagues suffered beatings.
A total of seven Chileans were traveling in the expedition that intended to break the blockade imposed by Tel Aviv on the Palestinian territory.
At a press conference here, Nelson Hadad, the legal representative of the Chilean delegation in the Sumud Global Flotilla, described the attack on the convoy carrying aid for the Gaza Strip, where many Palestinian children are dying of starvation, as an inhumane and abominable act.
The former diplomat also recalled that the attack violated international law and the Law of the Sea Convention, which in its article 87 guarantees free navigation in a peaceful and tranquil manner through international waters.
Argentinians are tired of Javier Milei’s government, says poll - Prensa Latina
Article
Buenos Aires, May 4 (Prensa Latina) 71.2 percent of Argentinians now want a change of government, according to a new survey released today by the Zuban-Córdoba consultancy, which also shows that rejection of Javier Milei’s government administration stands at 64.5 percent.
The national survey also found that the performance of the president, his sister and Secretary General of the Presidency, Karina Milei, and the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo, is equally disapproved of by 64.5 percent.
Zuban-Córdoba points out in his report that only 34.3 percent of the public approves of the executive’s work
The consulting firm emphasizes in its report the importance of these numbers “not because the percentages have changed dramatically compared to the previous month, but because a trend is consolidating” in the disapproval of the administration headed by President Javier Milei.
This imbalance (64.5% disapproval and only 34.3% approval) shows a government with serious political problems halfway through its term, the report says.
The data from the nationwide survey conducted from April 25 to May 1 further reaffirm a divide that the government is unable to bridge: almost 70 percent of women reject the libertarian approach, almost 10 points higher than the disapproval rating for men.
“This is not a circumstantial fact or statistical noise; it is a structural signal that any libertarian electoral strategy must process, because without regaining ground in that segment it will be difficult to move the ceiling of 2027,” the polling firm points out.
Within the ruling party itself, the image of the government team shows another uncomfortable paradox: the one who comes out best is Patricia Bullrich, with a negative image of 55.5 percent, and not the President, whose negative image rises to 60.6 points.
The rest of the official figures - Karina Milei and the Chief of Staff, Manuel Adorni, who have over 65 percent negative image - are accumulating a decline that is no longer just presidential, but extends to the entire political and communication structure of the La Libertad Avanza government, warns Zúban-Córdoba.
One relevant fact stands out: 71.2 percent of Argentinians believe that a change of government is needed, and estimate that in a political context, that figure would be read as the obituary of an administration.
However, the polling firm points out that there is a complex scenario because while a solid majority wants change, this does not mean that they know who should lead it or that they trust any concrete alternative that would allow them to choose a different path than the current government’s proposal.
According to Zúban-Cordoba, the LLA government with Milei at the helm lost the political initiative, but the opposition has yet to find its footing,” and he reasons that in this tie of weaknesses, “whoever first manages to articulate a proposal that combines credibility and broad acceptance will have an advantage that no actor in the political system has today.”
doesn’t matter@got 50 billion more in debt.
btw, why do graphs of argentinian debt to gdp go sharply down in 2024, did their gdp inscreased suddenly or what? cause nominal debt doesn’t change that much
Perhaps some of the debt was denominated in Argentinian currency and, when the heavy inflation took place, the debt didn’t follow? Just speculation.
Pentagon claims they hit 6 Iranian missile speedboats this morning, ending the ceasefire. This would explain renewed Iranian attacks on the UAE. The Fujairah oil terminal is still on fire.
why would they admit that lol, seems like a free propaganda win to say “Iran didn’t respect the ceasefire and attacked the UAE! We bombed the speedboats afterwards”
100IQ PLAY
for example the guardian is talking that Iran may have hit a US ship and the guardian is affirming it.
The real truth??China does nothing and wins
The ceasefire has been over. The US declared a unilateral ceasefire that Iran never negotiated, but Iran also saw no reason to make the war hot again if the US wasnt bombing tbem
