Vietnam is already seen as part of the Sino world, only Westerners think otherwise. The (derogatory?) implications of being cast as Southeast Asian is noted though - very typical for these sort of commentators.

In reality Southeast Asia doesn’t exist, and even if it did, it’d be split into three parts, Maritime Southeast Asia (Nusantara/the Malay World), Mainland Southeast Asia (buddhist regions stretching from Burma to Laos), and Vietnam. This is due to history. Only international school kids and liberals think of themselves as “southeast asian”. I use it purely as a geographical marker but without claim to any pretensions of a larger cultural unity.

Thailand’s manufacturing industry is suffering but it is still the second largest in the Southeast Asia. The main point of contention is this recency bias - “factionalism of the past 20-30years” - which showcases the sort of fake analysis so common these days. It may sound profound but doesn’t actually tell you much. Like saying “just pursue manufacturing bro”.

Questions people should be asking:

• what was different about Thailand’s industrial policy from the other Asian tigers?
• Why did tourism become the main source of livelihoods, especially in rural areas and the islands?
• What were the class structures that influenced the behaviour of state, industrial and financial capital throughout 20th and 21st century Thailand?
• What was the role of China, the world bank and IMF in the Asian Financial Crisis that affected Thailand first?

Vietnam is likely to become the last country in the world to go from poor to developed

???

OP is basing “poor” and “development” just on GDP per capita figures and thinks that is be end and end all of “development”. But I can’t expect much from someone who the day before was doing psychoanalysis about Maduro having to switch from a life of luxury to living in US prisons and implying he might suicide lol and that instead of being addicted to power you should just become a merchant (the irony of someone saying that an advocating for manufacturing is not lost on me).

It’s all vibes based analysis from these people.

Anwar’s statement

I have followed developments in Venezuela with grave concern. The leader of Venezuela and his wife were seized in a United States military operation of unusual scope and nature. Such actions constitute a clear violation of international law and amount to an unlawful use of force against a sovereign state.

President Maduro and his wife must be released without any undue delay. Whatever may be the reasons, the forcible removal of a sitting head of government through external action sets a dangerous precedent. It erodes fundamental restraints on the use of power between states and weakens the legal framework that underpins international order.

It is for the people of Venezuela to determine their own political future. As history has shown, abrupt changes in leadership brought about through external force will bring more harm than good, what more in a country already grappling with prolonged economic hardship and deep social strain.

Malaysia regards respect for international law and sovereignty as paramount to peaceful relations between states. Constructive engagement, dialogue and de-escalation remain the most credible path towards an outcome that protects civilians and allows Venezuelans to pursue their legitimate aspirations without further harm.

This response is expected for anyone bothered to read the country’s history in the last 50 years instead of repeating old retellings of anti-communist things that happened 70 years ago.

Westerners mad that global south countries do not recognize unilateral sanctions nor care about liberal antics. Personally, I applaud the industrious and entrepreneurial spirit of all the people involved in the transhipment of Venezeulan and Iranian oil in Malaysian waters.

So what you’re saying is… infrastructure buildup requires long-term engagement and investment? It’s not like the funny paradox game where after capturing the war goal/capital I can just take all their resources?

‘Dead’ town: At Kelantan-Thailand border, Malaysia’s drug war unsettles residents, businesses

Malaysia is building both walls and bridges along its porous northern border with Thailand, determined to deter rampant smuggling while boosting economic ties. In the first of a two-part series, CNA explores how Malaysia is preventing illicit goods from reaching its shores, and the ground impact of these efforts.

Context being the Northern rural states also have the highest drug addiction rates in the country. Economic development and curtailing flow forms part of the strategy to eradicate substance (mis)use since the border up North is where most drugs enter Peninsular Malaysia.

New border bridge, rail link: Malaysia, Thailand eye deeper economic ties in border regions, but hurdles remain

In the second of a two-part series, CNA looks at joint economic projects in the pipeline, and how political and security challenges might scupper them.

There’s video versions of the articles aswell. Very hefty articles, providing accounts from officials and locals from both sides of the border, talking about the economy, building walls, bridges, railway, bombings and smuggling. The counter-insurgency narrative is a given for something coming from Mediacorp, but the history of the BRN (National Revolutionary Front) and the role of (political) Islam in the Southern Thai provinces and Northern Malaysian states is too much to talk about here.

Random things I found interesting

“Malaysians are coming to the Thai border towns and purchasing chicken burgers until the shelves are empty,” he said, his voice tinged with astonishment as he referred to the ready-to-eat snack easily prepared in a microwave.

When my family visited Thailand last month, they brought over atleast like 12 of these burgers. The fridge was full of them. They do taste pretty good - slightly better than the McDonald ones, and about 1usd each so way cheaper. Didn’t realize it was a trendy thing to do.

As for transportation links, Malaysia and Thailand have agreed to revive the Bangkok-Butterworth train service on the west coast. There is also talk of extending Malaysia’s upcoming East Coast Rail Link (ECRL) to Thailand via Rantau Panjang and Sungai Golok.

If the new double tracking proposals for Thailand’s Southern provinces comes through, this will leave the last bottleneck of the Singapore-Kunming line resolved (…by 2031).

The limits of reform: 2025 Malaysia news roundup

Malaysia’s Prime Minister is more akin to that of Lula, but this may not seem immediately obvious due to the nature of the respective countries in the capitalist world economy. The centrist coalition, incapable at mobilising structural changes in the economy, resorts to small reforms to stitch over the wounds while delaying the inevitable.

Increases in the minimum wage, instituting a voluntary progressive wage policy and civil servant salary raises were parts of the government’s policy in improving salaries after decades of continual stagnation. Greater push for TVET education and gradual educational reform, with emphasis on STEM and trilingual mastery of Malay, English and Mandarin, has continuously been the government’s strategy in marketing the labour force to international capital. Malaysia has one of the highest % of STEM graduates in Southeast Asia, with about 40% according to some sources. Enrolment has reached 51%, with the government long-term goal being 60%. Coupled with this is record highs in cash handout spending to lower income households in 2025, funded through fuel subsidy rationalisation.

The government has continuously pursued a reduction of the fiscal deficit, as emphasized in the 13th Malaysia Plan (the 2026-2030 5-year plan). Personally, it seems like local conversations and media has finally shifted from scaremongering about the deficit the past couple years, recognising that the government’s exposure to foreign-denominated debt has always been low (<3%), with overall public sector external debt being ~10%.

The high-profile case involving Former Malaysian Prime Minister, Najib Razak, has reached it’s conclusion with a 15-year jail time and a RM11.38b ($2.8b) fine due to his role in the 1MDB corruption scandal. That said, some major actors remain free and other people involved were able to avoid harsh penalties, questioning the government’s ability and willingness to root out corruption.

The signing of the US-Malaysia ART, widely criticised for being unbalanced and unfavourable to Malaysia, was also signed. Among the provisions that were critiqued include those forcing Malaysia to conform to US rare earth supply chains, acceptance of US Halal certification standards, and a clause involving unilateral tariffs against US enemies.

Other various tidbits

Malaysia has overtaken Thailand since 2024 to become the most visited country in Southeast Asia, with preliminary assessments indicating more than 40 million visitors in 2025, with 2026 plan’s seeing the government’s target rise to 47 million. Foreign and domestic tourist spending has exceeded 2019 levels.

The Malaysian Ringgit has reached a nearly 5 year high against the dollar, trading at around 4.04-4.06. Trade has also risen to it’s highest level ever, with RM1.45t ($358b) in exports by November. This means a record consecutive export surplus of 67 months since May 2020, and leading to another yearly surplus since 1998.

Looking at various statistics on OpenDOSM, the government’s bid for a fully transparent platform of free, regularly updated and open data unifying sources from all government agencies, does imply some ‘progress’.

For example, FDI

Conclusion

All in all, 2025 was marked by competence by the national bourgeois dictatorship, further cementing Malaysia’s role and reliance on the global economy. Mixtures of neoliberal, and progressive policies further complicate Malaysia’s future trajectory. 2026 will be a pivotal year in assessing ASEAN’s role in the global economy, whether it can successfully build South-South cooperation and retain unity and resilience from ongoing geopolitical fragmentation. Ongoing adherence to neoliberal capitalism limits future imaginations, continues enabling the desecration of class politics into technocratic managerial politics of “good governance”. The political Left remains practically non-existent in this suffocating existence, with the necessary work continuously and slowly being built by those on the ground.

That’s all, and happy new years everyone.

I share similar fears, but what can China do that it hasn’t already done?

As much as the sabre-rattling of China’s incursions in the contested South China Sea is amplified, China does not have the precedence of military deployments as the USA has in their neighbouring regions.

I think local developments will have to shift before any sort of overt policy change comes into play. The militaries of Southeast Asian countries are generally more reactionary and anti-China than the populace, any sort of official movement of China’s military may lead to unnecessary antagonisms elsewhere.

Simple narratives of interference by China is already widespread. I think their focus on the economy and diplomacy has carried itself to good graces for most of Southeast Asia so far. It’s about bread and butter issues for the populace in the end- China has the economic weight that Russia does not.

South-east Asia’s broken east flank in Indochina: Myanmar’s problem

I don’t agree with everything the author says, his commentary is quite typical of ASEAN non-alignment, with some (mild) anti-China sentiments abound but not typically to the level of the West.

Choice quotes below.

The scale of China’s dependence on Myanmar reveals the depth of this transformation.

In 2023, Myanmar became China’s largest external supplier of heavy rare earth elements such as dysprosium and terbium—critical inputs for electric vehicles, advanced electronics, and modern weapons systems.

China imported roughly 41,700 metric tons that year, accounting for more than 90 percent of its heavy rare earth supply.

Yet these minerals do not come from areas controlled by the central government in Naypyidaw.

They are extracted almost entirely from territories governed by ethnic armed organisations in Kachin and northern Shan States.

…[China] does not secure its supply chains in Myanmar by choosing between the junta and the resistance, or by waiting for an elusive national peace. Instead, it works with whoever governs the ground that matters.

Central institutions in Beijing handle formal diplomacy, sovereign agreements, and military-to-military ties with Naypyidaw. At the same time, provincial security and intelligence agencies based in Yunnan manage relations with ethnic armed organisations along the border. These local agencies possess decades of experience, granular intelligence, and practical leverage that central ministries lack.

…Yet this strategy carries grave risks.

The more China relies on armed groups to secure its interests, the more it erodes the authority of the central state.

If Naypyidaw weakens beyond a critical threshold, Myanmar could slide into total state collapse. Such an outcome would not serve China’s interests.

…China is therefore engaged in a delicate balancing act: weakening the state enough to ensure compliance, but not so much that it disintegrates. It is betting that permanent fragmentation can be managed indefinitely.

For South-east Asia, this is a sobering lesson. Indochina’s eastern flank is no longer simply contested by great powers; it is being reorganised around corridors, commodities, and controlled disorder.

Traditional notions of sovereignty and non-interference are increasingly misaligned with realities on the ground.

…The real question is no longer who will rule Myanmar — but whether the region can prevent fragmentation from becoming the default model of order.

I’m not too knowledgeable either, but from what I have read and seen, you’re assessment wrt external powers seems about right, especially with neighbouring regions bordering China. There’s some rabble-rousing about Chinese and Western interference for certain factions in the war from some NGOs but I think generally you’re assessment that China prefers a unified state over splitting is accurate, and it’s probably safe to assume that China would prefer some level of peace, unification and stability for it’s bordering countries, unlike that of the Western imperialists.

I also know that Burma is the preferred name among communists over there, since the name-change to Myanmar was mostly carried out unilaterally by the junta.

Asean economies head into 2026 on a strong note

Graphs in the actual website.

Resilience and strength in regional exports

Evidence mounts that supply chain realignment is generating an increase in intra-regional trade and benefiting Asean exports. This momentum is particularly evident in regional economies plugged into the artificial intelligence (AI) and electronics supply chain.

For instance, Malaysia and Singapore both experienced a strong jump in exports, led by the electronics and semiconductor sector. Persistent global AI-related capital expenditure has created a clear “halo effect”, transmitting stronger demand across the entire electronics value chain as the AI replacement cycle intensifies.

Regional currencies defy expectations

Second is the strength in South-east Asian regional currencies. At the start of the year, there was widespread fear that intense US tariffs against China and Asean would cause export contraction across the region. This could lead to pronounced US dollar strength or, worse, a synchronised devaluation of the yuan and regional currencies.

The reality was markedly different. Given that Asean economies have a large export component, strong export performance bolstered regional currencies. This was magnified by the underlying global trend of de-dollarisation, which intensified across the year.

Benign inflation trajectory across the region

Investors were also worried that the higher trade tariffs would spike inflation globally. However, supply chains in various industries proved more flexible than expected, with many intermediaries helping to absorb the tariffs. This meant limited passthrough of higher prices to end-consumers.

Strong currencies across Asean also increased purchasing power, dampening imported inflation risks. Furthermore, the influx of competitively priced goods and services from China helped drive down manufacturing costs, keeping inflation in check. As a result, most inflation trajectories across Asean economies remained soft.

…While most regional currencies performed well, the dong and rupiah remained weak. Specifically, the weak rupiah was cited as a key factor for Bank Indonesia in its decision to refrain from further rate cuts. Meanwhile, the Prabowo government remains focused on its various stimulus measures to push Indonesia’s economic growth rate beyond the current 5 per cent handle.

On the inflation front, Thailand faces increasing deflationary risk with the headline consumer price index falling 0.76 per cent in October, intensifying the 0.72 per cent contraction in September. The trend is fuelled by supply side forces and soft underlying demand…

In another article,

Another obstacle is the middle-income trap: Thailand’s average income remains about US$7,500 per capita, far below the US$13,000 threshold for high-income status.

Furthermore, business and industrial models largely generate low value-added output. At current growth rates, Thailand may need 30–40 years to become a high-income nation and risks having its GDP overtaken by Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore, and the Philippines in the coming years.

Yes I agree. I wouldn’t necessarily classify it as Maoist since it has a much longer history, or at least would distinguish it between Maoism, as a historical/ideological movement, and the practices of Mao Zedong and the CPC more generally.

I think the key factor when it comes to “class collaborationism” is the need to distinguish between strategy and tactics and understand them as a dialectical process that will change depending on the specific circumstances.

I am not - but the website the article is based on does have a working relationship with Tricontinental and other left-wing groups across SEA.

Rainbow Agrarian Populism – On Phue Thai

The Phue Thai Party have always been a headache for the overly literate classes.For the governing elites of Thailand, they are a constant threat, a powerful force of both capital and mobilised dedicated supporters. For academics, they defy definition. Political scientists, time and again, fail to categorise them— being both a peasant-backed leftist populist movement and an alliance of big urban capitalists, they break too many rules. For economists, they cannot resolve the contradictions of a party that privatises some elements of state infrastructure while simultaneously investing massive sums of capital in building and owning other elements. They are somehow nationalist and judicially punitive yet wokeand socially progressive all at once. Phue Thai bring both green-cap-wearing communists and luxury-watch-wearing real estate moguls into the same coalition. By all the rules of 21st-century politics, they should not exist, they should not be possible, but somehow they have been capable of creating this oft-misunderstood paradigm shift.

As the mood of the global south increasingly shifts towards a new paradigm, with the development of BRICS, the re-alignment of trade away from US-centric markets and new calls for economic sovereignty, states like Burkina Faso, Mexico and China are experimenting with new models that break from the political science textbooks. In many ways, Phue Thai’s vision was ahead of its time, with its golden years running between 2001-2006, yet the party is still alive today, affording us an insight into another potential future, another paradigm.

Below is a very short excerpt on the long-form article, highlighting the introduction and the conclusion of the article.

Fragmenting The Ummah: How And Why The Malay Neocolony Disrupts Islamic Unity

Although race gets the focus of most analyses over here, important distinctions can also be made through class-based differences on religion and language. Below is the introduction. I also generally recommend the website VoxUmmah where the article was published, especially for those curious on the Islamicate and anti-imperialism.

A few months ago, during a conversation regarding global and local politics, my Maoist friend was surprised to hear me say that Hadi Awang, the current president of the controversial Malaysian Islamic Party (PAS), had expressed support for Iran’s struggle against Israel. His shock was due to the widespread chronic online assumption that the president was a Shia-hating Salafi. This, however, is far from reality. A quick internet search would reveal that Hadi Awang has many times, through speeches and written statements, affirmed that the Shia, although considered outside the creed of Ahlul Sunnah wal Jama’ah, are still within the fold of Islam. He even stated in a video once that Shias are welcome to join PAS as members, provided they understood that the usul of the party’s constitution remains as the Quran, followed by the Sunnah, ijma’, and qiyas, thereby reiterating that the party adopts Shafi’i jurisprudence, in line with the historically normative practice of the Malays.

Background on the Thailand-Cambodia War

This was written in the first bout of the war in July, but it’s heft corresponds to it’s insight, highlighting the political-economic history of the two respective countries which continuously remains relevant.

On the morning of July 25, war broke out between Cambodia and Thailand. On the surface, the conflict was sparked by a dispute over control of a UNESCO-listed heritage temple along the contested border. In reality, however, this war has little to do with the temple itself, nor is it truly a battle between two nations. Rather, it is the result of domestic political decisions on both sides, decisions that ultimately amount to a war on the poor, regardless of which side of the border they are from. In this conflict, peace is the only class based solution.

What’s in a monument?

I think what’s most interesting about the sculpture is that it stands out and looks very foreign - despite being the national monument. No other kind of sculpture exists in Malaysia, because it would be considered idolatrous to Islamic sensibilities for it’s human features. This has periodically caused mild uproar, but an important part of this story is that it was commissioned by Tunku Abdul Rahman, our first Prime Minister after seeing the Marine Corps War Memorial in Virginia in the midst of the Cold War. The following is taken from a blog post, highlighting the differences between the inscriptions of the monument and cenotaph between languages.

Victory in two languages

The dedication at the base of Tugu Negara is bilingual. The Malay version is written in the native Jawi script, which was the default in Malaysia before colonisation.

Translations are rarely exact, since some meanings can’t make it across language worldviews. But in this case, the two versions are more or less faithful. The only shift in nuance is the focus on ‘heroic’ in English, whereas the Malay version merely mentions the warriors as fighting or struggling. I can’t really fault the translation though, since struggling in itself is worthy in our worldview, whether ‘heroic’ or not. And the Malay version demands more from the heroes. It requires that the struggle not merely be ‘in the cause of’, but to actually uphold peace and freedom.

The sentiment on the cenotaph dedication has a similar difference. The Malay version is about the memory of the service of the fallen. The primary emotion is gratitude and grief, not glory.

But I also noticed a different bilingual plaque. The versions were also generally faithful, but there was a single interesting deviation. In the English version, the figures of Tugu Negara represent the ‘triumph of the forces of democracy’ over the ‘forces of evil’. But the Malay version is nowhere so ideological. Instead, it merely says that the bronze figures represent the victory of our troops against our enemies.

And I can’t fault this translation either. Literally translating the ‘triumph of forces of democracy over forces of evil’ would sound utterly ridiculous and cringe, to the pragmatic and semi-feudal Malay worldview. No. For us, the victory of value is the one that defends our sovereignty, whatever ideology we may choose to hold over time, against those who seek to undermine that sovereignty – whatever ideology they may choose to hold at the time.

The differences in meaning showcases the dialectical process of decolonization and the material and historical bases of cultural difference. This nuance will not be captured by tourists or visitors passing by, but showcases the reality of the negotiations that occur between the colonial past and the post-colonial present in plain view - only if you are willing to understand.

There has been sufficient discourse in highlighting how Tunku Abdul Rahman was westernised, and for someone like Sukarno, Malaysia itself was a comprador creation meant to solidify British control in Southeast Asia. That is why Konfrontasi (Indonesia-Malaysia war) happened soon after the federation’s declaration. I think the key part to this story is how no one could really imagine how reality would turn out. This reminds me of Chin Peng’s (the last secretary general of the MCP) salient critique and failures of the Party in his interview in 2003, from not adapting Maoist guerrila warfare strategy to the Malayan context, the inadequate and immature analysis of religion and particularly Islam, and the failure to recognize the fractures and differences between the reactionary and comprador classes (ie. the British big bourgeoisie, vs the Chinese capitalists or Malay aristocrats/petty bourgeois or in other words foreign vs local Capital, for example). The National Monument echoes perhaps all aspects of this critique through it’s inscriptions and history, despite the face-value anti-communist readings.

Historical divisions and the Japanese occupation in Malaya

Japanese PM denounced in Malaysia for visiting cemetery to commemorate WWII Japanese soldiers and ignoring war atrocity

Takaichi, after visiting, wrote in Japanese on social media platform X that she was able to “commemorate our ancestors who lost their lives in Malaysia,” and felt “deeply moved” by the experience.

In the post and from her remarks, Takaichi neglected the acts of aggression and atrocities committed by the Japanese military during World War II in Malaysia, and it led to strong condemnation from Malaysia, despite that Japan’s Foreign Ministry claimed that Takaichi’s visit to the Japanese Cemetery in Kuala Lumpur was not a specific tribute to soldiers of the former Imperial Japanese Army.

The main tweet of the Japanese PM being here, in which she also visited the Tugu Negara, the ‘national monument’ that was primarily dedicated to defeating the Axis powers during WW2, for which in Malaysia, would primarily have been Japan. As a result there was a bit of an (online) outcry of sorts for the apparent contradiction and insincerity about Japanese crimes across East and Southeast Asia.

This is relatively old news by now, but I think gives an excuse to dig a little deeper and consider the implications of the Japanese occupation and the national monument for understanding modern-day Malaysian historical consciousness. As we all know, online media is not entirely representative of reactions and perceptions of reality, let alone can represent a material force on its own. This is especially true for Japanese occupation and historical grievances that were inconsistently felt across Malaya.

Over here, where the Rafflesia genus is native, there has been opposition to it’s colonizer’s name (based on Stamford Raffles), and instead to use a native equivalent.

Another interpretation of says that a parasitic flower that smells of rotting corpse is especially fitting for a colonizer.

Globalization, Trump’s tariff war and APEC 2025

This speech itself is worth reading in its entirety. Here’s some of it below.

However, it is likely that the ordinary people of SE Asia and elsewhere, are going to be affected by these tariffs. There is a high likelihood that these tariffs will spark a global economic recession. US goods imports amounted to USD 3.3 trillion or about 11% of the US GDP in 2024. With Trumps tariffs levied on friend and foe alike, prices of goods in the US are going to go up an average of 10 to 15%.2 Unless there is a concomitant increase in the income of US citizens, the effective aggregate demand in the US is going to shrink significantly. This means that the demand for goods and services from both US firms and the firms exporting to the US is going to decrease by at least 10 – 15%. Given the size of the US economy, this decrease in aggregate demand is likely to set off a deep recession – perhaps in about 18 months for now.

The Malaysian government does not seem to take this possibility too seriously at present. They are forecasting a growth rate of 4.0 to 4.5% for the Malaysian economy for 2026. Progressive movements in all continents should be prepared to mount campaigns to ensure that our governments handle this recession on the basis of solidarity if it actually develops. No one must be deprived of basic needs whether it be food, shelter, medical care or education. Society must marshal its resources to ensure that no member of society is left behind.

This speech showcases the gradual culmination of national consciousness inculcated by the bourgeoisie, following the Malaysian Islamic scholar Al-Attas’s call for the “Islamization of Knowledge”. Anwar represents the cosmopolitan, progressive Muslim intellectual trying to carve their own place in a post 9/11 world capitalist system. Certainly, it echoes historical third-worldism and non-alignment, and represents the ongoing contradictions of a deeply unequal, racialised capitalist economic system.

Anwar: Malaysians must break free from backward and colonial mindsets

PUTRAJAYA: Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim has called for Malaysians to be freed from backward and colonial mindsets, highlighting the prevalence of hate speech that demeans others based on skin colour and religion.

He stressed the urgent need to reform the education system to cultivate a generation of progressive, courageous thinkers grounded in their own values.

He said that despite nearly seven decades of independence, some Malaysians still regarded foreign ideas as absolute solutions rather than developing a confident, home-grown intellectual framework.