A reminder that as the US continues to threaten countries around the world, fedposting is to be very much avoided (even with qualifiers like “in Minecraft”) and comments containing it will be removed.

Image is of the USS Abraham Lincoln arriving at Thailand, looking worn after a very long deployment to the Arabian Sea.


My weekly preamble is in spoiler tags below.

preamble

To start briefly with Iran, there’s been two significant developments over the last week. First is that Iran is now beginning to put into practice its policy that allows preemptive strikes - a policy which was authorized by the previous Khamenei a while before his death but has so far gone unused - to strike at Kuwait, Qatar, and Jordan without a corresponding American aggression immediately beforehand. The second development is that Iran is now taking a firmer stand against the US Navy in the waters of the Arabian Sea, beginning by testing anti-ship ballistic missiles against the US fleet - so far without confirmed hits as of me writing this sentence - as it is obviously disadvantageous for Iran to simply not do anything against the blockade even with US logistics under strain. The US has attempted to dissuade these new strikes by striking Iranian oil tankers, to which Iran has responded by striking oil tankers aligned with the West. This is very much not a shooting war that the US wants to get into as oil stockpiles continue to decline and diesel prices are at all-time highs (though if adjusted for inflation, we still have a little more time before we hit absolute highs). The overall picture is of an Iran growing in confidence.

There’s also been some encouraging news out of Yemen, where Ansarallah has been conducting a ground offensive weaken the enemy occupation of the western coast, including some breathtakingly precise drone-drop operations combined with using recon drones to guide ballistic missiles at enemy formations. As far as I’m aware, the blockade of the Bab el-Mandeb to Saudi tankers has been very successful, although stopping Saudi tankers from heading north towards Suez has been understandably trickier. I suppose if push comes to shove, they can continue to strike the very immobile coastal oil facilities rather than trying to hit moving ships at a great distance.

The news out of Russia/Ukraine has been quite miserable for particularly Ukrainian civilians over the past month or two, with Ukrainian strikes on Russian civilian logistics and warehouses being met with much greater Russian responses on Ukrainian civilian logistics and warehouses. Ukrainian ports are now effectively blockaded, making exporting agricultural products in the same quantities as before essentially impossible, and within the cities including Kiev, food suppliers are scrambling to find smaller warehouses to place goods in so that they aren’t as easily destroyed like the larger warehouses have been. I find it sincerely upsetting that the war has progressed to this point, though it’s always worth noting that, first, Ukraine had a few opportunities to sign pretty good negotiating terms with Russia; and second, in comparison, Western wars begin at the step of making a conflict about hurting civilians, even to the extent of it being a detriment to strategic goals by not solely hitting military targets (most famously in Gaza, but also e.g. during Obama’s term by bombing weddings and hospitals).

I will confess to not being as up-to-date on the situation in Europe, and especially Germany, in regards to the Ukraine War as I would like, but as a general statement, nothing I’ve seen over the last few years has demonstrated to me that Europe is capable of fielding a conventional force which would provide a formidable, let alone existential, threat to Russia at this stage. There’s been lots of embarrassing stories about European missile, drone, and shell production being well below standards in both quality and quantity. My thoughts are now that I think the age of the US/NATO posing an existential conventional threat to China, Russia, and probably Iran (and perhaps others like the DPRK?) is now conclusively over, with Western bases proven to be indefensible with existing missile defence programs, their logistics very vulnerable to disruption, and their aircraft not being safe to use over airspace at least as well-protected as Iran’s. The US can still do cataclysmic, nation-destroying damage to smaller, less defended countries like those in Latin America and Africa, but for the anti-US squad in Eurasia, the vast majority of the threat from the US is now a combination of financial/debt offensives and covert intelligence. We still have a long way to go on both those fronts, however - a minimum of a decade or two, I believe, even with Trump’s inadvertently anti-imperialist accelerationism.

Lastly for this preamble, the annual SCO summit took place on September 1st in Bishkek, with the leaders of China, Russia, Iran, India, Türkiye, Pakistan, and others in attendance. A lot of the usual statements were made: down with hegemonies, down with militarising space, down with unilateral sanctions, up with local currency exchanges, up with cooperation, up with peace, etc etc. The big proclamation this time around was the Bishkek Declaration, which reiterated all those points I just mentioned. Overall, it’s one of those documents where the content is mostly cool and indirectly jabs a lot at the US, but I find that paper is a generally ineffective barrier of protection against bombs and missiles, which is a pretty major avenue of… let’s say, “international communication” in the current day. And I would like to see some real contenders to the World Bank and IMF taking shape soon if we’re gonna truly start fighting hegemonism, but I digress.


Last week’s thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine

If you have evidence of Zionist crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on the Zionists’ destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


  • Redcuban1959 [any]@hexbear.netM
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    The Silicon Valley funded international far right has spent the last 7 years working to destroy Brazil’s only branch of government capable of regulating crypto, AI, and social media - the judiciary. This is what the anti-Supreme Court rally looked like in S. Paulo yesterday.

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      Theres another coup happening in Brazil right now by the way. Far-Right justices inside the Supreme Court are removing cops who were investigating Flavio Bolsonaro, and they are trying to sabotage Lula’s election.

        • Redcuban1959 [any]@hexbear.netM
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          One of the two justices appointed by Bolsonaro, Andre Mendonça, is now the president of the Electoral Justice, he decided by himself to accuse Justice De Moraes, the Chief of the Federal Police (that was investigating him) and the Attorney General of corruption and abuse of power for investigating both Flavio Bolsonaro and Andre Mendonça’s link with corrupted banker Vocaro. He also accused the son of Lula, saying that he was corrupt, then he blocked any attempt to properly investigate it, saying that the Federal Police should wait until after the election to investigate it (yes, he’s accusing a guy, and then blocking any invesgation so the media can have a narrative against Lula). It was also leaked that Mendonça was payed by Vocaro, with Vocaro sending money to a organization Mendonça owned. De Moraes got pissed with this and accused Mendonça of crimes agaisnt democracy, today Mendonça got with his buddies in the supreme court and voted to remove the chief of the federal police and blocked any attempted by other justices to reverse that. He also has no support within the court besides three other justices, so he leaks stuff to media to astroturf support against Lula.

          To my surprise Lula have been ahead in this election from the very start at least by 5%, now the media is saying Lula and Flavio are tied in the runoff. Though theres still a long way to go until the election and theres a chance Lula can reverse all of this if he plays his cards well. The only real problem is Trump’s reaction to an eventual Lula victory.

  • RobnHood [she/her]@hexbear.net
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    2 MQ-1 Predator drones have been intercepted in the Straight of Hormuz. The MQ-1 is the predecessor of the newer MQ-9 Reaper and were actually taken out of active service in 2018. These aren’t the first MQ-1 shootdowns of this war, but it does show how complete the ‘Reaper Genocide’ is now that they have to put obsolete drones back into service. MALE drones have basically become expensive one-way attack drones.

    • companero [he/him]@hexbear.net
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      MQ-1 variants are still operated by the US Navy, who just had their new Dive-LD naval drone get captured by Iran. MES speculates that they are trying to destroy it to prevent it from being reverse engineered.

      • Rojo27 [he/him]@hexbear.net
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        You would think they’d have some sort of remote kill switch. Or maybe that’s more difficult to implement than I’m thinking it would be. Its just surprising they wouldnt plan for this and have something on device to do the job.

        Oh well. Patiently waiting for the IRGC to post pics of their haulpicard-excited

        • aanes_appreciator [he/him, comrade/them]@hexbear.net
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          The argument against it is that almost any feature to safely operate a drone is exploited by adversaries.

          Slop source aside this is a good selection of case studies on unconventional drone warfare. Even mentions when the IRGC captured another American drone by using GPS jamming to trick it into landing in Iran rather than returning to its home base.

        • WalrusDragonOnABike [they/them]@reddthat.com
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          Presumably they are preventing it from communicating with the outside, so unless it was a “I explode if I haven’t received the don’t explode signal within the last 24 hours” type thing, it wouldn’t work. And not sure how often that would interfere with its missions given 6km of water or land above it in conflict areas with jamming could lead to extended outages during intended use.

  • Sasuke [comrade/them]@hexbear.net
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    Reporting in from the Totalitarian Kingdom of Norway 🇳🇴🔥

    Tomorrow we’re doing a mandatory mourning session for King Harald. At the high school I work at, we’re sitting our students down to watch a two hour funeral service. Attendance is mandatory. No one is allowed to leave the classrooms. We’ve even been directed to tell our students to go use the bathroom before the broadcast starts, so that we can keep it Proper and Respectful.

  • miz [any, any]@hexbear.net
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    War On Iran: Crude Price Nears $100 Barrel While Trump Still Hopes To Win | Moon of Alabama (✅ checked for brainworms)

    this post makes a major factual error:

    Despite the U.S./Israeli war on Iran, oil had so far not breached the psychological mark of $100 barrel.

    crude was over $100 from March 30 to April 08, hitting a high of 112.95 during that time. crude was also over $100 from April 29 to May 05 and from May 12 to May 19.

    (all dates 2026)

  • Athena5898 [any]@hexbear.net
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    (MPN) Singer Pink Shared A Post Denying The Gaza Genocide On Instagram

    Pro-Israel groups, like the one she shared a post from are seeking to cancel Macklemore & Ed Sheeran, demanding apologies and financial compensation because Macklemore performed his song Hind’s Hall as part of his opening act in a tour he is doing with Ed Sheeran.

    Pink has since received enormous public backlash & a boycott campaign after sharing a post that explicitly denies the Gaza Genocide. (https://t.me/mintpress_news/15478)

  • plinky [he/him]@hexbear.net
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    Es hora de que el Estado de Israel reconozca públicamente que las Islas Malvinas son territorio argentino ocupado, que los británicos le roban violentamente al pueblo argentino. Los británicos no solo se conforman con ocupar el territorio, sino que también realizan allí perforaciones petroleras y le roban el dinero al pueblo argentino.

    the source (sic): https://xcancel.com/itamarbengvir/status/2097066139041845310

    funny things can happen with latest usa and entity tweets combined, not as funny as greenland arm twisting, but still

    *(what makes it more funny, that oil exploration in the falklands was subcontracted to entity firm navitas)

    **which milei is suing against recently, because argentinian currency broke 1500 to usd level and likely money broke

  • Budwig_v_1337hoven [he/him]@hexbear.net
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    US military troops can still be hit by targeted attacks despite disabling ad tracking on their devices — and leaders aren’t happy

    In May 2026, Senator Ron Wyden mailed the DoD (among others), informing the agency that foreign powers were using commercial location data to target US troops - and now, Wyden has shared the responses he received from the US Army, Air Force, Navy, Marine Corps, and Special Operations Command, all of which have disabled advertising tracking across their government-issued devices, including Apple and Android smartphones, and Windows computers.

    “We commend these service branches for implementing this cybersecurity defensive best practice on government devices,” Wyden and Senator Pat Harrigan wrote. “However, recent reports regarding the continued availability of commercial location data originating from DoD facilities raise troubling questions.”

  • Tervell [he/him]@hexbear.net
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    https://archive.ph/7909B

    F-35 costs jump in latest production lots

    Compared to recent contracts, the average flyaway cost of an F-35A and F-35B rose by over 11 percent, while the price of an F-35C climbed over 8 percent, according to figures supplied by the F-35 Joint Program Office.

    more

    The cost of all three variants of the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter are increasing by as much as roughly 11 percent, according to the Pentagon. A spokesperson for the F-35 Joint Program Office (JPO) confirmed to Breaking Defense that the average flyaway cost — a metric that measures when a jet has all the equipment it needs for delivery — of the conventional takeoff and landing F-35A rose to $92 million in the aircraft’s 18th and 19th production lots, which will deliver over the next two years. That’s up from the $82.5 million price tag of the jet’s most recent group of production contracts spanning 2023 to 2026, a growth of 11.5 percent. Similarly, the price of a jump jet F-35B rose to $121.4 million across lots 18 and 19, while the carrier-capable F-35C climbed to $110.8 million. For the F-35B, that’s an increase of 11.4 percent compared to a previous price tag of $109 million; the F-35C had the smallest increase of 8.5 percent set against a prior cost of $102.1 million. Air & Space Forces Magazine was first to report the new figures.

    In response to a Pentagon document known as a modernized selected acquisition report (MSAR), which revealed rising buying costs for the stealth fighter, F-35 manufacturer Lockheed Martin previously said the report “shows the combat-proven F-35 program moving into full-rate production, resuming high-volume development deliveries and growing globally.” The company added that the report “also shows that the hard work has shifted from proving the basic aircraft to executing major modernization, improving fleet readiness and controlling long-term sustainment and integration costs.” Lockheed referred back to that statement today when asked to comment on the increased flyaway costs. The F-35 program has been battered by inflation, rising prices of raw materials and supply chain issues, which drove up costs for lot 18, the Pentagon previously told Breaking Defense. Rising rates even sparked a cost dispute with Switzerland, culminating in Bern trimming its buy of the stealth fighter. The flyaway cost includes government-furnished equipment outside the scope of Lockheed’s contract, such as the jet’s F135 engine built by RTX subsidiary Pratt & Whitney. The aircraft’s upgraded radar is supplied by Northrop Grumman, though delays have forced the Pentagon to accept new aircraft without the nose-mounted sensor, Breaking Defense previously reported. It’s not clear exactly how much those features may have influenced the overall price increase.

    Projected F-35 buying costs are going up by over $50 billion across the program’s lifespan due to factors like upgrades, shifting buy profiles and a surge in spare parts to boost lackluster readiness rates. Those costs, detailed in the MSAR document, also showed the F-35’s total lifecycle costs — the sum total the government expects to spend to buy and sustain the fighter — dipping beneath $2 trillion after surpassing that number in 2024. One set of upgrades underway for the fighter is meant to enhance its engine, while a separate is intended to deliver a new power and thermal management system to address cooling challenges. Another modernization program known as Block 4 — which is over budget and years behind schedule — will add a suite of capabilities for the fighter, officials say. Block 4’s computing backbone, known as Technology Refresh 3, has still not been certified for combat, relegating jets delivered over the past two years to training. A total of 20 customers globally, including the US, are on contract for the F-35. International customers can have differing requirements, which may come with varying costs. Foreign buyers also largely acquire the A variant, though some are procuring the F-35B; only the US flies the F-35C. The Pentagon is planning to acquire 148 aircraft each in lots 18 and 19, for a total of 296 aircraft. Lockheed said in September 2025, when the contract was finalized, that the increase in price per jet was below the rate of inflation, while the JPO has said that the cost of the fighter’s airframe is “consistent” compared to prior years when adjusting for inflation.

  • Tervell [he/him]@hexbear.net
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    https://archive.ph/C0ECq

    What options does the Pentagon have to cover its mounting FY26 operational costs?

    “If I were still in the building, I would say, ‘I’m probably screwed now,'" a former official told Breaking Defense.

    joever

    more

    With Congress headed on break, a continuing resolution in place through Dec. 11 and no hope for a near-term defense supplemental, Defense Department planners are scrambling to stretch available funds and make it through the end of the fiscal year.

    really cool that the world’s allegedly most powerful military is getting put on “desperately waiting on my salary to come in” end-of-month rations. hope you enjoy instant ramen! (although tbh, that’d probably still be better than the “food” they were serving to those sailors…)

    The issue took center stage this week, thanks to a Thursday statement from Rep. Rosa DeLauro, the top Democrat on the House Appropriations Committee, where she said the Pentagon is making a “secretive attempt to siphon” billions of dollars away from the National Institutes of Health through an “interagency agreement.” “These funds were provided for lifesaving medical research, not as extra money for the Department of Defense,” she added. “It is no secret that the Department of Defense is facing enormous financial pressure because of President Trump’s war of choice with Iran. But the Trump administration cannot make American patients, families, and scientists pay the price.”

    uh, yeah, pretty sure they can since you’re not going to actually fucking do anything to stop them? biden-the-thing

    In a statement to NOTUS, NIH said the proposed agreement was around a collaboration on medical technologies, and notably, neither NIH or DeLauro said a deal was ever consummated. Appropriations Committee chairman Tom Cole, R-Okla., said in a statement late Friday that “not one dollar has been transferred from the NIH to the Department of War.” DeLauro’s office did not respond to a request for additional details, and neither did DoD and the Office of Management and Budget. DoD also did not respond to multiple requests for comment about ongoing FY26 budget pressures. Regardless of the specifics around the NIH claims, the fact the Pentagon’s budget is under stress is no secret, thanks to a mix of six months of military operations against Iran, National Guard deployments inside the US, increased fuel costs, end-strength overages and the lack of full reimbursement from the Department of Homeland Security for DoD border operations. The White House in June sent lawmakers a supplemental spending request that included $67.1 billion in defense funds, though Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth later said that he expects “certain aspects” of the Iran war to cost $37.5 billion through the end of September. However, with Congress effectively shuttered until after November’s elections, that supplemental isn’t coming anytime soon, if it ever gets done.

    Finding outside sources of money and putting them towards the Pentagon is just one of a handful of options available to defense budget planners, a pair of former defense officials told Breaking Defense. But none of them, they said, are pretty. “Their problem right now is the operating costs that they didn’t plan for,

    YOUR WHOLE JOB IS TO FIGHT IMPERIAL WARS HOW DID YOU NOT FUCKING PLAN FOR FIGHTING AN IMPERIAL WAR!?

    and that has to be solved by 26 days from now,” a former senior defense official granted anonymity to speak freely, told Breaking Defense this week. “If I were still in the building, I would say, ‘I’m probably screwed now.’”

    Viable Options And Roadblocks

    Both the former senior official and Elaine McCusker, an acting comptroller during the first Trump administration, spoke to Breaking Defense before DeLauro’s statement came out. However, they broadly laid out some of the available options to get operations and maintenance (O&M) funds lined up. One option is via DoD requests to reprogram money between coffers. Broadly speaking, Pentagon officials have more legal wiggle room to reshuffle O&M as they see fit — cancelling training exercises, for example, is fully within the department’s decision space. In July, US Pacific Air Forces Commander Gen. Kevin Schneider warned that the military would do just that and was reevaluating its upcoming exercise schedule to help preserve “readiness” in the face of increased commitments around the globe, including the Middle East. Such moves are likely more wide-spread, especially for the Navy given its operational tempo in the Middle East. “[You] can’t really let the services go ahead, go full speed ahead, on training and stuff, on the 45 percent chance that more money will show up because we’ll be broke in the operating accounts if we don’t slow down,” the former defense official added.

    Another option is to seek Congressional approval to move dollars between accounts. In early July, for example, the Pentagon asked Congress for permission to reroute roughly $4.3 billion from FY26 coffers in order to pay for “higher priority items,” including increased personnel and operational costs around the globe. Lawmakers on the appropriations committees did not respond to questions about the status of this reprogramming request, but $4.3 billion is just a fraction of Hegseth’s $37.5 billion Iran estimate and the $67.1 billion requested for defense in the supplemental ask. “Reprogramming requests submitted to Congress, if approved, would help with some immediate cash flow challenges, particularly in the military personnel account, but the sources to fund these reprogramming actions are not good and will need replenished as well,” McCusker explained.

    you’ve heard of debasification, now get ready for robbing-peter-to-pay-paul-ification kelly

    “The Pentagon is close to the cap on general transfer authority (GTA),” she added. “If it does not get supplemental relief, it will have to defer maintenance

    oh well good thing the military doesn’t have longstanding and evergrowing problems with maintenance then!

    and potentially stall acceleration of modernization and procurement. Some bills could carry into next year.” But given the Pentagon is in the middle of a major modernization push, and how officials always like to note that delayed modernization usually costs more down the road, cutting technology buys to fund O&M isn’t ideal. Another option on the table to cut costs by furloughing civilian workers or cutting back their hours. “You could tell civilians to only work three days a week, but the question is how much you can do this late in the year that would really move the needle,” the former senior defense official added. “You could also slow purchases of things that you normally buy with O&M funds and hope for relief later.” Then there are more creative “maneuvers,” like using funds from the $152 billion reconciliation pot to pay the bills, the former senior defense official said. While that money has been earmarked, the Pentagon could shift funding around, similar to how the department diverted $3.8 billion to pay for the wall along the southern border in 2020. Notably, the Pentagon has to get its reconciliation funding on contract this year or lose roughly 8.3 percent of its funds. In theory, that means the department could do some acrobatics and shift money from procurement to O&M, then shift reconciliation to cover those holes in procurement — but eventually, something gets cut. While some of DoD’s funding pressure could abate on Oct. 1 when FY27 starts, it still has funds to backfill and will likely be under a continuing resolution until early December. “The financial challenges will only get worse until a final appropriations bill and supplemental are passed,” McCusker said. “Always wasteful and disruptive, a CR will be particularly destructive this year as only the 2026 base budget will extend. This means an immediate budget reduction of more than $150 billion or about $400 million per day compared to what was requested and planned for 2027.”

    • someone [comrade/them, they/them]@hexbear.net
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      YOUR WHOLE JOB IS TO FIGHT IMPERIAL WARS HOW DID YOU NOT FUCKING PLAN FOR FIGHTING AN IMPERIAL WAR!?

      I would love to be a fly on the wall of the last surviving PNAC ghouls’ conversations on current events. It would be so satisfying to watch their impotent rage as all they dreamed of comes crashing down because their successors actually bought into the propaganda they designed.

      • oliveoil [none/use name]@hexbear.net
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        Even with the smallest amount of critical thinking, and even lacking material analysis, they could’ve easily come to the conclusion that this war would be lost.

        It cost them what in Iraq? IIRC - $1 Trillion directly, and $10 Trillion in economic reduction.

        Iran is x4 the size, with terrain more treacherous than Afghanistan, and a way more powerful military. If we are conservative with the figures and say that Iran is x10 harder than Iraq, then we are looking at:

        $10 Trillion in direct costs, and $100 Trillion in economic reduction. The US obviously can’t afford that.

        This is what I’ve been telling noncommunists for over a decade. The US cannot afford such a war. When I spoke of the war hypothetically, I said that the US will sooner run out of money than win such a war.

  • Tervell [he/him]@hexbear.net
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    https://archive.ph/zGyRl

    Some Navy subs are waiting years for shipyard work, and that’s costing billions of dollars

    In the past decade, U.S. attack submarines have spent 41 ship-years idle, GAO found.

    more

    Maintenance delays have cost the Navy’s attack submarine fleet more than 41 years they could have been in operation—and those waiting to be taken out of service could cost more than $3 billion over the next five years, according to a recent watchdog report. The main problem is that shipyards are simply overloaded with work, the Government Accountability Office wrote in an Aug. 27 report.

    well, good thing the US government didn’t take any actions that would send even more ships into a maintenance tailspin!

    “The USS Pasadena entered inactive idle status on January 1, 2025 and is not expected to be inducted" into Puget Sound Naval Shipyard "for decommissioning until November 15, 2028 (1,414 days)—due to shipyard capacity constraints,” the report said.

    stuff like this is probably going to happen to basically all the ships involved in the war against Iran btw stonks-down

    “During this time, the attack submarine is unable to be operational since its dive certification is expired, but is still fully crewed with sailors.” In the meantime, the Navy is using the inactive submarine to train crews but its nearly-four-year delay is costing the services about $300 million in operating and support costs, according to the GAO’s analysis. More than a dozen subs are currently at risk of heading down the same, costly path. “Without mitigation, 15 attack submarines will enter inactive idle time from fiscal year 2026 through fiscal year 2030—during which time the Navy could incur more than 14,000 days of inactive idle time and $3.1 billion in costs to operate and support these inactive submarines,” the GAO found. “The U.S. Navy has not fully evaluated alternative options to more efficiently decommission attack submarines and develop and implement an inactivation plan that could allow them to reduce inactive idle time for crews and save billions.”

    well, bit difficult to retire old subs in a timely manner when you’re not producing new ones fast enough to replace them

    The report comes just months after the Navy decided to decommission USS Boise, a Los Angeles-class attack submarine, despite spending $1.6 billion on repairs. Last year, Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Daryl Caudle told lawmakers it was “unacceptable”. Over the past decade, the Navy spent about $3.3 billion on idle Los Angeles-class boats, and about $835 million on idle Virginia-class boats—roughly $230,000 for every day a sub sits pierside waiting to be worked on, the report said. The GAO submitted two recommendations: for the Navy to find “alternative options for decommissioning attack submarines,” including defueling outside of drydocks and reducing crewing for those waiting to be taken out of service; and create and execute a detailed plan that reduces inactive idle time. The agency also sent two other recommendations, which DOD deemed sensitive. “The Navy, on behalf of DOD, verbally concurred with the recommendations in this report, but did not provide written comments,” the report said.

  • Tervell [he/him]@hexbear.net
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    9 hours ago

    https://archive.ph/zZhVH

    The US may lack the engineers to rebuild space assets in a future war: RAND

    Industry is already short of skilled engineering personnel.

    more

    The defense industry would likely struggle to rebuild the U.S. military’s crucial space capabilities during a war with China or Russia because it will have too few skilled engineers to do the work, according to a new report from RAND. Today, the country’s space-focused defense companies employ roughly 3 percent of its engineers, and competition for skilled personnel means many jobs go unfilled. If an adversary destroys space-based intelligence, targeting, and communications assets, that shortfall would likely keep the military from getting them back online quickly. “Modern warfare relies on space-based capabilities; therefore, a key question is how quickly then United States can replace those capabilities during a conflict,” the report said. “Although much attention has focused on making these systems more resilient, far less has examined how fast they can be rebuilt after an attack, especially within 12 to 24 months. China and Russia have shown they can threaten or destroy U.S. space assets, potentially weakening U.S. and allied military operations across many domains. In a prolonged conflict, the ability to restore these capabilities on a short timeline could be critical.”

    Various commissions have long warned that U.S. dependence on space could become a vulnerability. In recent years, concerns have arisen over Russian and Chinese nuclear anti-satellite weapons. Rebuilding devastated constellations could require more engineers than the country has available, RAND wrote. While recent Space Force and White House initiatives aim to turn the tide, it doesn’t match the demand the administration is putting on the military space industry and, ultimately, more creative solutions are needed to grow that workforce, the report said. “Being able to reconstitute after a conflict is absolutely essential, and that’s not just business as usual for people who are working in the space industry. That’s a massive surge in production,” Alexandra Gerber, the report’s lead author, said in an interview. “Think like World War II, Rosie the Riveter, everybody’s on the line, and this is not just you can teach somebody how to work in a factory after one day. The timelines for creating people to work in the space industry are much much longer than that.

    So, we need to be thinking about what the space workforce might need to look like to support reconstitution during a conflict, 10, 20, 30 years in advance. Not just six months.”

    hmm, a plan, for several years in advance… like some kind of… N-year plan? hmm, where have I heard that before…

    Software development, data analytics, and artificial intelligence will be compete for future engineers, the report said. It can take at least 15 years to develop some of the more highly-skilled, space-focused experts. RAND researchers found “there are approximately 30,000 job openings per year for technicians and technologists, but only 11,000 individuals are credentialed annually. The space industrial base annual demand is approximately 5,000 of the annual openings (17 percent).” For the 244,000 assembly-related job fields hired for annually, there are only 13,000 people credentialed. “The space industrial base constitutes about 11,000 (5 percent) of the annual openings for assemblers, and competition for the 13,000 credentialed workers will be fierce,” the report said. Other major hurdles to growing the talent include security-clearance delays for six months or more, and a limited pool of qualified experts — foreign nationals hold 70 percent of electrical and computer engineering doctorates, making them unavailable from most national security-related work, the report said. Gerbet told Defense One the workforce isn’t needed just for a possible wartime surge. Last month, the White House released a new space transportation policy which aims to reach “more than 1,000 launches and reentries” by 2030. Building new launch infrastructure to meet that demand requires more skilled workers. “We’re currently at about 200 launches per year in the U.S. And they’re talking about timesing that by five, but who are the workers who are going to build all of this infrastructure to support that?,” Gerber said. “Then what happens if there is a conflict on top of that. Then you’re talking about a double surge.”

    Last week, President Donald Trump announced plans to create a U.S. Space Academy to “educate and train an entire generation of skilled service members, engineers, and civil operators.” “Think about what the volume throughput of the space academy is likely to be. I mean, you’re only talking about what, a couple hundred graduates a year,” Gerber said. “This is not sufficient, right? I mean, that’s not really happening at a scale that would impact what we’re talking about.” RAND researchers recommended that the Space Force and Pentagon focus new policy on growing workforce development by funding additional internships and vocational, bachelor’s, and advanced degree levels scholarships for science, technology, engineering, and math students, investing in fellowships, and promoting space engineering careers. Researchers said the Space Force should also “allow Reserve Officers’ Training Corps graduates and specialized program scholars to fulfill service obligations by working in qualifying” space defense firms. Additionally, researchers said the defense industry should also look to automation as a supplement to those workforce challenges. “Notably absent from these discussions were mentions of process automation, robotics, or artificial intelligence (AI)–enabled productivity tools as means to reduce the inherent labor intensity of space manufacturing, assembly, integration, and testing,” the report said. “Stakeholders appear to be addressing a structural productivity challenge primarily through volume-based hiring and training strategies and giving little weight to automation as a complementary surge enabler.”

    • orlando [they/them]@hexbear.net
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      6 hours ago

      what are the prospects of this?

      process automation, robotics, or artificial intelligence (AI)–enabled productivity tools as means to reduce the inherent labor intensity

      • NewOldGuard@lemmy.ml
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        1 hour ago

        ChatGPT designed satellite comes hurtling down because it hallucinated how math works

        “Oops — you specifically requested I design a stable satellite for low earth orbit using correct physics formulas. I did the opposite, and I’m sorry. It’s not just wrong of me — it’s a failure of epic proportions. Would you like me to draft a follow up federal grant request?”

    • CyborgMarx [any, any]@hexbear.net
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      7 hours ago

      Turns out you can’t rely on the market to magically pop out engineers and state initiative and funding are crucial in skills formation and transfers