Record breaking June temperatures have been deadly in Europe as the mercury soared past 40 degrees in several locations. The heat was hard to handle in Paris, London and Berlin, but our expert says we need to get used to it. But, how fast can we adapt to a scorching new-normal?
If only it was just heat…
200mm of rain fell in about an hour last night, as measured from the weather sensor on my balcony in Bucharest. Maybe more, I can’t tell because the ppwer went out when the water flooding down the block stairs tripped the breakers (I’m currently abroad, now waiting until morning there for a friend to go round and assess the damage…)
☀ not mine
The coronavirus pandemic showed us that global survival is possible with significantly lower CO2 emissions; that was an extreme case, of course, but finding a middle ground between that and the extreme we call “normal life” is absolutely feasible and achievable.
The problem is not finding a solution but people accepting it.
There is no middle ground, we ignored this problem for far too long for us to not have to do something extreme to try and solve it.
Yeah, the pandemic revealed a quick and easy way to drastically cut CO2 emissions. Humanity really doesn’t need to travel as much as we do, at least not by plane. A lot, and I really mean a lot, of air traffic is for stuff which should be solved with online meetings. I see this at work too, everything got solved online during the pandemic. But, as soon as restrictions were lifted people absolutely HAD to travel by plane somewhere for a meeting and then return home on a plane, often doing both trips in the same day. Sure some of the air traffic is for leisure, sightseeing and so on. I don’t like travelling far myself so I’m a bit biased, but do we really need to fly around the world 5 times a year? We survived the pandemic by staying at home, surely we can cut down on some air traffic to save the world?
Aviation accounts for 2.5% of CO2 emissions and 4% of global warming.
Not just that, but making people commute to an office to do what they can easily do at home is fucking stupid
you can buy a cheap trinket from China and have it delivered to your door for like $2.
10-15% is not significant.
Even 0.00001 % can be significant depending on context. You can not just say “nah my gut tells me that’s not a large number and therefore it’s not significant”. Missing the context of the data can lead to unfaithful and wrong interpretations. Just look at physicists how crazy they can get when they’ve made a 10^-7 more accurate measurement of a universal constant. Furthermore, we also have mathematical methods to investigate the significance of statistical measurements.
But enough ranting, getting to the context now:
First the numbers: depending on source, the estimate of the temporary reduction in CO2 emissions varies, but all agree that it dropped sharply. For example, the IEA estimates about 5,8 % reduction in energy related emissions IEA and notes:
Global CO2 emissions declined by 5.8% in 2020, or almost 2 Gt CO2 – the largest ever decline and almost five times greater than the 2009 decline that followed the global financial crisis.
Now the context to answer: was it significant?
Looking at various data:- A Nature Climate Change study estimated the direct pandemic-driven effect as only about 0.01 ± 0.005°C cooling by 2030 compared with a baseline scenario. Nature That’s like a drop of water on a hot stone.
- The IPCC concluded with high confidence that COVID-related emission reductions were not thought to have caused a detectable change in global temperature and were within variability. IPCC
Furthermore, emissions rebound quickly.
We can pull out even more. But to keep it short:
No. It was indeed not significant and in this case you’re right.However, it also highlighted other things: the reduction in total emissions and emission rates dropped sharply, showing that if we would’ve wanted to, we could have done more to fight climate change long ago. (Although the emissions were still rising overall, despite the drop.) We still can.
Secondly, numerous reports revealed significant improvements in air quality in the short amount of time. So at least in this regard, it was indeed a significant change.Overall it wasn’t totally meaningless. Although it didn’t really do anything against climate change, it revealed our potential for long term impacts.
Thanks for coming to my TED talk.
It’s not significant meaning it’s not a good solution. Covid didn’t see reductions in emissions from its largest source: power generation.
Covid isn’t a good example on how to reduce emissions. It is a good example on how carbon-dependent our economy is.
Wdym by “if we wanted to”?? We as a species have always been able to turn shit off what are you talking about?
Wont somebody think of the profits??
The ONLY source that told me that current heat waves are NOT related to current super El Niño (which will affect Europe in late summer) is the DW. ALL others says that El Niño is a significant factor in that.
Have you dig into the data about that and what they says?
It’s okay. The collapse of the AMOC will bring a nice chill.
That’s only if it partially or wholly collapses. If it doesn’t get affected or weakly, Europe’s still gonna heat up a ton.
Betting on that is risky. And what would the effects be on the water environment?
I wonder how that will turn out? There is no telling really, we can’t know just guess.
Yeah, seems difficult to guess how it will affect Europe. Certainly no more ice free coastlines in the north during winter though.
But for North America it might end up much worse.
The hot water will stay in the Gulf of Mexico, so hurricanes might end up being insane.
Reuters had a heat map that has showed daily the average for this day and today’s high in europe. I was surprised that europe was so cool in the summer. Northern Germeny and France are like 70 degrees, even italy and spain it’s like an 80 average.
Pretty sure the balkans always get sweltering in the summer.
21 and 27°C.
You’re on c/europeI mean, the entire world really.
Sorry bro, taking 21 and multiplying by 9 then dividing by five then adding 32, or vice versa, is not going to happen everytime. I am sorry I use imperial standards, but that is where we are at, We won’t change, we (not me) think we are special. Nevertheless the metric system I only see as partially better. Stupid logic.
There’s so much to unpack from your comment. I can’t decide my favorite: that you posted in a European community and misunderstood the temperatures you read as Fahrenheit, or that you doubled down and said America isn’t going to change their measurement system—somehow justifying misreading the temperatures in a community that is the standard.
deleted by creator
Fast. People adopt to far crazyer things.
