A reminder that as the US continues to threaten countries around the world, fedposting is to be very much avoided (even with qualifiers like “in Minecraft”) and comments containing it will be removed.

Image is of Iranian speedboats spotted by a satellite in the Strait of Hormuz.


Not terribly much has happened in the last week. The main two developments is the very much expected resumption of fire in Lebanon as the ZIonists are famously agreement-incapable, and the continuing supply of equipment to the Middle East, including the George H.W. Bush aircraft carrier. This means there are now three aircraft carriers in the general vicinity, and while I’m uncertain how much of a role the burnt-out Ford and the increasingly exhausted Lincoln will ultimately play (they were rather ineffective during the first round), there are also a good ~20 destroyers and however many submarines that are carrying their own munitions. I have a couple more paragraphs of exposition below, but it’s unlikely to be major news to anybody here, so I’ve spoilered it.

spoiler

On the one hand, it feels like a resumption of the war for the US at this point would be complete madness. We are getting article after article from even the Western media admitting to US standoff+interceptor missile shortages, as well as detailing the extensive damage to US bases. The Zionists are also getting ever more mired in Lebanon, with Hezbollah’s unjammable fibre optic drones playing an ever more prominent role in causing substantial long range damage to invading forces. On the other hand, it is very unlikely that most of the US’s remaining firepower is being brought to the region on a mere bluff. For its part, Iran and their allies seem to have their finger on the trigger, with their own extensive repairs, upgrades, resupplies, and adjustments having been made for round two.

Assessing the overall global economic situation is difficult, not least because of a degree of financial manipulation that is almost admirable in its sheer scale and recklessness - to quote Ghalibaf: “Their frontline is the yield curve.” Multiple countries are now facing real and desperate shortages, including major economies like Japan. Diesel prices continue their record rises, and reports about the potential impacts to all sectors of the global economy are streaming in, with famines around the world now very likely. While the US is profiting from the rise in oil prices, it seems like it will be unable to meaningfully increase production for at least a year or two, and so the US will certainly not be replacing the massive oil barrel deficit to create an energy hegemony, as some have suggested. In contrary: this is the best opportunity in a generation for China, Russia, and Iran to collectively make economic decisions that could cripple entire pillars of American hegemony. However, if the response is lacking - and we’ve all seen before over the last four years how China’s responses to crises have been on the lacking side - we could see a (albeit temporary) strengthening of the US’s financial power, as this global crisis will almost certainly result in debt climbing even higher as Western financial institutions grant loans en masse to struggling countries in the developing world. It’s very uncertain times.

Last week’s thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine

If you have evidence of Zionist crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on the Zionists’ destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


  • Fousseynou Ouattara, Vice President of Mali’s Defense and Security Commission, thanked Russia’s Africa Corps for their assistance in helping defeat the Western-backed coup attempt over the weekend:

    “I have no words to describe the actions of the Africa Corps soldiers. Their participation in thwarting the diabolical plot to overthrow Mali’s transitional leadership was decisive,” Ouattara pointed out.

    According to him, Russian specialists were on the front lines from the very beginning. “Their skill and professionalism enabled us to achieve great success in fighting armed terrorist groups,” he emphasized.

    https://tass.com/world/2123633

  • The cost of war keeps climbing. US gas prices reached a four year high today:

    Gas prices in the US reached their highest level in four years on 28 April, as US-Iran negotiations remain in a stalemate due to Washington’s insistence on maintaining an illegal blockade during the ceasefire.

    A six-cent increase has pushed the price up to $4.18, marking the biggest jump in gas prices in the past five weeks. Prior to this, the average gas price in the US had fallen to $4.02 for two weeks following the start of the ceasefire.

    https://thecradle.co/articles/us-gas-prices-hit-four-year-high-amid-stalemate-in-iran-truce-talks

  • Lovely_sombrero [he/him]@hexbear.net
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    11
    ·
    2 hours ago

    API inventory Moves 04/28/2026

    Crude -1.79 million Gasoline -8.47 million Distillates -2.6 million Cushing -820,000 SPR -7.1 million

    Ouch! The SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserve) drained almost 2% of capacity in one week. It would probably drain even more if they had the ability to physically move more oil out of it. But SPR can’t be drained to zero for all sorts of reasons - you need a backup for later, some of the oil on the bottom probably has too much sulfur in it and is unusable, draining too much oil from the caves can make the caves unstable.

  • darkcalling [comrade/them, she/her]@hexbear.net
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    26
    ·
    edit-2
    2 hours ago

    “Iran using Hormuz as ‘economic nuclear weapon’ – Marco Rubio” (Orig RT link)

    This is worrying to me in that talking of them using it as a nuclear weapon invites the idea that the US can use real nuclear weapons to counter their “economic nuke”. It’s setting the groundwork for a justification there and/or threatening Iran not so subtlety that the US will use nukes if they don’t comply.

    • InexplicableLunchFiend [he/him]@hexbear.net
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      17
      ·
      edit-2
      2 hours ago

      On the other hand, the Trump regime constantly uses implied threats of nuclear attacks even when they don’t have intention of following through. Remember his messages to Kim Jong Un during his first term where he was escalating rhetorically about having bigger nuclear weapons and that he had a button he could press? This administration constantly uses the “madman” Nixonian tactic where they try to intimidate their geopolitical rivals via acting erratically and irrationally for “strategic ambiguity”.

  • ourtimewillcome [any]@hexbear.net
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    49
    ·
    5 hours ago

    German politicians fall for phishing messages, blame Russia.

    full text

    Kraut media is currently in an uproar over the fact that several high-ranking government officials had their data stolen after falling for phishing messages disguised as coming from the Signal messaging app. Deeply unserious headlines now accuse Russia of allegedly jeopardizing Germany’s national security by “hacking Signal,” even though the perpetrators have not yet been identified and the app itself was not actually compromised in any way.

    According to media reports, several German politicians have fallen victim to a phishing campaign in recent weeks. According to information from Der Spiegel, Education Minister Karin Prien (CDU), Construction Minister Verena Hubertz (SPD), and Bundestag President Julia Klöckner (CDU) have been affected. Other politicians, journalists, and military personnel have also been targeted.

    In the current phishing attack, the attackers are posing as Signal support staff, among other things. Users are asked to enter their PIN or scan a code. If they do so, the attackers gain access to messages, photos, and documents that have been shared via Signal. Despite lacking evidence, Russia is blamed for the attack.

    While German government has not yet officially attributed the attack to Russia, media like Die Zeit has nonetheless set its sights on the country: Berlins reluctance could supposedly “be related to the fact that it might compromise intelligence gathered by allied intelligence services.” But according to the Die Zeit article, the Federal Public Prosecutor’s Office, which is investigating the alleged espionage in Germany, has also not yet commented on a possible instigator. Die Zeit adds, however, without getting specific or offering citations, that the German government “apparently” assumes “presumed” Russian responsibility.

    It can be noted: The perpetrators are apparently still unknown, and the methods they used (phishing messages) do not, in and of themselves, initially point to a “state actor” at all, as is now being claimed everywhere. The phishing scam is also not “sophisticated” or “perfidious” or in any way a Russian specialty: The scam is widely known and can be carried out without much effort (and without a “state actor” backing it).

    It is just as easy to fend off such campaigns by following well-known rules. Given the apparent lack of IT security expertise among many politicians, one can only underscore what Linus Neumann of the Chaos Computer Club says about the incident:

    It wasn’t Signal that was hacked, but Ms. Klöckner herself. For someone holding the second-highest office in the country, this is a significant personal failure, but it is part of a system that made it possible.

    The fact that the circumstances regarding the perpetrators remain unclear has not stopped some politicians and journalists from exploiting the phishing campaign for their anti-Russian agenda and simply giving the impression that there is genuine evidence the campaign originated from the Russian government. For example, the Süddeutsche Zeitung is already reporting without any reservations of a “Russian espionage attack”:

    Russia’s espionage attack on top German politicians has sparked a heated debate over the security of government communications.

    The newspaper cites German security authorities as its source: they are reported to be “certain” that the phishing attack was “once again” orchestrated from Russia. The German government shares this assessment, though it’s not explained in what terms or on what factual basis. The U.S. FBI is cited as another source for the claim that the Russian state was responsible, and some media outlets also mention the Dutch intelligence agency. As usual, it remains unclear how these sources arrived at their supposedly certain identification of the perpetrators.

    In some quarters, meanwhile, trust in such claims knows no bounds. There, the perpetrators are already deemed certain, even if this leads to contradictions: For instance, Konstantin von Notz, deputy leader of the Green Party parliamentary group, tells the ARD’s Berlin bureau that it is not easy to identify the source of the attacks. On the other hand, he declares with absolute conviction, as if a proper court had identified the guilty parties in a transparent proceeding:

    This espionage attack must serve as a wake-up call for all security agencies. We must understand what Moscow’s agenda is here: Russia has declared Germany an enemy. These attacks are real and pose a genuine threat to our security. Every day, agents are operating here, spying and planning acts of sabotage.

    CDU security policy specialist Roderich Kiesewetter goes a step further and, despite the nonexistant factual basis, is not surprisingly calling for radical measures. “Russia must be stopped, at every level,” he told the Handelsblatt. “We should implement every measure we can to credibly strengthen our deterrence.” Kiesewetter advocated, among other things, expelling Russian diplomats and supplying “Taurus” cruise missiles to Ukraine.

    According to media reports, CDU lawmaker Marc Henrichmann, chairman of the Bundestag’s Parliamentary Control Panel (PKGr) for the oversight of intelligence services, became the first German politician to blame Russia for the phishing attempts on Friday:

    The latest phishing attempt from Russia targeting German politicians and journalists is a wake-up call for all of us.

    As the Süddeutsche Zeitung reports, government officials actually have access to extremely secure communication channels, such as specially encrypted devices and lines. However, according to the paper, these are considered complicated and impractical because popular apps cannot be used through them. Furthermore, according to the Federal Office for Information Security, 62 percent of Germans have received phishing messages at some point. Obviously, the method is neither new nor “sophisticated” nor “Russian,” and it doesn’t require a “state actor” either. The FBI could warn all governments (and all private citizens) year-round about such widespread attacks. And Russians are the only ones who are supposed to have mastered this trick?

    Based on current information, it is much more likely that the German politicians involved fell victim to their own complacency and ignorance rather than to some sinister force. That would, of course, be very embarrassing for those involved; an exaggerated Russian bogeyman is thus conjured provide a welcome distraction from their own failures while simultaneously further entrenching anti-Russian hysteria.

    On a different note, there is, thanks to U.S. whistleblower Edward Snowden, hard evidence that another country has been conducting massive espionage operations against German politicians, including the Chancellors office, and is presumably still engaging in such practices.

  • Tervell [he/him]@hexbear.net
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    40
    ·
    edit-2
    6 hours ago

    so, it seems the offensive in Mali did manage to take Kidal, but failed elsewhere. I hadn’t looked at a map of the positions in Mali before this, but the goverment’s positions in the north are like wildly overstretched, it really doesn’t seem in any way defensible to just have that thin tendril of territory extending northwards. However, it seems like some kind of deal has been made with the Tuaregs in the region?

    https://xcancel.com/Dr_SMO/status/2048747597528023380

    AIRPORT SECURED: Africa Corps and Malian Forces Crush Insurgent Assault on Bamako! 🇲🇱🇷🇺✈️

    New, extended footage reveals the intense defense of the Modibo Keita International Airport near the capital, Bamako. While terrorists attempted a high-stakes breakthrough, the Russian Africa Corps (AK) and the Malian Armed Forces (FAMa) met them with overwhelming mechanized power.

    Strategic Victory: Unlike the distant front in Kidal, the strategic gateway of Bamako was successfully held. The militants failed to penetrate the perimeter, suffering heavy losses and retreating in chaos. The airport remains under full government control.


    https://xcancel.com/YuriPodolyaka/status/2049170759793209798

    Mali - Final report on the battles of April 25-26

    more

    So, yesterday in the afternoon, after negotiations with the Tuaregs, our units of the “African Corps”, without allowing the enemy to take a single of our positions by force & in view of the already started political negotiations (which, in my opinion, should have been conducted long ago), under orders, a large column left Kidal. Moreover, along with the fighters of the “AK” (about 200 people), about a 100 soldiers of the Malian army also left with us. We also took with us (without leaving it to the enemy) all the serviceable heavy equipment & ammunition & our dead. Thus, it is precisely this, largely symbolic act, that puts an end to the battles of April 25-26. Which, perhaps, will be the starting point for a future political settlement in the country. Since simultaneously with the withdrawal of troops from Kidal, local Tuareg groups (marked in green on the map) suspended their military actions against the central authorities. The decision in the current situation is absolutely justified & the only correct one. If the negotiations are successful for the Tuaregs & they receive broad autonomy in the north of Mali & one of the most important internal fronts of the civil war in the country disappears. Which will allow us to further eliminate radical Islamist groups & end the war altogether.

    However, personally, I would prefer the first option. And here’s why. Above, we presented a general map of the large civil war in the territories of 3 countries of the “Russian zone of responsibility” (Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger), which is not 3 separate wars, but 1. On it, we see that in addition to the Tuaregs supporting an independent (or autonomous) Azawad (again, marked in green), the governments of these countries have 2 more important headaches. With which there is simply nothing to negotiate. These are radical Islamists from the Sahelian ISIS (marked in black on the map) and the Malian branch of Al-Qaeda - “Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin” (both are considered terrorists in Russia). The latter are marked in white on the map. And it’s clear that having militant Tuaregs in the rear, who, moreover, have long wanted to negotiate, is simply stupid. At the same time, it’s noteworthy that during the battles of April 25-26 in the Gao and Bourem regions, which were simultaneously attacked from all sides by Islamic radicals, local Tuaregs (marked in yellow on the map) fought alongside the government army and helped repel this attack. That is, the basis for an agreement with the northern Tuaregs is definitely there and today it’s just an ideal chance to conclude an agreement and start a joint war against the radicals. Who are enemies to everyone else. And therefore, no one is being polite with them either yesterday or today, and they, taking advantage of the defeat of the day before yesterday, continue to be cleared in as large a number as possible (so that it will be easier to finish them off in the future).

    It’s noteworthy that mercenaries from Ukraine are fighting alongside these terrorists in Africa. Although this doesn’t surprise anyone anymore, since the owners of both are the same Anglo-Saxon elites. And Ukrainians and Islamic radicals are just expendable material for them. Such is the situation in Mali now at the end of two days of battles. In fact, if their results are used correctly, it’s possible to solve the whole problem once and for all. And therefore, I very much hope for this result. Furthermore, in these battles, our guys from the “African Corps” have already received a full-fledged baptism of fire and showed that they are the main military force of the region. Determining its future… Further more in detail on the situation in Mali & not only, I traditionally recommend the channel “African Initiative” in Telegram (whose journalists work in the region and who were able to understand the situation for me): https://t.me/africaninitiative

    This is perhaps a bit too cope-y of an assessment, but still, hopefully these negotiations can bear fruit. While many of us here are probably pretty disinclined towards any breakaway states in Mali owing to the Middle Eastern experience with the Kurds, it’s important to remember that Mali, just as many other post-colonial states, has weird borders with very messy demographics within them. Open up this and the earlier map side-by-side and note where Kidal is

    So there may be a Sudan split scenario in the future here, dunno, any more serious Mali/Sahel-heads might be able to speak better on this

    And finally, even with the government losing some positions, they nevertheless seem to have inflicted substantial casualties on the insurgents, we’ll see if those groups will actually be able to maintain further offensive actions or stall out.


    Mali - Afterword: THE TOUAREGS…

    This round of the struggle (following the battles of April 25-26) went in our favor. Yes, we had to retreat from Kidal, but as I wrote earlier, this was the lesser of two evils considering the forces that were deployed by our opponents to… let’s be honest - attempt to overthrow the regime in the country and thereby undermine the central pillar of Russia’s system of control over West Africa. And from now on, everything will depend on how the Tuareg problem is resolved. Will we be able to win them over to our side and subsequently use them to eliminate the remaining enemies? In fact, this is the most correct way out of the situation. And for a detailed analysis of the Tuareg issue, read the material from the “African Initiative”: “Not all Tuaregs are inclined to escalate the conflict with Bamako.” https://afrinz.ru/2026/04/daleko-ne-vse-tuaregi-nastroeny-na-eskalatsiyu-konflikta-s-bamako-ekspert-o-vozmozhnosti-razresheniya-krizisa-v-mali/

    The guys are deeply immersed in the topic and are on the ground (in fact, this is an information platform specifically tailored to the region and doing a good job with it).

    from that article:

    Malian authorities have repeatedly resorted to diplomatic means to resolve the military crisis in the north of the country. Back in May 2013, Tuareg leaders created the High Council of Azawad, and even then, the council’s president, former Kidal MP Mohamed Ag Intalla, called on the largest Tuareg rebel groups to join peace talks with Bamako. A year later, in May 2014, Malian authorities and three Tuareg separatist groups signed a ceasefire agreement and prisoner exchange. By early summer 2015, the parties had reached the signing of peace agreements. These agreements became known as the Algiers Accords. They envisaged, among other things, the establishment of self-government and autonomous governance for the Azawad region within the Malian state.

    despite the open confrontation, in 2024, representatives of the Tuareg coalition publicly stated their openness to initiatives and proposals for resolving the conflict in northern Mali, including with the participation of third parties.

    • Tervell [he/him]@hexbear.net
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      27
      ·
      edit-2
      6 hours ago

      @CyborgMarx@hexbear.net some potential explanation for why Algeria doesn’t seem to be doing much in Mali, since I remembered you wondering that in the previous thread and just came across some details while reading the article in the post above https://archive.ph/qlBa4

      Regarding the possibility of broader contacts and agreements between the Malian authorities and Azawad structures, Sergei Balmasov notes that Algeria’s position could hinder these. Although Algerian media advocates a diplomatic resolution to the crisis, Malians do not fully trust Algeria

      According to the expert, Mali openly claims that Algerian intelligence services are attempting to facilitate the secession of the north of the country by providing various logistical support to Azawad separatists, which could be used, among other things, to purchase weapons. The expert cited the issue of fuel supplies as an example, noting that Algeria could be one of the few possible sources of supply. Malian military and intelligence officials have previously observed a coordinating role for Algerian intelligence services, during the 2024 battle near Tinzaouaten , when Tuareg separatists also allied with jihadists. For Bamako [capital of Mali], any agreement on Algeria’s terms would mean a serious loss of sovereignty. Algeria has traditionally viewed the Sahel as its primary area of ​​influence and seeks to cement its status as a key regional power, similar to Turkey. In such a scenario, Mali’s room for full sovereign maneuver would be significantly reduced. Balmasov sees Algeria’s interests in “selecting the Sahel for itself,” which for Algeria, “as a CIS zone for us, is perhaps even more important.”

      it is in Algeria’s interests to inflict a limited defeat on Mali, but the Algerians are not interested in the defeat of the Malian army

      Moreover, not all groups within Azawad’s structures are aligned with Algeria. "Some of them warn that Algeria is essentially ‘preparing a noose for us with our own hands,’ and that they will never allow the existence of an independent Tuareg state due to the Tuareg problem within Algeria itself," the expert concluded.

      • mkultrawide [any]@hexbear.net
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        19
        ·
        edit-2
        5 hours ago

        Interesting. I’m far from a Sahel understander, but my first guess as to where weapons and supplies are coming from wouldn’t have been Algeria. JNIM makes most of its money selling gold to the UAE, Turkey, and Switzerland, and parts of their territory also directly borders Mauritania, one of the few Sahel countries with an active JSOC presence wherein the US is engaged in a 127e “counterterrorism and border security” operation in partnership with the Mauritanian military.

        • Tervell [he/him]@hexbear.net
          link
          fedilink
          English
          arrow-up
          17
          ·
          edit-2
          5 hours ago

          I think this is specifically about the Azawad groups (the guys in green on the 1st map), who do indeed border only Algeria (although the Tuareg-populated region as a whole does also border Mauritania and Niger)

      • CyborgMarx [any, any]@hexbear.net
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        23
        ·
        6 hours ago

        Goddamn that is some terrible state policy, a genuine crabs-in-a-bucket mentality

        Southern Algeria has always been unsecured territory and Algiers wants to make it worse, while a collapsed Libya sits on their western border and a hostile Morocco looms to their west, literally boxing themselves in with chaos incarnate and for what? More barren desert on a map? Braindead ultranationalism

        • not a lot of the claims are sourced, it could be just as likely that the supply chain goes from Libya through Niger, Algiers also made peace talks between the government and the Azawad groups back in 2015 that were broken a few years ago.

          The AES countries also tried to make Algeria as “state sponsor of terror” in the U.N.

  • Tervell [he/him]@hexbear.net
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    44
    ·
    edit-2
    7 hours ago

    bringing those factory jobs back! https://xcancel.com/HarmlessYardDog/status/2049114128376029290

    Pentagon mulls plan to outsource warship design, building to South Korea, Japan-SCMP https://archive.ph/fZ5iF

    The US industrial base has been so hollowed out, we’re having to outsource our warships to South Korea and Japan.

    https://xcancel.com/RefinedPopulist/status/2049119938707603751

    Wasn’t the whole point of the South Korean trade deal that they invest in America’s shipyards so we could rebuild lost institutional knowledge?

  • HarryLime [any]@hexbear.net
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    42
    ·
    7 hours ago

    UAE leaves OPEC in major blow to global oil producers’ group

    DUBAI, April 28 (Reuters) - The United Arab Emirates said on Tuesday it was ​quitting OPEC, dealing a heavy blow to the oil producers’ group as an unprecedented energy crisis triggered by the Iran war exposes discord among Gulf ‌nations.

    The loss of the UAE, a longstanding OPEC member, could weaken the group, which has usually sought to show a united front despite internal disagreements over geopolitics and production quotas.

    UAE Energy Minister Suhail Mohamed al-Mazrouei told Reuters the decision was taken after a careful look at the regional power’s energy strategies.

    Asked whether the UAE consulted with OPEC’s de facto leader and regional heavyweight Saudi Arabia, he said ​the UAE did not raise the issue with any other country.

    “This is a policy decision, it has been done after a careful look at current and ​future policies related to level of production,” said the energy minister.

    The UAE’s announcement trimmed gains in oil prices on Tuesday.

    PRODUCTION CONSTRAINED BY ⁠IRAN WAR

    OPEC Gulf producers have been struggling to ship exports through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint between Iran and Oman through which a fifth of the world’s crude oil ​and liquefied natural gas normally passes, because of Iranian threats and attacks against vessels.

    Mazrouei said the UAE’s move, in which it will leave OPEC and OPEC+ as of May ​1, would not have a huge impact on the market because of the constraints in the strait.

    The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia are known collectively as OPEC+, and the UAE was their fourth-largest producer. Together they controlled nearly half the world’s oil before the war.

    The International Energy Agency said OPEC+ saw its share of global oil output fall to 44% in ​March from about 48% in February. It is likely to fall further in April as production shut-ins become more pronounced.

    “This opens the door for the UAE to gain ​global market share when the geopolitical situation normalises,” said Monica Malik, chief economist at ADCB.

    The exit should be positive for consumers and the broader global economy, she added.

    The UAE is a regional ‌business and ⁠financial hub and one of Washington’s most important allies. It has pursued an assertive foreign policy and carved its own sphere of influence across the Middle East and Africa.

    The UAE has recently doubled down on its relationships with the United States and Israel, with which it opened ties in the 2020 Abraham Accords, especially after coming under attack during the Iran war. It views the relationship with Israel as a critical lever for regional influence and a unique channel to Washington.

    WIN FOR TRUMP

    The UAE’s exit from OPEC represents a win ​for U.S. President Donald Trump, who in a ​2018 address to the U.N. General ⁠Assembly accused the organisation of “ripping off the rest of the world” by inflating oil prices.

    Trump has also linked U.S. military support for the Gulf with oil prices, saying that while the U.S. defends OPEC members they “exploit this by imposing high oil prices”.

    The UAE’s ​departure came after Anwar Gargash, the diplomatic adviser for the UAE president, criticised the Arab and Gulf response to recent Iranian ​attacks in a session ⁠at the Gulf Influencers Forum on Monday.

    Some Gulf leaders met in person on Tuesday in Saudi Arabia, a summit that a Gulf official said aimed to craft a response to the thousands of Iranian missile and drone strikes their nations have faced since the U.S. and Israel launched their war with Iran in late February.

    The UAE’s OPEC exit also comes as global ⁠spare capacity hovers ​at historically low levels, leaving the oil market increasingly tight.

    Operating outside the producer group allows the UAE ​to fully leverage its position as a supplier of some of the world’s lowest-cost and lowest-carbon barrels.

    Mazrouei noted the UAE has been a member of OPEC and OPEC+ for a long time, but he said the ​world would demand more energy, suggesting his country’s move will help meet those needs.

    • darkcalling [comrade/them, she/her]@hexbear.net
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      3
      ·
      2 hours ago

      I can’t help but see this in terms of the new petrogas dollar order Medhurst and others have talked about. Namely the UAE as an exceptionally obedient vassal has been given the US sanction to sell and profit as much as they can while others cannot. Perhaps a way of punishing some of the other Gulf states for their minor flirting with China and as a way to keep the world economy from collapsing while still allowing US corporations massive profits.

    • immuredanchorite [he/him, any]@hexbear.net
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      20
      ·
      5 hours ago

      It is sort of puzzling how, after the US provokes a conflict and then demonstrates it cannot protect the UAE at all… they double down on the US as a regional guarantor and forsake even a nominally independent foreign policy

    • jmo [he/him, comrade/them]@hexbear.net
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      20
      ·
      6 hours ago

      Curious to see if/how this relates to the credit swap the US has been discussing with the UAE. If you can count on the Trump administration for anything it’s to be extremely transactional.

  • Redcuban1959 [any]@hexbear.netM
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    35
    ·
    7 hours ago

    United Arab Emirates announced on Tuesday that it has withdrawn from OPEC and OPEC+, delivering a major blow to the oil-exporting alliances.

    According to Reuters, the “significant loss of the UAE,” a long-time OPEC member, could lead to instability and weaken the group, which has traditionally aimed to present a united front despite internal disagreements over issues ranging from geopolitics to production quotas.

    Gulf producers within OPEC have already faced difficulties exporting through the Strait of Hormuz due to the US-Israeli war on #Iran

    The decision follows criticism from the UAE a key regional business hub and one of Washington’s closest allies, of Arab states accusing them of failing to adequately protect it from repeated Iranian retaliation during the war.

    • quarrk [he/him]@hexbear.net
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      22
      ·
      edit-2
      6 hours ago

      “This opens the door for the UAE to gain ​global market share when the geopolitical situation normalises,” said Monica Malik, chief economist at ADCB.

      Can someone spell it out for me? How does this open that door?

      • TrippyFocus@lemmy.ml
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        23
        ·
        edit-2
        6 hours ago

        They’re no longer bound to limit production in line with how OPEC decides is best so they can potentially export more now (once shipping from the strait resumes) which will gain market share.

        Probably a good idea since with China switching to renewables we are likely near/past peak oil demand and with prices going to be elevated into next year now’s a good time to make as much as you can off oil.

      • Tervell [he/him]@hexbear.net
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        23
        ·
        edit-2
        6 hours ago

        OPEC has quotas on oil production - a country which leaves isn’t subject to those anymore, and can sell as much oil as they can produce https://archive.ph/8XxCr

        Opec is the organisation of mainly Gulf oil exporters, which for many decades controlled the price of crude oil by decreasing or increasing production and allocating quotas across its membership. It had a vital role in 1970s oil crises, which in turn transformed global energy policy. While Opec production is dominated by Saudi Arabia, the UAE had the second highest spare production capacity. In other words, it was the second most important swing producer, capable of increasing production to help ease prices. Indeed it is precisely this that led to long-term reconsiderations of the UAE’s position. Put simply, the UAE wanted to use the considerable capacity it has invested in. Opec quotas limited its production to 3-3.5 million barrels per day. Opec membership sacrifices, in terms of lost revenues, were being made disproportionately by the UAE.

        It’s not just that the UAE, when it can get its oil fully back on the market by sea or pipeline, is likely to target 5 million barrels per day production. Saudi Arabia might respond with an oil price war that the UAE’s more diversified economy could withstand, but other poorer Opec members might not.

        One way to read the UAE’s action is as a sign of this world of reduced oil reliance, and there have been some other clues in the current maelstrom: China’s investments in electrification have helped cushion the economic blow from rising oil and gas prices. By some calculations, the electrification of China’s cars, lorries, and trains has reduced oil demand in the world’s second biggest economy by 1 million barrels a day. Global oil demand could plateau as this trend accelerates around the world. In this view, it makes sense to raise as much money from oil reserves as quickly as possible before demand craters. The UAE has financial firepower and a partly diversified economy, through financial services and tourism. Much will depend on what the new normal becomes if and when hostilities in the Gulf cease.

  • Tervell [he/him]@hexbear.net
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    46
    ·
    edit-2
    8 hours ago

    https://xcancel.com/ArmchairW/status/2048940501311570100

    Russian soldiers stormed Grishino using captured equipment; the Ukrainian troops were thrown into confusion when they were attacked by American Bradleys and M-113s. The soldiers also collected more trophies. In the basement of one of the houses from which Ukrainian Army operators launched heavy hexacopters armed with mines, they discovered a drone control center with fully functional equipment.

    You’ll notice Russian infantry - on top of the usual dispersed tactics with pair or even solo operations - use large numbers of hand-thrown satchel charges to clear structures in close combat, even in fairly rural contexts. This is another universe from NATO infantry doctrine.

    https://xcancel.com/vonloringen/status/2048947682408865849

    Inexcusably, on NATO’s part. Using HE in the form of grenades, satchel charges & mines to clear out defenders in any structure, building or trench, was SOP for Germans in 1917, SOP on both sides of WW2 East Front, & became SOP by 1944 in West. Only Russians seem to remember this.

    https://xcancel.com/SpyMonkey3D/status/2048941677788692807

  • Redcuban1959 [any]@hexbear.netM
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    24
    ·
    7 hours ago

    ANDIS scandal continues to tarnish the image of the Argentine government - Prensa Latina

    Article

    Buenos Aires, April 28 (Prensa Latina) Diego Sapagnuolo, a close friend of President Javier Milei who headed the National Disability Agency (ANDIS), appears today before the court that will expand his questioning for new facts related to the bribery scandal.

    This Tuesday begins a series of 35 investigations in the case that implicates Karina Milei, the president’s sister and secretary general of the Presidency, in which criminal maneuvers involving more than 75 billion pesos (54 million 348 thousand dollars) are being investigated.

    Among those summoned will be those accused of laundering “black money” obtained at ANDIS, including Alan Pocovi, linked to the Menem family, and Sergio Mastropietro, the former partner of Fred Machado, who was accused of drug trafficking and extradited to the United States where he is being tried by a court in Texas.

    Spagnuolo is the central figure in the “Coimagate” case, which investigates a massive corruption scheme at ANDIS during the libertarian government. The defendant, who was also the president’s lawyer, will be the first of the 35 people summoned by Judge Ariel Lijo, now in charge of the case at the instruction of prosecutor Franco Picardi, to testify.

    According to Picardi, the former director of ANDIS is one of the leaders of the criminal organization. In a series of leaked audio recordings that triggered the media frenzy surrounding this case, Spagnuolo can be heard saying that a bribery system operated within the agency under his command, ultimately reaching Karina Milei.

    His defense claims that the recordings were altered, but an analysis of the defendants’ cell phones reveals references to “3 percent for KM.” This 3 percent figure is the same one the former head of ANDIS is heard saying in the leaked audio recordings released by Carnaval Stream.

    In addition to Spagnuolo, Daniel María Garbellini, who was in charge of the “Incluir Salud” program—the department from which the manipulated purchases currently under investigation were made—is scheduled to appear in court this Tuesday. Garbellini is one of the 19 people already charged in the case.

    This process further tarnishes the image of the government, and especially of the Milei brothers. On Monday, Torcuato Di Tella University released its Government Confidence Index (GCI), which reflects that Argentinians have increasingly less confidence in their president.

    The ICG, prepared by that private institution, shows that this indicator fell 12.1 percent in April, marking four consecutive months of decline.

    The deterioration of the index was widespread, as all five components showed negative variations in April, with particularly marked declines in key areas of government performance evaluation.

    The Efficiency parameter saw the largest decline, at 21.4 percent, followed by the General Evaluation of the Government (-17.2%) and Concern for the general interest (-13.9%).

    The Honesty component fell by 8.4 percent and the Capacity to govern fell by 2 percentage points.

    A trio of polls whose results were released in recent days found that more than 60 percent of Argentinians are currently dissatisfied with the government management of Milei and his executive team.