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Cake day: February 19th, 2025

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  • Tuukka R@sopuli.xyztoSuomi@sopuli.xyzMikä on Sopuli?
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    11 days ago

    Kysymykseen “mikä tämän taustalla on”:

    Tämän taustalla on se, että yksittäinen suomalainen yksityishenkilö on päättänyt pistää omalla ajallaan ja omalla rahallaan pystyyn Lemmy-palvelimen. Kaipa saa siihen jonkin verran lahjoituksia avuksi, mutta pohjimmiltaan tämän takana on se, että yksi tavallinen talliainen on halunnut Suomessa olevan tällaisen lemmy-instanssin. Joitain toisia Lemmyn instansseja pitävät yllä esim. järjestöt, jne.

    Jokaisella lemmy-instanssin perustajalla on siihen oma syynsä.

    Joka tapauksessa, tämän voin ja tahdon sanoa Sopulin olemassaolosta:

    Arvostan! 🐳







  • A Russian propaganda win is a win the sense that it enables Moscow to start a new war in a near future. If the Russia can make the 300 000 lost human lives look justified to its own population, it is able to make a micro-invasion into a NATO. In such a scenario, it takes the city of Narva and stops, hoping that at least Germany will refuse to help Estonia regain the city, thus functionally ending NATO. Even if Germany will turn out to help Estonia after all, the terror the people of Narva will have to endure in such a scenario will be horrible, and it also means there is a war between nuclear powers, which is a thing I’d like to avoid. And of course: Refusing to defend Estonia would not avoid the war, but helping Ukraine block the Russia from getting a propaganda victory does.

    The Russia must be prevented from getting a propaganda win, because if it does, there will be a war in EU.


  • The personnel number is a bit under what one would hope, as it means a (very) slight replenishment in the Russia’s manpower. They are recruiting in the ballpark 1300 soldiers per day, so this means the Russia’s army grew by a couple hundred soldiers today. Of course, 1100 lost is 1100 lost, and that means about 300 dead plus about 800 who tell their friends and family that the situation is absolutely not as told in television.

    The number of destroyed artillery systems is very good. This exceeds the Russia’s production capability by quite a bit. 110 “vehicles and fuel tanks”… I’ve lost track of what that number means these days… Does it include Ladas and motorbikes? Or only cargo equipment and such? 3 tanks in a day is nice, because that’s more than the Russia is producing. My understanding is that they are producing a tank once per day or two days. Or?


  • “Creeping forward” would be more acceptable, but still a gross misrepresentation of reality.

    The 0.7 % of “advancing” changes nothing regarding the outcome of the war in comparison to complete stability. Also, in World War I the front was not 100 % stable either. There was advancing taking place all the time, but our history books write of it as a stagnant front, because it was indeed functionally stagnant, just like the front in this war has been since mid-2022.

    The problem is, a lot of people assume that “creeping forward” means something like 5 % of Ukraine’s territory per year, and that misunderstanding affects their willingness to support Ukraine. If they knew that the Russia has not advanced meaningfully in the last three years, their view of the situation would be dramatically different.


  • I’d say 5 % is a good trigger number. Maybe even 2 %. Though, it would still take them decades to take over all of Ukraine even if they were to advance at a pace of 2% per year.

    For losing my home, it is not relevant if that’s because of the Russia advancing or not. It could be retreating at a speed of 5% of Ukraine’s total territory per year, but if it manages to take over my village, I’ve got a bad situation all the same.

    The “advancing” is a very bad phrase because it makes Ukraine’s situation look hopeless to many. “The Russia has been creeping forward” is a very different story from “The frontline has been largely stagnant since summer 2022.”

    A significant fraction of people in many countries in the west are against helping Ukraine because they think Ukraine will not be able to regain the occupied territories anyway. They wouldn’t think that way if the news were talking about a stagnant frontline as is the reality instead of talking about the Russia “creeping forward” or even “advancing”. For the outcome of the war the 0.7 % advance in year 2024 had no significance over a completely stagnant frontline. A good question is: How much did the front line move during the “stagnant” phase of World War I? We could very well write in our history books that either Germany or France was creeping forward, but somehow we are writing that the frontline was stagnant, even though advances of several tens or even hundreds of metres took place more or less often.