My summary of the situation as I understand it is in spoiler tags below.
summary
After many long weeks, Iran and the US have agreed that they’re going to begin negotiations on certain topics in a process lasting at least 60 days. Due to America’s perfidy during previous negotiations, trust has broken down so far that Iran demanded $12 billion of their frozen funds and several other promises, such as the end to the naval blockade, to even return to the table, which seems perfectly reasonable to me. Iran also demanded that negotiations take place in two stages, and that nuclear issues will only be discussed in the second stage, which will be several weeks from now if everything goes as planned.
The terms of the MoU have themselves been a big source of confusion and suspicion, for me and many other pro-Iranian spectators. Getting the wording exactly correct is important, because the US really is like the devil - leave room for any possible interpretation in the contract that favors them more, and they’ll insist that this was the only interpretation up for discussion. Additionally, the US might be historically bad at winning wars, but they’re very, very good at winning peaces: they set up the post-WW2 order to best suit them by playing the European powers off each other; the DPRK might have survived the Korean War politically intact but existed for nearly the next hundred years as a sanctioned pariah; Vietnam was soon forced to economically engage with the country that had dropped triple of all the bomb tonnage of WW2 on them; and so on. It is no exaggeration when I say that the negotiation phase will be the most dangerous part of this war and it could lead to the most death and destruction without a single missile impacting Iran.
However, there’s one little genocidal colony in the region that could stop this whole process from even beginning, as the US appears to have promised Iran that the Zionists will stop the war against Lebanon (and perhaps Gaza too? I’m a little unclear) and even withdraw entirely from southern Lebanon, including all bases set up since this broader conflict began. Apparently, the US promised this in return for Iran not striking the Zionists in return for their most recent strike on Beirut on June 14th. Now, the issue with this whole situation is that the US greenlit the Zionist strike on Beirut, and they knew that Iran would respond to it because they did in response to an earlier strike. If the US made such major concessions to Iran in return for this response strike not occurring, then why authorize the Beirut strike at all? Why make their position worse? Right now, I can think of two reasons. First is that they attempted to create one final embarrassment for Iran, under the assumption that Iran was so desperate for a deal that they wouldn’t risk responding. Second is that this is all one big ruse or misdirection; the US does not intend to follow through with the MoU and subsequent negotiations anyway, and so the terms they’re “agreeing” to don’t really matter.
With the MoU signing apparently set for June 19th, we’ll know for sure soon.
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The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on the Zionists’ destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


supporting statements
Iran’s Central Military Command (Khatam al-Anbiya) warns ‘Israel’
Over the past 2 days, after the US president announced the end of the war, the terrorist army of the Zionist regime has violated the ceasefire in southern Lebanon 84 times and continues its crimes and the killing of the oppressed people of Lebanon.
Iran warns: if the child-killing army of the Zionist regime does not end its malicious actions in southern Lebanon, it should await a harsh response from the powerful Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Is there any reason to think the peace will hold
Probably until Market close Friday as in tradition.
I doubt it, but to the extent it doesn’t, it will almost certainly be caused by (and be seen to be caused by) israeli perfidy. the heightening of contradictions between israel & the US in the eyes of the electorate and the general public of the west is valuable in and of itself.
depends on if the US yanks the leash. if war returns, what can the imperialists do differently that will make their goals more achievable than during the first 40 days? It’s a lose lose situation, if trump wants this wrapped up before the midterms, he’s got to do max damage control between now and then, but that will require forcing israel to pull out. so, who knows, is basically what i’m saying
Checks out, yeah.
Electorally, yanking Israel’s leash would be an ENORMOUS win for the Republicans that would offset all the disasters they’ve created for themselves at the polls.
A bad enough oil or food shortage can overwhelm just about anything. Peoples lives may be destroyed
It would need to be an almost unilateral, simultaneous breakaway, otherwise AIPAC & friends will just find Republicans who give them what they want and bury the opposition like they did with Thomas Massie. Trump himself took a ton of money from people like Miriam Adelson, defying the donors will have serious repercussions.
I know AIPAC act like any concession is a total defeat, but it’s not like “yanking the chain” here means like, allowing right of return for Palestinians. It just means leaving Lebanon - a place they were not in until ~3 months ago. Especially since it seems Hezbollah has no interest in pursuing this any further if Israel leaves. It’s literally just an ego thing on Israel’s part. I don’t know if the IOF is getting their shit kicked in or not, but at the very least the occupation of parts of southern Lebanon is costly to them.
I’ve hear it’s an election thing for Netanyahu as well. His approval rating has tanked and he’s desperate for a W
These people just made hand over fist with the market manipulation over the last few months, losing the Israel lobby money right now could be written off as the cost of doing business. Israel lobby money is but one of the assets in their portfolios
I think it would break the fragile Trump coalition. Evangelicals love Israel, and the republican party needs them.
Where would they defect to? They’re still captured by class interest and abortion so I don’t think it would really be a big hit.
A lot of em already vote D. I have met a few of the vermin here in mexico, and before I was banned from Facebook, and in my experience they are as likely to vote for either party.
You do bring up a good point. It is difficult to imagine them not voting, but it is possible. I just fail to see them not revolting over screwing over Israel. The Christian lobby is the Israel lobby.
Strange times