A reminder that as the US continues to threaten countries around the world, fedposting is to be very much avoided (even with qualifiers like “in Minecraft”) and comments containing it will be removed.

Image is of Iranians celebrating the beginning of the ceasefire under the framework of Iran’s 10 Points.


Mere hours before Trump’s 8pm Tuesday deadline yesterday, Pakistan’s government contacted Iran with a US-written proposal for a two-week ceasefire, explicitly stated to also include Lebanon, during which they would negotiate a permanent end to the war on the basis of Iran’s 10 Points. Among other things, these points include 1) maintaining strict control (joint with Oman) over Hormuz, complete with a toll; 2) the end of sanctions on Iran; 3) keeping their enriched uranium; 4) a withdrawal of US forces from the Middle East [stated by the Supreme Leadership Council but not in the 10 Points, so who knows], and 5) some plausible guarantee that Iran would never be attacked again. I’ve heard rumors that China may have prodded Iran to accept these terms.

In theory, these are relatively confident and maximalist demands. In practice, Iran has already achieved military and economic control over Hormuz and the withdrawal of many US troops and bases from the region, so at least a few of Iran’s demands are, to a greater or lesser extent, already achieved, and with little hope for an increasingly exhausted US to undo these achievements short of nukes.

A couple hours after the ceasefire, the Zionist entity began a wave of airstrikes in Lebanon, killing hundreds of civilians, as well as flying drones into Iranian airspace. This was a strange move to make even if you assume - very sensibly - that the US is completely agreement non-capable: why not agree to the ceasefire and simply pretend to negotiate for two weeks while regrouping/repairing what assets you can and then start hitting Iran again?

One theory is that the Zionists are testing to what degree Iran is actually willing to have solidarity with Lebanon and Hezbollah. While the Resistance has been relatively united since October 7th, the formation of separate peaces instead of negotiating terms as a united front has been a major exploitable weakness. Alternatively, it’s been proposed that the US didn’t even consider using the ceasefire to regroup and deceive Iran, and that Trump merely wanted a way to chicken out of his threat on Iran’s electrical grid - the fact that US officials have since stated that Iran’s 10 Points were not the same ones they agreed to is a point supporting this, I suppose. If the conflict resumes and Trump does not deliver another 48 hour deadline (and/or makes it something silly like a month from now) then this could be the explanation.

From Iran, I am getting the sense that a lot is happening behind the scenes. Statements from top officials like Araghchi have stated quite plainly that there will be no ceasefire and no negotiations unless the Zionists stop attacking Lebanon, but as of ~24 hours after the ceasefire began, there has been no significant military response from Iran yet. There have apparently been phone calls between Araghchi and numerous regional officials, but it is unknown to what end. All the while, the global economic situation continues to deteriorate. Over the next week or two, the last tankers that left Hormuz before it closed will arrive at their destinations. If the missile exchanges begin once more, then the West, much like most of the rest of the world, will be experiencing all sorts of fuel, energy, food, and product shortages while trying to justify why they broke the ceasefire to kill more Lebanese civilians.


Last week’s thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine

If you have evidence of Zionist crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on the Zionists’ destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


  • Tervell [he/him]@hexbear.net
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    13 days ago

    https://xcancel.com/GrecianFormula/status/2044906752584417338

    The USS John C. Stennis entered the shipyard for a routine three-to-four-year overhaul and has been stuck there for five and a half years — with no guarantee the latest completion date will hold. The Navy doesn’t have enough welders, electricians, or nuclear engineers to finish.

    I’ve joked a couple of times that the US military is going to dissolve from decay before there’s even an opportunity for them to be destroyed at war, but with all these news coming in, uh… https://archive.ph/b9yH4

    5 Years of Repairs: The Navy Is ‘Down’ Another Aircraft Carrier Until 2027

    In another blow to the operational readiness of the U.S. Navy’s carrier fleet, the USS John C. Stennis (CVN-74) is still in port for repairs and will remain out of action until 2027. The ship’s Refueling and Complex Overhaul (RCOH) is taking longer than expected, challenging the Department of Defense’s doctrine that focuses on being able to fight two wars at once.

    more
    RCOHs are Complicated, Long-lasting, and Expensive

    It is somewhat understandable when an RCOH is delayed. This is the most difficult process a carrier faces during its service life. Not only does nuclear reactor refueling take substantial time, but other modernizations and updates happen alongside the process. The electronics must be upgraded. Living quarters are painted and refreshed. Combat systems may be outdated and require refurbishment. The ship’s structural components may need closer maintenance.

    The Stennis RCOH Will Eventually Have Taken 5.5 Years

    When an RCOH goes according to plan, it takes around three to four years. But the John C. Stennis has seen its major maintenance period extend to 5.5 years. It was supposed to be completed last August, but that date has been pushed back to October of this year. The Navy has a name for this long delay, and it is a somewhat innocuous-sounding term that puts lipstick on the pig: “growth work.” This is like an auto mechanic working on a routine oil change, who, during the inspection, finds the need for more expensive, time-consuming repairs. The Navy did not expect to discover additional maintenance needs once it entered the ship and began assessing and observing.

    and if this is on a ship on which they didn’t expect anything, imagine what’s going to happen with the Ford…

    The List of To-Dos Keeps Growing

    Workers may have found more extensive structural problems or bad wiring in the power system. The living quarters likely needed more upkeep than a coat of paint. Repairs such as this are often done for safety reasons, but they stretch out the maintenance period. The Navy also points to more systemic issues with the RCOH process and associated growth work. First, there are just not enough qualified shipbuilders to complete work on time. Shortages began during the pandemic—the loss of personnel due to quarantine was extensive. Many never returned to duty and took other jobs.

    Generation Z Does Not Want to Do Dirty Shipbuilding Jobs

    Young people are not choosing hazardous careers in the shipyards, and nuclear aircraft carriers require experienced, highly trained specialists. Many of these experts are retiring from the workforce and are not being replaced. The bottom line is that the Navy and shipyards require more electricians, welders, and nuclear engineers.

    grillman these genz snowflakes just don’t want to do real work anymore

    maybe try FUCKING PAYING PEOPLE A GOOD WAGE

    Domino Effect Hurts Long-Range Planning

    Another issue is long-range planning. Shipyards need a predictable timetable. Schedules are concocted years in advance, and a delay in the RCOH for one carrier has knock-on effects for other flat-tops. This increases the time in port and pushes schedules back. Shipyards are strained, and workers are running difficult schedules—sometimes it is not possible to meet deadlines set years earlier. Schedule slips are thus inevitable—and expensive.

    Sailors Can Suffer, Leading to Tragedies

    Delays and strained working conditions affect sailors. Navy personnel must assist the shipyard workers, but since the carrier is being overhauled, and many crew berths are being prepared, the quality of life for sailors may suffer. In 2022, several sailors committed suicide on the USS George Washington, which was in port for long repairs. This obviously had a tremendous negative effect on the carrier’s morale. The Navy, after an investigation, promised that sailors would have better living quarters, mental health care, and quality-of-life enhancements so that such incidents would never happen again. The Stennis RCOH required fewer sailors to participate in the work and live on the ship. The Navy also spent more on housing to boost morale and improve mental health.

    This Is a Large Transformation

    Meanwhile, the Stennis is undergoing a complete overhaul. The radar and sensor system is receiving upgrades. Workers have inspected old technologies and decided to implement time-consuming repairs. This requires testing and evaluation, as well as computer-aided work, which adds to the time required for the RCOH. Another aspect is the ship’s age. The Nimitz-class has been sailing for five decades. The lead ship, the USS Nimitz (CVN-68), is on its last cruise before retirement. An extended service life means spending much more time at port.

    Sea Trials and Testing Must Still Transpire

    Even when John C. Stennis’ RCOH is complete, it will need time for sea trials, testing, and evaluation. That means it could take until early 2027 before it is ready for a full-time combat deployment. Thus, the Navy is facing the reality that its carriers are not ready to go to sea. Some level of delay is understandable. These are aging ships, and mechanics and technicians need time to “look under the hood.” The Navy must also invest more in shipyard corporations to recruit and retain more skilled workers. Recruitment efforts should focus on high pay, benefits, and job stability. The John C. Stennis will do an excellent job when it is ready for full-time sea duty. I have high hopes for the crew, which is itching to get out to sea and help in the war against Iran. It will be a welcome addition to the fleet in the coming years, and the Navy can learn lessons from its delays to shorten time at port for other RCOHs. There needs to be a reckoning, and perhaps some government watchdogs should investigate the delays so they don’t happen to other carriers.

    • VComrade [he/him]@hexbear.net
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      13 days ago

      these genz snowflakes just don’t want to do real work anymore

      maybe try FUCKING PAYING PEOPLE A GOOD WAGE

      Also… They make it nearly impossible for young people to get the skills and reqs to qualify for these specialized positions and they don’t even offer the same benefits and job security their predecessors had for doing the same job. In my area, for example, these type of jobs are often “on call” or contract positions lasting between 3-6 months. The pay is good, but there’s just no long-term security for building a stable future.

      But entering the trades as an apprentice is brutal. You basically start as a slave.

      Long hours, extended periods of time away from home (for more specialized jobs) exhausting and brutal working conditions and being treated like shit by your seniors for barely more than minimum wage. Its no wonder most people try it out for 2-3 years then say fuck this and just go do “unskilled labor” jobs. Same pay with none of the baggage.

      They always cry about needing more trades people but refuse to change the toxic working culture surrounding the trades.