The 2026 disruption is structurally different from the 2022 Russia-Ukraine fertilizer crisis. In 2022, the shock was primarily cost-driven — gas prices rose, production became expensive, but product could still be rerouted. In 2026, the disruption is physical. There are no pipeline or land alternatives capable of moving bulk ammonia and urea volumes out of the Persian Gulf. The product is either there or it isn’t.
Yeah I saw him outlining this on a recent YouTube analysis program, and have to say, it’s so simple and clear, and chilling. Most conflict has economic or scarcity underpinnings, global food shortage can cause such upheaval it’s impossible to predict outcomes. I think there’s some academic work that correlates about of Arab spring to wheat shortages due to drought and regional conflict (largely cause by US destruction of Libya) and this pattern can be mapped to other conflicts. The only silver lining I see is that we waste so much food at the moment that perhaps there’s enough margin that we could stop wasting and still have enough food. But that will probably be cold comfort to global south where food is already efficiently consumed…
I fully expect to see an ongoing famine where I have to spend $20 a gallon on gas to drive 30 minutes to work to cook food and we will still be told that we’re allowed to take none home even if it is literally trash to be thrown away, and i will be told to be grateful to still have a job, especially one where I can eat a (1) whole meal “while folks in China starve” (with people starving down the street)
I know the writer of the article isn’t the subject matter expert, but he seems to put a LOT of faith in one man’s analysis of the situation.
Farmers are very much used to supply chain disruption and rolling with the punches. (Weather, fluctuating market prices, broken equipment, etc, etc.)
Many alternative fertilization methods exist. (Some might say better alternatives, since they can be domestically sourced.)
I think there’s some really good information here, but I’m not sure that the author fully supported his claim that a worldwide crop disaster is imminent. I guess we get to find out shortly, though!
