(credit to RomCom1989 for the title)

A reminder that as the US continues to threaten countries around the world, fedposting is to be very much avoided (even with qualifiers like “in Minecraft”) and comments containing it will be removed.

Image is of an Iranian soldier exulting in the launch of a ballistic missile aimed towards the imperialists.


short summary this week: US doing pretty bad and Iran doing pretty good all things considered, Strait of Hormuz is closed and will almost certainly remain so until the end of the war, Trump has no idea what to do, global economic crisis from strait closure is basically guaranteed at this point but who will ultimately benefit most and who will ultimately lose most is still up in the air.

longish summary is below in the spoiler tags

longish summary

While there are still major debates raging about how badly things are actually going right now and what the post-conflict map may look like, as we blaze past the two week mark on this conflict, it’s becoming ever more obvious to almost everybody involved that this war is not going according to plan, if there ever was one. US airstrikes are, from what I can best determine, still mostly done with relatively less powerful (but still very dangerous!) and much less plentiful standoff munitions launched from bombers, though certain border and coastal areas are being struck with more powerful and more plentiful short-range guided bombs. This indicates that Iranian air defense is still sufficiently functional throughout most of Iran that the kinds of true carpet bombing done against Korea and Vietnam in the past (and Gaza very recently) is still too risky, though their airspace is still very much under assault, as we appear to have images of small groups of Western fighters breaching relatively deep into the country. Under some kind of Iranian pressure (drones? missiles? speedboats?) one aircraft carrier has retreated to a thousand kilometers from Iran, hiding behind the mountains of Oman; the other is sitting in the Red Sea, rather pointedly out of range of Yemen. As such, the ranges that Western aircraft must travel to bombard Iran is increasing, which reduces their frequency and increases strain on maintenance and logistics in the medium and long term.

While there is tons to say about the current social, economic, and military state of Iran, I don’t think I have a reliable enough picture to give a good summary beyond “they aren’t close to defeat or regime change”. What has instead captured much of the world’s attention is the continuing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which has inspired some of the most delusional statements I have seen so far in my life, which is sincerely a profound achievement. For those out of the loop: the strait is currently closed to all shipping except those going to very particular countries (I’ve seen China and Bangladesh mentioned, and apparently India is in the process of working something out and may succeed or fail). This is because most ships are not risking the trip due to the ~20 tankers and container ships that Iran has already struck and disabled in the strait and in the Persian Gulf. Additionally, the threat from Iran’s military to Navy ships is such that attempting to create a convoy to guide tankers through it is suicidal to both the Navy and merchant ships. Right now it cannot be done, and it very well might be the case that it could never be done, simply due to the combination of Iran’s naval forces (hundreds, perhaps thousands, of armed, specialized speedboats designed for exactly this purpose), their drones (in the tens of thousands), their torpedoes, and if all else fails, their naval mines.

The Western reaction to this has been so moronic that it has almost integer underflowed into being philosophical: what does it truly mean for a passage to be “closed”? Has Iran truly “closed” the strait, or is the risk of traversing it simply too high for these cowardly sailors (who, for some strange reason, seem to care about their “lives” and “families”)? How is it possible for Iran to have closed the strait if, according to the West, Iran’s military has been totally obliterated? All these questions and more plague the minds of those who cannot accept the now-proven fact that there are indeed military forces on this planet that the US Navy with all its aircraft carriers and destroyers and submarines cannot defeat; and one of those minds is, rather hilariously, Trump himself. His thrice-daily positive affirmations that Iran has been defeated are taking on an increasingly deranged and almost pitiable tone; the lamentations of a man who has finally found a situation where him merely stating that something is true is insufficient to change the situation one iota. Despite stating that some kind of naval compact or alliance is being established to protect shipping, every Western country so far - from the UK, to France, to Japan, to Australia - has publicly stated that they will not risk their ships to do so. All this as the continued blockade yet further guarantees a worldwide energy, production, transportation, and food crisis that will have major global ramifications for at least the rest of the decade and almost certainly beyond.

If the anti-imperialists play their cards right, the US could lose much from this crisis, and others, like China and Russia, could gain a great deal. To quote Nia Frome (co-founder of Red Sails): “An effective Marxist has to be enough of an accelerationist/pervert to treat the obviously bad things that are going to happen as the political opportunities they are.”


Last week’s thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine

If you have evidence of Zionist crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on the Zionists’ destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


  • carpoftruth [any, any]@hexbear.net
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    3 days ago

    @Tervell@hexbear.net shared the best analysis of the material limits of the US military industrial complex I’ve seen since the newsmegas began in 2022.

    My commentary below, but I strongly encourage people to click through and read the article in full.

    spoiler

    The distinction between practically infinite JDAMs and the finite stand off weapons, antiair interceptors, and radar/detections arrays is sorely misunderstood. All of the finite weapons are what allow the US to do what they’re doing now with the current state of attrition. US bases in GCC countries are partially evacuated, there have been some fighter and tanker airframes down, both carrier strike groups are manageable threatened but active, and something like low hundreds of US casualties. This is more of an ass kicking than the US has gotten in a long time, but not terrible militarily when viewed in a vacuum.

    However, as what Trump calls the “exquisite” class of materiel is consumed, then maintaining a meaningful tempo of operations will require higher risk approaches: use of JDAMs over Tomahawks, which requires closer approach/flyover of Iranian territory increasing the odds of more F35s getting shot down. Bigger holes in anti air systems, meaning more damage to existing soldiers and military assets on the ground in the GCCs/Israel, also more attrition of any larger concentrations of forces that would have to consolidate for any future ground operations. More damage to the air tankers needed to fling fighters from the CSG off the coast of Oman to Tehran. Either the US will have to accept higher casualty rates and damage, or meaningfully slow down the pace of operations in a war of attritoon where Iranian state survival alone is a strategic victory.

    This attack on Iran has already blown years of what is functionally irreplaceable production in weeks. This war of choice is best a quagmire that will destroy large parts of the world economy, including America’s, and is at worst a strategic defeat that will make the replacement of the Taliban with the Taliban look dignified. All of the above looks even worse in the context of America’s medium term ability to do things in any other theatre, like supporting Ukraine or God forbid, fighting China. The opportunity cost is enormous.

  • glimmer_twin [he/him]@hexbear.net
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    7 hours ago

    Dude i can’t get over how stupid this kharg plan is. Like even if you take it, what do you gain? How will you get that oil out of the gulf??

  • Kieselguhr [none/use name]@hexbear.net
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    8 hours ago

    @iranin_arabic Translated from Arabic Urgent Alert Kuwait 🇰🇼 To the Allies of the United States In the event that the American enemy proceeds to target Iran’s energy infrastructure, this will lead to the ignition of a full map of targets in the region.
    ⚠️ Energy and electricity infrastructure
    ⚠️ Water desalination facilities
    Kuwait Al-Zour Water Desalination Complex
    Al-Zour North Power Station

    Seyed Mohammad Marandi @s_m_marandi · Everyone should leave the Persian Gulf region now. If Trump and Netanyahu strike, Iran’s retaliation will be unprecedented and massive.

  • QuillcrestFalconer [he/him]@hexbear.net
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    9 hours ago

    The UAE deserves to be sinked

    🇦🇪🚨NEW: UAE says ceasefire no longer a priority as focus shifts to confronting Iran

    🔸UAE Foreign Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Abdullah bin Zayed, a senior member of the ruling family and a central architect of the country’s foreign policy, wrote on X today that UAE “will never be blackmailed by terrorists,” referring to the attacks from Iran.

    🔸His comments come after Anwar Gargash, one of the UAE’s most influential foreign policy figures and diplomatic adviser to President Mohammed bin Zayed, stated that Abu Dhabi does not view an immediate ceasefire as the central objective, instead prioritizing “lasting security in the Arabian Gulf” in response to what he called “brutal Iranian aggression.”

    ➢ He said “our thinking does not stop at a ceasefire,” stressing the need to curb Iran’s nuclear program, missiles, drones, and control over the Strait of Hormuz.

    ➢ He said it is “inconceivable” to allow Iran to pose a “permanent state of threat” over the UAE and the Gulf.

    🔸Gargash said Iran’s response is cementing Iran as a “central axis” in Gulf strategic thinking, adding that it will result in the “bolstering of our national capabilities and joint Gulf security” and “solidifying our security partnerships with Washington.”

    https://xcancel.com/DropSiteNews/status/2035811144854630642#m

  • mkultrawide [any]@hexbear.net
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    8 hours ago

    Does anyone have details on what Ansar Allah has been doing during this war? I’ve heard a lot about Iran and Hezbollah, but I don’t think I’ve heard much about Ansar Allah. Opening or threatening to reopen the front in Yemen would likely change a lot of calculus for KSA and UAE and force them divide their resources, on top of NATO having split resources should they blockade the Bab Al-Mandab again.

  • Lovely_sombrero [he/him]@hexbear.net
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    10 hours ago

    Channel 12 revealed dramatic messages sent by the US administration to Israel, including the following key points: The timeline of the maneuver: The Americans informed Israel that the operational plans related to the Strait of Hormuz will take several weeks to implement, which necessarily means extending the war for additional weeks. Trump’s strategy: Reports indicate that President Trump’s direction does not lean towards rapid calming, but rather seeks to exploit the “oil and gas” file as a maximum pressure tool. Choking the Iranian regime: The American plan aims to turn the tables on Tehran; instead of using energy as an Iranian pressure card, Washington seeks to choke the regime from within through the energy sector, which may lead to accelerating its collapse. Summary of the situation: We are facing a shift in the American strategy from “containing escalation” to “economic and military settlement” through the gate of the Strait of Hormuz and energy resources.

    Trump on Iran: You’ll soon find out what will happen with the ultimatum on the power stations – the result will be very good. There will be a total destruction of Iran, and it’s going to work out great. Source: Israeli Channel 13

  • SovietCollie [none/use name]@hexbear.net
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    14 hours ago

    Enemy fighter jet operations over central Iran reduce sharply after F-35 strike

    Article

    Iranian air defense systems have successfully reduced military aggression by American and Israeli fighter jets in the central regions of the country after the F-35 aircraft was struck, a highly-placed intelligence source told Press TV.

    According to the source, Iran’s advanced and integrated air defense network has inflicted multiple blows against enemy invading aircraft, forcing a decrease in the tempo of operations over central Iran.

    “The multiple strikes by Iran’s integrated air defense system against American and Israeli invading aircraft have led to a significant reduction in military operations by American and Israeli fighter jets in the central regions of the country,” the source said.

    The source further noted that the enemy had focused on harassment and terrorist actions in central Iran but has so far failed to achieve its objectives.

    “After striking the F-35, the pace of military operations has decreased, although aircraft and drones are still being used for reconnaissance purposes,” he added.

    The intelligence source also revealed that the number of downed drones has reached nearly 200. Citing defensive innovations deployed against enemy aircraft, he said the rate of strikes against enemy warplanes is likely to increase in the coming days.

    “Given the defensive innovations against enemy aircraft, it appears that in the coming days, the rate of strikes against enemy warplanes will increase,” the source said.

    On March 19, the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) aerospace division struck the crown jewel of the US Air Force – the F-35 Lightning II stealth fighter – irrevocably reshaping the strategic calculus of the ongoing US-Israeli aggression, as per experts.

    For nearly two decades, the F-35 program stood as the pinnacle of American military dominance – a multi-trillion-dollar, fifth-generation platform designed to pierce the world’s most advanced air defenses with total impunity.

    That myth was shattered over the skies of central Iran, where the IRGC deployed the domestically built air defense system to expose vulnerabilities of the F-35 aircraft.

    As the aggression enters its fourth week, Iran’s integrated air defense network has not only endured the heaviest aerial bombardment but has systematically dismantled the technological arrogance of the US-Israeli war machine.

    Source

  • Tervell [he/him]@hexbear.net
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    14 hours ago

    I’ve mentioned the comparison to the Iraq wars a few times with regards to the potential for the US to deploy ground troops, so here’s an article going into some more detail https://ghostarchive.org/archive/VuAkz

    Iraq Was the Warm-Up: Iran Is the Trap

    The Logistical Nightmare Washington Cannot Ignore

    more

    The 2003 invasion of Iraq unfolded under logistical conditions so permissive they bordered on ideal: secure staging areas in Kuwait, rapid air dominance, and supply lines that flowed with minimal interference. Even then, the war proved long and costly. A campaign against Iran would enjoy none of those advantages. From the first hours, every regional port, airfield, and convoy would be vulnerable to missiles, drones, and proxy threats. Layered air defenses, mountainous chokepoints, and dispersed urban battles would turn sustainment into the decisive—and potentially decisive—constraint. Logistics that enabled maneuver in Iraq would become a grinding, attritional battle for survival in Iran. U.S. and coalition forces must fully account for these realities before committing boots to the ground: the ease of Iraq cannot be assumed, and under these conditions, failure to secure supply lines or maintain operational tempo could be catastrophic. In short, Iraq was the easy version. A ground campaign against Iran would be the real one: a prolonged, high-casualty sustainment fight in which the ability to keep forces supplied under constant attack would determine whether the operation could even continue.

    Logistics Then Versus Now

    Logistics would be the decisive constraint in any attempt to invade Iran. During the 2003 invasion of Iraq, U.S. forces operated under unusually favorable sustainment conditions. Secure staging areas in Kuwait and other regional partners provided established ports, airfields, and logistical infrastructure that enabled the rapid buildup of combat power before the ground offensive began. Fuel, ammunition, and reinforcements flowed through relatively secure ground lines of communication, allowing commanders to maintain operational momentum during the opening phase of the campaign. Coalition air forces also quickly degraded Iraqi air defenses and command networks, establishing dominance of the airspace and enabling persistent close air support, reconnaissance, and medical evacuation. The result was a logistical environment that allowed maneuver units to operate with comparatively reliable sustainment and very limited disruption.

    A Battlespace Without Sanctuary

    A campaign against Iran would begin under far less permissive conditions. Unlike Iraq in 2003, there are no comparable staging zones immune from immediate retaliation. Any regional bases, ports, or airfields used to support an invasion would likely fall within range of Iranian ballistic missiles and drones from the outset of hostilities. Supply lines would therefore begin the war exposed and contested rather than protected and predictable. The early assumption of uncontested airspace would also be far less certain. Iran fields layered air defense systems and long-range fires capable of threatening aircraft, forward operating bases, and aerial logistics hubs. Establishing reliable air superiority across a country of Iran’s size would take time, during which ground forces and supply convoys would operate under persistent risk.

    Advanced Missiles and Drones Put Logistics in the Crosshairs

    Precision fires and loitering munitions could transform the battlefield into a constant logistical crisis. Iran possesses a substantial ballistic missile inventory, including the Shahab, Emad, and Khorramshahr families, capable of striking regional bases, ports, airfields, and supply hubs that invading forces rely on. In addition, Iran fields advanced drones such as the Shahed attack series and Arash-2 loitering munitions, which can strike with precision, conduct extended surveillance, and coordinate with other systems to maximize effect. These capabilities extend Iran’s operational reach while simultaneously constraining an invader’s freedom of movement, complicating logistics, and exposing forces to persistent, unpredictable threats—forcing planners to account for attrition and disruption before combat even begins, a level of persistent threat that U.S. forces did not face in Iraq.

    Cheap Drones, Expensive Consequences

    On the modern battlefield, inexpensive drones have dramatically increased the speed and scale of lethal attacks, as seen in Ukraine. Unlike the improvised explosive devices (IEDs) used by insurgents in Iraq, which were manual, painstaking, and slow, requiring days of surveillance, digging, wiring, and observation, small drones can be cheaply deployed in large numbers almost immediately. They can surveil, guide artillery, or deliver explosive payloads directly against troops and supply convoys, dramatically increasing both the tempo and scale of attacks. Each strike carries the potential to inflict casualties, degrade morale, and disrupt supply chains, creating a persistent, multi-directional threat that invading forces in Iraq never faced and which fundamentally reshapes tactical planning in modern combat.

    Regional Escalation and Proxy Warfare

    The broader regional environment further complicates the logistical picture. Iran maintains established relationships with proxy forces and partner militias across the Middle East, including Hezbollah and numerous Shiite militias operating in Iraq. In the event of a major conflict, these groups could conduct coordinated attacks against supply lines, staging areas, and forward operating bases across the region. Such activity would expand the battlespace beyond Iran’s borders and force commanders to allocate combat power to protect logistics infrastructure rather than concentrate entirely on offensive operations.

    From Fallujah to Tehran: The Multicity Challenge

    Geography and population density further favor the defender. Iran has roughly twice the population of Iraq and nearly four times the territory. While Iraq’s population in 2003 was concentrated in a handful of key urban centers such as Baghdad, Basra, and Mosul, Iran’s population is distributed across multiple large metropolitan areas including Tehran, Mashhad, Isfahan, Shiraz, and Tabriz. Each represents a separate and complex urban battlespace filled with dense civilian populations, industrial zones, and extensive transportation networks. For an invading force, this fragmentation multiplies operational objectives while simultaneously complicating logistics and command coordination. Urban combat in Iran would likely exceed the intensity seen in battles such as the Second Battle of Fallujah or the Battle of Mosul. Operations of that scale could occur simultaneously across several major cities,

    unlimited Battles of Stalingrad upon the empire’s military

    forcing commanders to disperse forces while sustaining multiple urban campaigns at once, all while U.S. and coalition forces would potentially face advanced missiles, precision-guided drones, larger explosive warheads, and a lack of the secure rear-area logistics network they enjoyed in Iraq. Such operations are manpower intensive, logistically demanding, and historically associated with high casualty rates.

    The Iraq War Was the Easy Version

    Even under the relatively favorable conditions of Iraq, the war proved costly. Over the course of the conflict, the United States lost roughly 7,000 service members killed in action and tens of thousands wounded. Those losses came despite secure staging areas, less concentrated population centers, and permissive terrain—demonstrating that even optimal logistics and rear-area security cannot eliminate combat losses. Against Iran, those same advantages would not exist. Sustaining large ground forces across a far larger and more contested battlespace while under threat from missiles, drones, proxy attacks, and complex terrain would place extraordinary strain on logistics systems. Under such conditions, operational tempo would slow, supply networks would remain under constant pressure, and casualties would likely rise far higher than the U.S has seen in decades of war. From a logistics perspective, the invasion of Iraq increasingly appears to have been a best-case scenario. A ground campaign against Iran would almost certainly resemble the opposite: a prolonged, highly contested sustainment fight in which operational success depends less on maneuver speed and more on the ability to keep forces supplied under constant attack. A ground campaign against Iran would represent a far more severe test of American logistics: a grueling, high-casualty struggle for sustainment and endurance in which failing to keep forces supplied under constant fire could end the campaign before it ever truly begins. Policymakers must treat logistics not as an afterthought, but as the decisive constraint—before any decision to commit boots on the ground.

  • QuillcrestFalconer [he/him]@hexbear.net
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    17 hours ago

    In unsurprising news, Japan is completely cucked

    🔹 Japan declines negotiations Iran’s offer of Hormuz access for “neutral” nations

    But Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi said Sunday morning that Japan is not considering unilateral negotiations with Iran for exclusive access, and will instead coordinate with the U.S. and European allies on maritime security.

    https://xcancel.com/DropSiteNews/status/2035590894565445754#m