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Cake day: August 3rd, 2022

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  • I am struggling with this problem too. My main strategy is to start by questioning the basic belief that Russia aims to go to war and conquer Europe. There is no material basis to believe that this is something Russia wants to do, plans to do, or can do. To achieve this you also need to persuade the person that in the war in Ukraine Russia is acting in response to American/atlanticist provocation. This means distinguishing between the military aggression of Russia with its defensive strategy. If you persuade the person of this, then they need to find a new explanation why the EU wants to increase arm productions. If a defensive war with Russia is not imminent then why do they want to spend money for war?

    I think the main problem in addressing this issue and answering this question is acknowledging the content of actually existing imperialism as it is shaped today. This is the biggest hurdle that western leftists have to go through in developing as leftists and Marxists. The person/friend needs to acknowledge that the present state of things is that the “west” has set up a concrete world order such that it (primarily its capitalist class) exploits the rest of humanity, but right now this capitalist class is worried this arrangement is weakening. Imperialism is not an abstraction (that the west but also China and Russia engage in) but a concrete reality. When western leaders (be it Europeans, or Americans) talk about “beating” or “defeating” China or Russia, this should not be understood as winning a competition among equals (whether in the battlefield or in the markets) but as beating back to submission subordinate people who dare to raise their head. This is very difficult to convince people in the west, because the real content of western propaganda is to convince them exactly of the opposite, that Putin/Xi are aggressive, dangerous, dictators and not politicians who simply try to improve the position of concrete classes in their societies (and this is where the discussions on free speech, citizens rights, LGBTQ+/minority rights are used as instruments of imperialism). Just so happens today I saw this article from Jason Hickel that is on this theme especially about China. If they are convinced of this, then you need to persuade them that China/Russia not only never claim that they wants to take the role the west has today, but they simply cannot for concrete material reasons.

    This is my experience with your problem. Many of the readings suggested in this thread are excellent and useful and engage in the things my answer is summarizing.









  • Can you explain to me your disappointment? To me, at least for now, this seems like a neutral or slightly positive outcome given the last few weeks. Isreal (in agreement with the USA) tried to perform a surprise decapitating strike to Iran hoping to lead to regime change. Iran was able to absorb and consolidate and responded by bombing Israel. Iran didn’t attack Israel to stop the genocide but only to defend its sovereignty. I understand for people to wish that Iran continues to bomb Israel until the genocide stops, but this was not the reason they started bombing to begin with.

    Of course the final analysis depends on what happens to Iran’s nuclear program, and what will happen to the resistance in the future but a stop in the aggression between Iran and Israel doesn’t give us information about this. For now, Iran managed to withstand an attempt to overthrow its government, and persuaded the USA not to start a bombing campaign of its own.

    I understand that you are from the region, have family there, and I would genuinely like to understand your perspective here.




  • Harris would have pulled the trigger with 0 hesitation. Once October 7 happened, the war with Iran was already extremely likely and with how things developed it was becoming certain. Harris said in her campaign that Iran is the greatest adversary of the USA and that “preventing Iran form acquiring a nuclear weapon” was her “top priority”. Trump is senile so the people actually in power (led by Rubio probably here, very much like Blinken was with Biden) have to coax him to press the button. The foreign policy of the American empire, especially when it comes to matters of war, is not affected by whatever clown they put at the head. Democrats and Republics are in perfect unison. Schumer was the one who castigated Trump on being too soft to Iran.




  • The news mega in Hexbear is not going to persuade Xi Jinping to change his course of action no matter how many times we complain. As I said I also get frustrated with China sometimes, and I express it but from a point onward this becomes counterproductive. I am not saying to have faith. I am saying we should do what we can, with what resources we have, to push things to the direction we think is best (and I am saying the Chinese are probably doing the same). This doesn’t mean that we should not be critical of the CPC or that we should not try to work with comrades around the world (and in China) and cooperate. But I think dooming about an ongoing struggle to this degree is counter-productive.


  • I also feel many times frustrated with the way China chooses to conduct itself, and that it could lead to its own demise. I have two criticisms: Sometimes I feel (also for myself) that part of the western left, in order to overcome emotionally how bad things are for the left at home, use the CPC as psychotherapy, projecting to it expectations and hopes that are unreasonable. China is not going to save us from the upcoming fascism at home, regardless. This is on us. Secondly, I doubt that the government of China is completely blind to something we can see as possibilities. I think the Chinese also understand that the trajectory of the USA leads to a hot war with China. Maybe they are preparing in a way they see fit. Maybe they have wishful thinking that it can be avoided. History will judge the CPC with how their fight against fascism goes, but for now it’s still ongoing.


  • To all the doomerism especially regarding the involvement of China and Russia:

    The USSR had a non-aggression pact with Nazi Germany and only officially started fighting the Wermarcht when operation Barbarossa began. Stalin almost entirely refused to provide any help to Korea and said he was prepared for the peninsula to be occupied by the US. Soviet soldiers didn’t fight in Vietnam, soviet soldiers didn’t fight in Angola, soviet soldiers didn’t fight in Cuba. I understand that it is difficult and frustrating to see the escalation against Iran and the inaction from Russia and China while we feel powerless in this conflict, but the doom and gloom in this space is not helping anyone.

    Speaking of hesitation, the US waited 15 years of sanctions against Syria to get their win, with many hesitations and flip-flops (Obama first considered treating Syria like Libya but then changed his mind). The same applies to Iran. The sanctions, isolation, and infiltration goes back for decades. This bizarre idea that “we need to be bold like the fascists” is disconnected from reality. Stop idealizing the fascists as omnipotent and omniscient. The USA is at its weakest position since at least 100 years.

    Putin is not an anti-imperialist hero, history dragged him in this camp, he is simply in this coalition because of his own interests. China is a country that would prefer their people live in peace and prosperity and not get dragged into a hot war that could literally kill hundreds of millions of them. Especially for people in the west: Neither China nor Russia are here to fix the western left’s failures. It’s western governments funding the genocidal fascist regime. What are we doing here to stop that?

    History will not end until humanity ends, the high capital experienced from the “end of history” and the “victory” against communism, a struggle that capital, imperialism, and fascism fought while at its peak for 70 long years with endless genocide and destruction, didn’t even last 20 years as the 2008 crisis already started the struggle that is reaching a violent peak today. Humans will continue to fight, against setbacks or from positions of strength.

    We should do what we can however insignificant to help in this struggle and be ready to fight for our side.