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Joined 10 months ago
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Cake day: October 7th, 2024

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  • All that big talk about forcing countries to negotiate

    Trump indeed touts tariffs as international leverage, but they are just as much if not more of a domestic power play that forces US businesses to kiss the ring in order to get exemptions. Businesses that pledge allegiance keep their supply chains and survive, whereas those that don’t satisfy the Mango get to pay tariffs and compete with exempted businesses in a weakening consumer market with decreasing purchasing power.











  • On the one hand, I share your doubt, which is justified in the face of all the deceit and mismanagement that Merz in particular and the CDU and CSU in general engage in and their disdain for the public good. On the other hand, the fact that the Sovereign Tech Fund / Agency survived the German budget crisis gives me some hope that it will at least stay.



  • This is due to a few people in power, not because of tsunamis etc. So this can switch over in just a day.

    In my view, the damage is very real and businesses will keep suffering even if Trump winds down his tariff ambitions, because the uncertainty and unpredictability hinder investment decisions. For example, if you managed an aluminium business like Alcoa, would you put up the cash to set up new smelters in the US despite melting stock prices, high borrowing costs and the possibility that the tariffs shielding those US smelters from foreign producers are reduced or even scrapped altogether without warning? Many businesses are “damned if they do, damned if they don’t”.

    I’m sure there are smart plays in this market, but I’m also convinced that we’ve entered a bear phase.