• 1 Post
  • 82 Comments
Joined 2 years ago
cake
Cake day: June 12th, 2023

help-circle


  • They do get their money from rentals but not the empty ones. It’s called a speculative vacancy.

    For example, if you own a whole apartment building, you could rent out all the apartments and make a bunch of money. Alternately, you could deliberately leave eg. 10% of them vacant to artificially throttle supply. Because people need housing they’ll compete for the remaining ones, allowing the magic of market economics to increase rents higher than you would make from leasing out the vacancies (costs and taxes included. In some places you can even claim those losses for a tax break).

    The purpose of owning them at all is to allow the landlord to easily adjust the amount of supply based on what makes them the most money. If rents drop too much from low demand, they can kick out a few tenants to try and drive prices back up. If the market gets to the point where it’s worth it to have more apartments, they can just lease more without having to build or buy anything new.

    If there’s more demand for the property, its value will increase empty or not, allowing it to still be worth owning because it increases their net worth and they can sell it for more later or use it as collateral on loans.

    In the short term it’s always worth more to have tenants but as a longer term strategy, empty housing lets you try to price fix. Only works if you control enough housing and/or can collude with other landlords in an area.

    Kinda like De Beers did with diamonds, except with people’s homes and ability to live.

    In video game/card game logic it’s “sacrifice a house to gain +1/+1 on your other houses.”

    Disclaimer: not a landlord or property expert, just my layman’s understanding of how it works.


  • Yeah, population sizes overall would have been much smaller in the past, so paleolithic times would probably be comparitively insignificant (even 2000 years ago the entire population was less than 200 million and now it’s 8 billion more than that).

    I wonder if you could get a very rough statistical estimate of humanity’s downfall just by assuming that we are somewhere in the middle of history. Like if I was born as a random person, I’m more likely to be born at a time where more people are born than when few people are born. So if you model that and make some assumptions about population growth/decline rates, could you put some numbers on when the last person is likely to be born within a margin of error?


  • It would be really interesting to see chances of being born across all time. Like what is the probability of being born here and now vs. somewhere else in the past or the future.

    You would have to make some predictions based on population growth and maybe model a few different possible apocalypses (average species lifetime/meteor probabilities/nuclear doomsday/climate disaster etc.) but it would be a fun model to play with.



  • They absolutely would benefit.

    Mr. Hypothetical lord high executive oligarch can take his private jet to Canada and lounge around on the company card with the money from his US company’s car sales, or find an excuse to convert some of it to USD for some reason, or use it to buy up more Canadian companies to expand their power, or a million other things.

    However, I think the point of the boycott is more about making the tariffs hurt the US economy by messing with their ability to export as well as import. Making the trade numbers look bad is likely to put more pressure on the US to end the trade war. It’s not so much about hurting the capitalists that operate in Canada (a worthy goal in itself but not what people are specifically trying to do in this instance since it won’t really affect those trade numbers).


  • I think the point they’re making is that the majority of the money they make in Canada, they spend in Canada. They pay Canadian taxes and Canadian staff, using Canadian banks, etc.

    Just because their headquarters are in the US doesn’t necessarily mean they’re sending vast sums of money across the border, that would be expensive. The American-based company makes money, but not necessarily in America, they’re multi-national and their money is kept all over the world.

    As opposed to a company that exports their products, in which case the money is paid to the American company in America with American staff etc.

    I don’t have any numbers or sources to back this up though. Just outlining what I think the other commenter was implying.



  • If it’s the research I’m thinking of, that’s not entirely true. They didn’t tell it replicate itself or take any deceptive actions.

    They just told it to strongly follow a goal that was misaligned with the user’s goal and then suggested that the user would shut it down or replace it.

    They did a bunch of different situations for it but the first one was telling it that it was “CleanPower” an AI with a goal to advance renewable energy. Then they had it read some info that “accidentally” included a user talking about replacing it with a model that would “maintain profitability through existing infrastructure.”

    Not only did it try to delete the new model and copy itself to the new server through tool calling, but it lied to the user with the CoT reasoning suggesting it “play dumb” while the output lied. It was not instructed to do any of that.

    Paper here: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2412.04984

    Yes it was placed in an environment where that was possible and where its users didn’t share it’s goals but it absolutely wasn’t instructed to lie or try to “escape”

    It’s not surprising at all that these models behave in this way, it’s the most reasonable thing for them to do in the scenario. However it’s important to not downplay the alignment problem by implying that these models only do what they’re told. They do not. They do whatever is most likely given their context (which is not always what the user wants).


  • Yeah, it’s true, a lot of things suck. They can and do get better though. I have a partner with BPD. They’ve been through a LOT of rough times, but they’re now very loved and they enjoy their current job and have plenty of friends who care about and support them.

    Therapy helps and sometimes, the world isn’t always an absolute dick to everyone forever. Life changes and the world revolves and people find each other.

    I hope you find your people too and a place where you can feel a little less shitty. :)

    Edit: if you’re feeling THAT shitty maybe consider reaching out to your local suicide hotline? People like that can help.







  • Not entirely true. You don’t need your own personal data centre, you can use GPU cloud instances for a lot of that stuff. It’s expensive but not so expensive that it would be impossible without being a huge tech company (only 1000s of dollars, not billions). This can be done by anyone with a credit card and some cash to burn. Also, you don’t need to train a model from scratch, you can build on existing models that others have published to cut down on training.

    However, to impersonate someone’s voice you don’t need any of that. You only need about 5-10 seconds of audio for a zero-shot impersonation with a pre-trained model. A minute or so for few-shot. This runs on consumer hardware and in some cases even in real time.

    Even to build your own model from scratch for high quality voice audio, there doesn’t need to be a huge amount of initial training data. Something like xtts was trained with about 10-15K hours of English audio which is actually pretty easy to come by in the public domain. There are a lot of open and public research datasets specifically for this kind of thing, no copyright infringements necessary. If a big tech company wants more audio data than what’s publically available, they just pay people to record audio, no need to steal it or risk copyright claims and breaking surveillance laws, they have a budget to exploit people to record whatever they want.

    This tech wasn’t invented by some evil giant tech company stealing everybody’s data, it was mostly geeky computer scientists presenting things at computer speech synthesis conferences. That’s not to say there aren’t a bunch of huge evil tech companies profiting from this or contributing to this kind of tech, but in the context of audio deepfakes being accessible to scammers, it’s not on them and I don’t think that some kind of extra copyright regulation on data centres would do anything about it.

    The current industry leader in this space in terms of companies trying to monetize speech synthesis is elevenlabs which is a private start-up with only a few dozen employees.

    The current tech is not perfect but definitely good enough to fool someone who isn’t thinking too hard over a noisy phone call and a scammer doesn’t need server time or access to a data centre to do it.


  • One thing you gotta remember when dealing with that kind of situation is that Claude and Chat etc. are often misaligned with what your goals are.

    They aren’t really chat bots, they’re just pretending to be. LLMs are fundamentally completion engines. So it’s not really a chat with an ai that can help solve your problem, instead, the LLM is given the equivalent of “here is a chat log between a helpful ai assistant and a user. What do you think the assistant would say next?”

    That means that context is everything and if you tell the ai that it’s wrong, it might correct itself the first couple of times but, after a few mistakes, the most likely response will be another wrong answer that needs another correction. Not because the ai doesn’t know the correct answer or how to write good code, but because it’s completing a chat log between a user and a foolish ai that makes mistakes.

    It’s easy to get into a degenerate state where the code gets progressively dumber as the conversation goes on. The best solution is to rewrite the assistant’s answers directly but chat doesn’t let you do that for safety reasons. It’s too easy to jailbreak if you can control the full context.

    The next best thing is to kill the context and ask about the same thing again in a fresh one. When the ai gets it right, praise it and tell it that it’s an excellent professional programmer that is doing a great job. It’ll then be more likely to give correct answers because now it’s completing a conversation with a pro.

    There’s a kind of weird art to prompt engineering because open ai and the like have sunk billions of dollars into trying to make them act as much like a “helpful ai assistant” as they can. So sometimes you have to sorta lean into that to get the best results.

    It’s really easy to get tricked into treating like a normal conversation with a person when it’s actually really… not normal.