• ZombiFrancis@sh.itjust.works
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    14 hours ago

    One thing we should understand by now is that opinion polling, especially hypothetical choices, does not measure voting likelihood.

  • farmgineer@nord.pub
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    14 hours ago

    There are ~2.25 years until we vote on the next president. So much can happen in the interim. What value do polls like this even have to anyone not directly on the entrants’ teams?

  • DarkFuture@lemmy.world
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    15 hours ago

    But the internet told me AOC was a shoe in. Just like it told me Bernie would be president.

    Buttigieg is a gay guy and hasn’t been in the news cycle and he’s still polling better. At least in this poll.

    Temper your expectations AOC fans. I don’t want you guys crashing out like Bernie Bros are still doing to this day.

  • Bristlecone@lemmy.world
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    2 days ago

    It’s like we’ve learned fucking nothing. Racist fucking morons are always gonna find a reason they were never wrong and then make the same stupid fucking decisions all over again

  • Zedstrian@sopuli.xyz
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    2 days ago

    The fact that 44% of voters are glad to elect another Republican regardless of the Democratic opposition after how much of Project 2025 has been enacted already demonstrates that even in 50 years the U.S. probably won’t be as liberal as the EU is now.

    • SciencyScientist@lemmy.world
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      2 days ago

      I don’t know if you can say the EU is liberal. The liberal EPP only holds 182 out of 720 seats in the European Parliament, for example. It seems in the US the term liberal is often used to indicate leftwing as well, but on (most of) the European political spectrum liberals are solidly rightwing and often fairly conservative on top of that.

      • Zedstrian@sopuli.xyz
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        2 days ago

        ‘Liberal’ in general U.S. political usage is a catch-all term for the left; when being more specific, one can also distinguish ‘Progressive’ as being those further to the left.

        My point was that many of the goals of democratic socialism in the U.S. are policies that are already widespread in the EU.

        • stormeuh@lemmy.world
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          1 day ago

          Widespread but being dismantled as we speak.

          While the general public is not as indoctrinated to hate socialism as in the US, they are still (being made) resistant to preserving or expanding the welfare state. Every time cuts are made to social programmes, (conservative) people will say “we should be grateful with what we get” and “well we can’t afford to keep paying for that”, especially if it’s cuts in another country that “has it better”. The media are an active and gleeful participant in this, constantly running stories about “OMG we are running a deficit” and “how are we going to afford to pay for pensions?”, manufacturing consent all the way. Finally, the EU and ECB also play their role as boogeymen by reprimanding states who run deficits, which national politicians then use as an excuse to cut social spending, instead of cutting military spending or taxing the wealthy.

        • Valmond@lemmy.dbzer0.com
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          1 day ago

          This is so stupid, if anything the whole “freedom” thing is liberal, and leftist is more state control so “less liberal”.

          Gotta muddy the waters eh.

    • professor_prime@lemmychan.org
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      2 days ago

      It’s when happens when both sides promote a culture war over a class war.

      Establishment democrats don’t care about the working class, but they won’t shut up about coming for our guns.

      • Zedstrian@sopuli.xyz
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        2 days ago

        117 people are killed on average by firearms in the U.S. every day; preventing as many of those deaths as possible is a worthwhile goal.

        Just as the electoral college is trapping the U.S. in a two-party system, the second amendment has resulted in countless preventable deaths that don’t occur in other first world countries.

        • professor_prime@lemmychan.org
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          1 day ago

          The best way to prevent such violence is to reduce the disparity in wealth.

          You are playing right into the hands of both sides by distracting from the root of the problem.

          • Zedstrian@sopuli.xyz
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            1 day ago

            If wealth disparity were the chief cause, one would expect to see a far greater incidence of violent gun deaths internationally.

            The fact that the top 15 (for 2022 data) are all in Central or South America indicates that weapons trafficked from the United States lead to higher rates of firearm homicide in neighboring countries. That factor aside, other countries with relatively high firearm homicide rates such as Canada and Sweden also have relatively liberal gun laws compared to other first-world countries.

            There is a significant correlation between firearm ownership and firearm homicides; the U.S. with many guns has a high rate while Japan with almost none has an extremely low rate, even compared to countries with comparable inequality to it.

            • professor_prime@lemmychan.org
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              1 day ago

              So wait a minute, you’re telling me that poor nations are killing each other at a higher rate than wealthy ones?

              No way. It’s almost like you’re proving me right and that focusing on gridlock issues is a distraction from the root of the problem.

              Also, you focus solely on “firearm homicide rates” instead of “homicide rates” because you know focusing on the latter would be admitting you’re wrong. It’s why you failed to mention that Japan has lower homicide rates overall even compared to nations with a comparable amount of guns.

              You just reaffirmed my position that both sides, democrats included, are braindead cattle focusing on a culture war instead of a class war.

              Keep being part of the problem.

    • hovercat@lemmy.blahaj.zone
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      2 days ago

      It’s also worth nothing that the number of people willing to identify as Republican has been dropping precipitously. I’d like to see the same poll, but with Independents added in the mix.

    • Kodama@feddit.org
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      1 day ago

      Here in germany we have “Sonntagsumfrage”. They ask 1,000 people for which party they would vote for, if next Sunday would be the next election.

      On election day one party got 10% more votes then the poll suggested. I would never trust such polls ever again.

  • huppakee@lemmy.world
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    2 days ago

    Nice poll, but doesn’t mean a thing. Right now i am willing to bet a large amount of money Trump will be the only Republican running for president.

    • adhocfungus@midwest.social
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      2 days ago

      Yeah, I was gonna ask why Trump isn’t on here. The only way he’s not running is if he croaks before the election. “But that’s illegal” is very clearly not a concern for our government officials anymore. “Who’s going to arrest me?” is all that matters now.

      • Ech@lemmy.ca
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        2 days ago

        That might be true, but running polls about it only legitimizes the idea.

        Also, if that ends up being the case, there’s really no point pretending anyone else has a shot.

    • brucethemoose@lemmy.world
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      2 days ago

      I think even he knows he is too old. Vance is clearly being set up to run.

      Trump will play kingmaker until Vance’s backers are done using Trump, I think.

  • professor_prime@lemmychan.org
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    2 days ago

    Why are the democrats so fucking stupid? If they nominate any of those candidates besides AOC, I will be voting republican just to spite them.

    I’m tired of their bullshit.

  • brucethemoose@lemmy.world
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    2 days ago

    Influence during actual elections will change this dramatically, once all their names get out and dirt flies.

    I dont know how it will change, but I do know most Americans probably have superficial knowledge of all of them. History shows they’ll vote on whatevers in their social media feed, not what they know now.