Image is an illustration that I have made to show what each side means when they say that Hormuz is “open” or “closed”, as various officials and analysts have created a lot of confusion with their statements, both intentionally and unintentionally.
I’m tentatively going back to the weekly thread format in the hopes that even if/when the conflict resumes, daily comment counts will keep us at or below ~3000 per week. If not, we’ll just go back to the 3000 comment threshold being what triggers a new thread being created.
The events of the last two weeks have been the most unintelligible of at least the last four years, and on some days I took one look at the situation and decided to just not even bother and do something else until the next day.
To attempt to summarize:
long summary
Against many people’s expectations, including my own, the ceasefire was not immediately scuttled upon its inception despite violations (predominantly against Lebanon), which indicates to me that both the US and Iran wanted a ceasefire more than they wanted to continue firing, at least for two weeks. For both sides, it represented an opportunity to reorganize, rebuild, and restrategize going forward.
The US has continued its rapid flurry of airlifting to and from the Middle East, and while what exactly they have brought and intend to do next is a mystery, airlifting is a very inefficient method of transferring resources en masse, meaning that any kind of massive ground invasion is still many months away (though I still strongly doubt it’ll ever happen). Attempting to do more raids like the failed Istafan raid seems like the most likely option, as well as perhaps some disastrous attempts to hold Gulf islands.
Meanwhile, Iran has been excavating the entrances to their missile cities and has rapidly rebuilt bridges and railway lines. While the rate of reconstruction has shocked some observers, people like us who have paid abnormally high attention to the Ukraine War will not be surprised - infrastructure is very difficult to take out for any meaningful length of time even when it’s not purposefully decentralized. It also seems extremely likely that Iran has continued to receive shipments of resources and weapons from Russia and China, though what exactly is being supplied is not concretely known.
Iran sent a highly qualified team to Pakistan to negotiate, and the US sent, among others, Vice President Vance too. After a marathon ~20 hour session, no deal was struck, and both sides left Pakistan (the Iranian team taking many precautions to not get shot down). While the nuclear issue seemed to be the major sticking point, it is very difficult to see the US - and Trump in particular - formally agreeing to a tollbooth in Hormuz or the retreat from their Middle Eastern bases even if they have already effectively retreated from most of them.
These negotiations took place in an environment of constant violations of the ceasefire on the Lebanon front. Iran initially tied their attendance of talks to a total cessation of conflict in Lebanon, though ultimately decided to go to Islamabad without a de facto ceasefire but with some sort of guarantee that we’ll go tell Netanyahu to stop firing for a while. A few days after the negotiations failed, a more comprehensive ceasefire was actually achieved in Lebanon. It’s still a Zionist Ceasefire (“you cease fire, we keep attacking”), and the Zionists committed several massive civilian atrocities just before the ceasefire began. After the ceasefire began, violations have, to my knowledge, been remarkably few up to the time of me writing this.
Shortly after the failure of negotiations, the US began their own blockade of Iran’s ports. As the US Navy cannot get within a few hundred miles of even the entrance of the Strait of Hormuz, the blockade is taking place at some line in the Sea of Oman, where Iranian ships will be intercepted. The confusion caused by this situation has been incredible, with a few days of people tracking Iranian tankers closely, concluding that if they had crossed the Strait of Hormuz, they had successfully ran the blockade (they had not). After about a week of this de jure blockade, it was indeed confirmed to be real when the US captured its first Iranian oil tanker. This prompted Iran to fully close the Strait of Hormuz (see the megathread image), and there are reports of, as always, at best questionable veracity that in response to the US’s blockade of their blockade, Iran possibly intends to 1) totally blockade Gulf State ports in the Persian Gulf of any kind, not just oil, and/or 2) talk to their ally Ansarallah and have them blockade the Red Sea (and they seem keen to do so in support of the Resistance).
Additionally, Iran has made the end of the US blockade the precondition to enter into new negotiations. The short term and even medium term effect of the US blockade will be minimal - China has a colossal strategic petroleum reserve which will last them several months even with their economy at full steam even assuming all Middle Eastern imports are cut off overnight, and Iran itself is not wholly reliant on oil exports for basic survival like other oil states (though it’ll certainly hurt the economy if prolonged). There are also certain ways that the blockade can be subverted, like potentially some advanced shadow fleet tactics with the cooperation of allied countries, or, in the long term, the construction of overland oil transportation routes (a significant railway route was constructed in the last few years between Iran and China).
Last week’s thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
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The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on the Zionists’ destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
I’m making things up? lol, not only did I not say any of that, I’m not even talking about Venezuela. I am talking about the entire trend of screeching “doooooooooomer!” every time someone is justifiably worried about something that happened or has any concern about a choice made by a member of the resistance. It’s not just about Venezuela, it happened with the ceasefire, it happens literally anytime anyone questions the most optimistic possible interpretation of how the struggle against imperialism and the Great Satan is unfolding. There is a cohort of commenters here, you included apparently, constantly using the smug emoji and insulting comrades as “ultras” (without even knowing what that means), whenever someone disagrees with the Iranian/Venezuelan/X-anti-Imperialist-group’s leadership can do no wrong and always makes the right moves mode of “analysis.”
What “claims” do you want me to source? Just do a search of the news comm for the term “ultra” and sort by new. Go look at any interaction you’ve had with InexplicableLunch or how about this one with @Leegh@hexbear.net vs others in the Rose-colored-glasses “dissent is doomer” brigade. I commented then as well, one of the many times I was exasperated by the insulting language and behavior so inappropriately used against comrades making valid points, but one of the few times I spoke up about it.
spoiler
For anyone who doesn’t want to click through, this is what I said to Leegh at the time. The top part being quoted was part of her response to someone else that I was referencing:
There are a number of loud commenters here who do think exactly that. And anyone who questions the wisdom of some of the choices made by the IRGC is just a “doomer ultraleftist.” They think the only analysis that has any legitimacy is analysis that assumes it as a foregone conclusion that Iran knows with omniscient power what the best course of action is. If you disagree, you’re just a fool western armchair general, and you have to be over there literally fighting if you want to have any ground to disagree. Nearly everything they say about “doomers” could be said just as reasonably about them, but applied to their non-materialist rose colored glasses regarding their belief that anti-imperialist states are incapable of mistakes or bad tactical decisions.
I almost exclusively lurk rather than comment, but I don’t know why much of the rest of the newsmega seems to go along with it so easily. It’s a shame because on several broader issues, I tend to agree with them more than the one or two bold commenters here who are willing to put up with their petty name-calling and try to engage with them and argue against their Panglossian commentary. The constant “you’re just a doomer” and “you have no valid concerns or thoughts because you are just a lib/ultraleftist westerner” is beyond off-putting and it makes it harder for me to take the rest of their analysis seriously. For all their complaints of how much “doomerism” there supposedly is here, it’s their own pettiness that really drags down the quality of discussion and analysis in the newsmega. It’s all the more ironic when someone posts a comment they they don’t like (which is anything slightly critical of any of the choices Iran has made) and they pull out the “what, you think you know any better you weak minded westerner?” line, because it’s practically certain that there are elements within the Iranian leadership structure that have similar concerns and probably disagreed with a number of the decisions that were ultimately made.
There is plenty more I could say, but I feel like what’s the point when a top level comment getting scores of upvotes is equating a number of people here with literal Zionists just because they have discussed fears that Iran’s agreement to the ceasefire may have been miscalculation.
As far as Venezuela, I don’t know all the details and I never claimed otherwise. But what I do see, including from everything I’ve read here (from “doomers” and the panglossian posse alike) is that under Maduro there was hard opposition to the US and imperialism. Now since the fascist’s kidnapping of Maduro, Venezuela is opening up in significant ways which is deeply concerning to me, meanwhile Delcy Rodriguez is tweeting her sympathies and well wishes to all the fascists at the Correspondent’s Dinner. On the surface all of this looks very bad, and if you want to make a materialist argument that it’s not, and it’s all part of the anti-imperialist plan then fine, do that. If you do, it’s hard to make out when every other sentence is filled with this petty jeering at the “doomers” who are in general if not in every specific case, making much more rational and genuinely materialist arguments.
You were lauding a person for the way they interact here and framed it as if they are just having reasonable level headed takes. the first section you quoted from my comment is me paraphrasing what that person’s take was.
I wasn’t accusing you of saying it, although you are in some ways cosigning it by praising this person.
The next section you quoted is again referencing the behavior of the person you were thanking, who certainly hasn’t provided sources to me when I asked directly, not sure what you are trying to get it by saying looking there will provide them. I wasn’t saying you needed to source anything.
As to the rest of it, I really don’t feel like I need to be charitable, respectful, or kind to people who enter leftist spaces and essentially do the work of the enemy. Most of my comment history is not insulting anyone, calling anyone a doomer, or an ultra, or otherwise. It is very specific people who make it a point to push these ideological lines that I call out and will continue to do so. I have spent plenty of time doing it without insulting anyone but sometimes I might and I’m okay with that