Image is an illustration that I have made to show what each side means when they say that Hormuz is “open” or “closed”, as various officials and analysts have created a lot of confusion with their statements, both intentionally and unintentionally.
I’m tentatively going back to the weekly thread format in the hopes that even if/when the conflict resumes, daily comment counts will keep us at or below ~3000 per week. If not, we’ll just go back to the 3000 comment threshold being what triggers a new thread being created.
The events of the last two weeks have been the most unintelligible of at least the last four years, and on some days I took one look at the situation and decided to just not even bother and do something else until the next day.
To attempt to summarize:
long summary
Against many people’s expectations, including my own, the ceasefire was not immediately scuttled upon its inception despite violations (predominantly against Lebanon), which indicates to me that both the US and Iran wanted a ceasefire more than they wanted to continue firing, at least for two weeks. For both sides, it represented an opportunity to reorganize, rebuild, and restrategize going forward.
The US has continued its rapid flurry of airlifting to and from the Middle East, and while what exactly they have brought and intend to do next is a mystery, airlifting is a very inefficient method of transferring resources en masse, meaning that any kind of massive ground invasion is still many months away (though I still strongly doubt it’ll ever happen). Attempting to do more raids like the failed Istafan raid seems like the most likely option, as well as perhaps some disastrous attempts to hold Gulf islands.
Meanwhile, Iran has been excavating the entrances to their missile cities and has rapidly rebuilt bridges and railway lines. While the rate of reconstruction has shocked some observers, people like us who have paid abnormally high attention to the Ukraine War will not be surprised - infrastructure is very difficult to take out for any meaningful length of time even when it’s not purposefully decentralized. It also seems extremely likely that Iran has continued to receive shipments of resources and weapons from Russia and China, though what exactly is being supplied is not concretely known.
Iran sent a highly qualified team to Pakistan to negotiate, and the US sent, among others, Vice President Vance too. After a marathon ~20 hour session, no deal was struck, and both sides left Pakistan (the Iranian team taking many precautions to not get shot down). While the nuclear issue seemed to be the major sticking point, it is very difficult to see the US - and Trump in particular - formally agreeing to a tollbooth in Hormuz or the retreat from their Middle Eastern bases even if they have already effectively retreated from most of them.
These negotiations took place in an environment of constant violations of the ceasefire on the Lebanon front. Iran initially tied their attendance of talks to a total cessation of conflict in Lebanon, though ultimately decided to go to Islamabad without a de facto ceasefire but with some sort of guarantee that we’ll go tell Netanyahu to stop firing for a while. A few days after the negotiations failed, a more comprehensive ceasefire was actually achieved in Lebanon. It’s still a Zionist Ceasefire (“you cease fire, we keep attacking”), and the Zionists committed several massive civilian atrocities just before the ceasefire began. After the ceasefire began, violations have, to my knowledge, been remarkably few up to the time of me writing this.
Shortly after the failure of negotiations, the US began their own blockade of Iran’s ports. As the US Navy cannot get within a few hundred miles of even the entrance of the Strait of Hormuz, the blockade is taking place at some line in the Sea of Oman, where Iranian ships will be intercepted. The confusion caused by this situation has been incredible, with a few days of people tracking Iranian tankers closely, concluding that if they had crossed the Strait of Hormuz, they had successfully ran the blockade (they had not). After about a week of this de jure blockade, it was indeed confirmed to be real when the US captured its first Iranian oil tanker. This prompted Iran to fully close the Strait of Hormuz (see the megathread image), and there are reports of, as always, at best questionable veracity that in response to the US’s blockade of their blockade, Iran possibly intends to 1) totally blockade Gulf State ports in the Persian Gulf of any kind, not just oil, and/or 2) talk to their ally Ansarallah and have them blockade the Red Sea (and they seem keen to do so in support of the Resistance).
Additionally, Iran has made the end of the US blockade the precondition to enter into new negotiations. The short term and even medium term effect of the US blockade will be minimal - China has a colossal strategic petroleum reserve which will last them several months even with their economy at full steam even assuming all Middle Eastern imports are cut off overnight, and Iran itself is not wholly reliant on oil exports for basic survival like other oil states (though it’ll certainly hurt the economy if prolonged). There are also certain ways that the blockade can be subverted, like potentially some advanced shadow fleet tactics with the cooperation of allied countries, or, in the long term, the construction of overland oil transportation routes (a significant railway route was constructed in the last few years between Iran and China).
Last week’s thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
Please check out the RedAtlas!
The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on the Zionists’ destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
100% of all Venezuelan oil funds are held in a Us controlled Qatari fund. This is widely reported and has never been disputed. The US disburses funds to Venezuela, they write the checks, and can withhold arbitrarily.
Why are you backpedaling from your claim
Show us all how all wealth and power have been transferred to the Americans and show us all the privatized assets
Do it
Oil is the plurality of the Venezuelan economy. With control of it goes control of everything, since it’s leverage. With that leverage the US is slowly already transferring state assets into private hands, with the government announcing new privatization initiatives. What do you think privatization is? It is transfer of control to imperialists.
so you can’t back up your claims, got it
Sure if you just ignore all the factual events I claimed you can keep your head in the sand high on idealist rhetoric
You have typed words on the Internet and pressed submit, not submitted evidence nor really contending with any of the positions I put forward or evidence I’ve provided many times. You can watch the video I linked here for information from marxists who are actually engaged in this struggle. You can go look at the many links and things I’ve written in the past, sometimes to you, and actually try and read them and contend instead of just ignoring and pushing your agenda. That time you asked to disengage in the end and you haven’t tried to engage with other things I’ve said on the subject and I’m already assuming this is coming down the pipe.
So far you have asserted your theory of change posits that if Venezuela were to lose control over 100% of its oil it would have effectively given up all leverage and been defeated, lost all power, etc. you haven’t proven that is true, but even if it is,
Marxism is a theory of changed based in class struggle yet yours is based on who controls oil. Venezuela is a nation that is controlled by a socialist government, in unity with probably the largest per capita communes on the planet who are mostly self sufficient, firmly steeped in a decades long revolutionary anti colonial movement with large popular support. This is an ongoing class struggle between the Venezuelan nation and the imperialist nations, after decades of internal struggle that saw the toppling of the bourgeois class in Venezuela by the most oppressed classes, ushering in a socialist government that began construction of socialism in Venezuela pretty recently. The communard in the video talks about how they are deepening their revolution and are working with the government to do so. They all are on the same page, but you are on the page of the gringos, literally.
These are millions of socialist humans under siege who are showing a level of militant dedication to revolution that you certainly are not capable of. You say they are defeated because they are under siege and are making wise diplomatic decisions to unblock frozen assets, unblock their economic siege, and continue to fund and deepen their revolution. You have offered no alternatives aside from “resist” but yet feel confident Chavismo is defeated and you are a person who understands what they should have done differently. You haven’t provided sources for your claims, only appealing to “everyone knows it.” I know you aren’t going to even try to take this all in and really consider it but I know a lot of people here are actually trying and I appreciate that and want to contribute to it
Can’t put it much better than that
I for one am getting pretty tired of the person you’re replying to using liberal vibes analysis and declaring it marxist
I try to see it as an opportunity for me to keep myself fresh on combatting that kind of liberalism, a mildly masochistic exercise of some kind, but it is also an annoying thing to see. I don’t mind criticism or question asking or exploring hypotheticals or much really but to declare things so confidently and be so wrong and refuse to really engage with counter points is a special kind of behavior that raises a lot of questions about the character of the person doing it
I’m talking about material control of resources. You are the ones using idealism. Talk of “the revolution is alive you westerner!” Is not convincing to me. Use a Marxist argument about how power is being taken back by the people and maybe I’ll be more convinced but nobody is making those arguments because power is being siphoned out to the US, not the other way around
The people had power before this happened, they have been under an external economic siege which they have almost no control over or ability to stop aside from diplomacy. Your premise is by taking the president they have lost all power, when in reality they are making more money, funding their communes, maintaining internal unity, and continuing their ongoing revolution. You want me to show how they are taking power back which fundamentally proves you don’t have any ground to stand on! You have created an illusory goal post “prove me something that does not exist or you are wrong.” I can’t show you how they got their power back because it wasn’t taken from them, they have held it firmly for a long time and have only gained concessions since the US attack. As I already said, you aren’t engaging with much of anything already said, just kind of repeating yourself like chat bot and ignoring everything else
Repeatedly trying to argue about something you don’t know anything about isn’t useful or even adult behavior
So was Maduro a hindrance or a boon to communards and campesinos or not? 'cause 4 months ago any criticism of him was labelled ultra-leftist, idealist, every other word internet grandstanders use to silence critical understanding of the world. But now apparently they didn’t need Maduro at all and makes it seem like campist hysterics for 4 months ago.
It was the same with Assad. You could not criticize his government or his actions at all, until he fell, then suddenly it was “he’s a corrupt joke” etc. etc.
Where was all that critique and analysis of his corruption and incompetence before his fall? Silenced by campists. After his fall, now we have to pretend we knew all along.
When you see the campism flip 180 it really makes you thonk
Assad and Ba’athism were heavily criticized by marxists the whole time, he got critical support because the alternative was ISIS and now here we are. So yes if your criticism of his gov was that it shouldn’t exist, sure people would rightfully point out that you are essentially taking a pro ISIS stance and are therefore on the side of the US, which you seem to have no problem with because you are consistently on their side against self proclaimed socialist states. All you have is strawmen, why don’t you try actually engaging with the arguments laid out
Maduro was fine enough, the point is that acting like because the US took him the whole project has collapsed is really the whole point of the US taking him. Their only play is manufacturing a narrative that sows division among revolutionaries in hopes that they tear themselves apart from the inside, because from the outside the US can’t do that much since it also needs Venezuelan oil desperately and a land invasion isn’t realistic, especially after their assault on Iran. Cuba is close enough that it is more at risk but Venezuela is very difficult topography.
The US got a symbolic victory that didn’t really effect Venezuela’s project negatively, and actually forced the US to concede to Venezuela that they would lift the blockade against them and even facilitate money going back to Venezuela.
If you take the US and internet ultras position, you believe the symbolic taking of Maduro is a crushing defeat of Venezuela, who has now become a neo colony because of it.
The vice president stepped up and Venezuela continues with more money than they had before due to the US concessions, the communes are getting more funding and diversifying themselves away from oil, but somehow the US wins and chavismo is defeated because they captured the king or whatever.
You see how one side is just a headline and the other is the reality that there has been no shift of power in Venezuela and in fact more funding for their ongoing revolution? That’s the point, taking maduro is a headline, but the revolution is in the hands of the people as it always has been and necessarily must be, and until that fundamentally changes any defeat is only another precursor to a future victory as the struggle continues.
Was reading this article today about MST in Brazil/Venezeula and it gives me a lot of hope, but you’ll notice it’s more about on-the-ground organizing and integration of industries and stuff for people. https://monthlyreview.org/articles/land-cooperation-and-socialism/
Has criticisms of Lula, which internet MLs would label ultra, most likely.
I will try and read it later but generally trust MST probably has good critiques of Lula. He is not anywhere close to as revolutionary as Bolivarian revolutionaries, and is kind of like a Bernie type soc dem if anything, although he is being forced left due to the strong right in Brazil and the global geopolitical situation.
It seems like you think that some MLs are against criticizing leftist leaders and that is far from the case, it’s just that ultras are not criticizing they are purity testing without having any analysis of the material conditions so their criticism is basically made up and also ends up almost always being the exact same made up criticism of the capitalist mouth pieces. It is so tiring to have people pretend to be leftists and then repeat all the lines of the US state department against people actively resisting the US government, while also “criticizing” them for “not resisting correctly.”
I agree with you (not that it means much from me, an ignoramus on Venezuela) but regardless of the topic, I think the tone on hexbear needs to be more patient and low-pressure than this. If a comrade is wrong, that’s a teachable moment, for them and you and everyone else here. If you’re patient and respectful, then the person you’re speaking to has emotional space to consider your idea instead of potentially feeling pressured to defend themself by attacking it reflexively, which is not a constructive result.
The other reason I care is that, when we are hostile toward each other, it doesn’t just affect the person we are speaking to, it can start to create an overall hostile atmosphere on the site, which tends to become a feedback loop: a hostile atmosphere makes people defensive, and then they protect themselves with hostility, which makes the atmosphere even more hostile, and so on.
If someone says “control of oil is control of Venezuela,” maybe there’s a faulty mindset but that is first and foremost a concrete statement of belief that can be addressed with a concrete rebuttal. For example, maybe the counter argument is: “The Venezuelan people can always recapture their resources in the future, as long as revolutionary consciousness and theory are still prevalent and they are not crushed by a (potentially infeasible) ground war or prolonged fascist junta,” and then maybe you make a comparison to another state that recaptured its resources from foreign capital – or whatever your argument is.
My point is, we all learn from each other, that is how the ideological consensus on this site emerges and evolves.
Anyway, sorry for tone-policing and inserting myself into this uninvited.
This would all be fair were it not the same user throwing the same stale ‘arguments’ for the umpteenth time
Even then, I still think the approach needs to be the same: patient, deescalatory, willing to teach and learn, and as concrete as the topic allows, while doing your best to demonstrate to the other person that you understand their perspective. That is how you get through to someone, and that is how you maintain a healthy culture on a site that deals with complex, potentially contentious, and emotionally charged topics.
I think irl this is important but I’m in favor of bullying ultras on the internet, if they don’t want to be bullied they wouldn’t say bullshit as if it is true and refuse to engage with counter arguments. Ultras exist to divide and undermine revolutionaries and have no intention on anyone “getting through to them”
I think pretty much everyone irritated with the poster in question have tried that and found that the poster in question makes their mind up on something based on vibes and consumption of western media, then aggressively asserts it without ever taking in new information or making any attempt to learn more on their own about the subject. At some point people lose the the patience for handling willful ignorance with kid gloves.
It’s fine to say how you feel, no need to apologize.
I change my tone depending on who I am talking to, but when it comes to doomers talking out of their ass, I think directly combatting the liberalism is fine and sometimes necessary. There is an ideological struggle going on and I don’t think we always need to be polite against people spreading gringo narratives. Many people come here with sincere questions and open ignorance but for those who are dedicated in their mission of undermining revolutionary movements with bourgeois narratives, no evidence, and a refusal to engage with counter arguments, they can sincerely get fucked
I won’t discount that some of it may be
gringobrainworms, but I also think some of it is a reaction to fear and uncertainty.The US empire is posturing like we are headed toward WW3 within a decade or so, and the techno-fascists are building skynet-lite in anticipation of unrest. The empire’s bloodlust is infinite and they no longer seem to care about appearances. And yet the situation is still early and vague, so no one really knows what will happen, and it’s hard to reason about, which lends itself to vibes analysis.
I think the unspoken doomer position is, “we need to be pessimists so we’ll be prepared.” I’m putting words in their mouths, but they may feel that some leftists underestimate the US or do not want to hear bad news, which they would see as a dangerous attitude at a time like this. We’re social creatures, we want our peer group to be prepared for trouble, because we depend on each other.
And to be totally fair, evidence suggests that the US does have a plan. Whether it will work is another question, but the US is probably not just fumbling around doing whatever Trump wants. So when a doom-inclined person sees hexbear discourse about apparent US incompetence or impotence, they may feel they need to push in the other direction, potentially more than is warranted.
Personally I’m an optimist, both as a matter of rational belief (to whatever extent my amateurish beliefs are rational), and as a conscious choice to maintain morale, which I think is crucial for any group under contest. I think the revolutionary people of the world are determined and have heart, and I think the US is crumbling along with its systems of geopolitical control.
*I forgot to add, whether or not a charitable interpretation is true, I still always try to start there, and continue until the person removes all doubt – and maybe this person already has, I don’t know all the history. Just putting that out there.
**Crossed out “gringo” because it’s no longer ambiguous, I looked through the thread and the user has said he is not white
😠