If there was a 1% likelihood of your plane crashing, would you board it? Even low likelihood things are worth planning for, if the consequences are severe.

It really depends on what happens in the next couple of weeks. If more oil/gas infrastructure is damaged then expect an extended emergency that lasts for months or years.

Humans are creative, we all want things to work out and capitalism is more resilient and flexible than I’ve expected in the past so there could be positive surprises too. Maybe the Ukraine war will stop and Russia will sell us lots of oil and gas, who knows.