Image is one of many rallies in Iran in support of the government and the leadership.
short summary here, longish summary in spoiler tags below: Western standoff munition stockpiles now substantially depleted, therefore Western aircraft activity directly over Iran increasing (as is footage of attempted and actual hits against them) as the US attempts to transition more to using bombs dropped directly onto targets, Iran is increasingly in the driver’s seat and controlling the conflict, world economy is fucked and yet could still get much worse very soon, if you require a car to live (especially if it’s not electric) and cannot work from home then you have my sincere condolences
longish summary here
While I’ve seen several estimates on the current stockpiles of US and Zionist missiles and interceptors - somewhere in the realm of a third depleted, perhaps even up to half - it seems like we’re reaching the point at which the US does not want to commit even more standoff munitions and is trying their luck against the Iranian air defense network directly.
We have already seen footage of Iran attempting to shoot down, and sometimes actually striking Western fifth generation planes like the F-35, and more footage along those lines is appearing for other plane models (with one side claiming that they evaded interception and the other claiming they hit it, etc etc, propaganda is everywhere, you know the drill). How much the US is willing to test their planes against Iranian air defense is a matter of debate. Strictly speaking, a few fighter jets and bombers shot down would be no catastrophic loss in the grand scheme of things, as the US has hundreds. However, the narrative of such a thing would be quite bad for the US - “You’re telling me an OBLITERATED Iranian military can shoot down some of our most advanced equipment?? What are we gonna do against China?!” - and given Trump’s deranged jingoistic rhetoric aimed to buoy markets, it’s clear that he cares very deeply about narratives. Additionally, with Chinese exports of several critical metals to the US banned, the prospect of replacing these aircraft (and indeed the standoff munitions and the interceptors and the ground radars etc) is looking questionable.
All the while, Iran continues its strikes across the Middle East. Missile and drone strikes are reportedly on the uptick again, demonstrating that Iranian military capabilities have by no means been “destroyed” as Western propaganda claim, though it’s impossible to sure there was ever a significant downtick due to Western censorship and outright fabrications. People around the world are gradually realizing the magnitude of the economic disaster that is occurring and may yet occur. Refineries and factories which deal with oil and gas directly are starting to slow down or stop production, and those who make products downstream of those are starting to follow them like dominoes. Outrage at gas station prices is rising, and many countries are considering limiting civilian driving and implementing work-from-home policies akin to the coronavirus pandemic. And now, threats are being made by Trump against both Kharg Island (where most Iranian oil is shipped from) and the Iranian electrical grid - which is highly decentralized and would require a prolonged bombing campaign to completely take out -and the promised Iranian reprisal would be apocalyptic to the Middle East. It would make oil prices rise to previously unfathomable heights as oil infrastructure turned off and remained off for months, perhaps years, and set in motion one of the world’s greatest humanitarian catastrophes as the desalination necessary for tens of millions of people is shut down. It would also not be a symmetrical problem, as Iran does not rely on desalination for its water supply.
Last week’s thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
Please check out the RedAtlas!
The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on the Zionists’ destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
https://xcancel.com/wyattreed13/status/2036471596315979974
Incredible quotes in the deleted Telegraph article about the Lebanese Christians supporting Hezbollah. I wonder why they didn’t want their audience to read this 🤔
(cw: mentions of SA)
The article The Telegraph censored from their page is still available via MSN currently: https://archive.ph/Lkh8k
another great quote
“The relationship between the village and Hezbollah is stronger than with the Pope,” Rifiat Nasrallah, 60, a quarryman and village leader whose marble sarcophagi line the village cemetery, told The Telegraph during a visit in the midst of war. “The Vatican did nothing for us but Hezbollah spilt their blood to protect us. The Pope only has prayers.”
https://xcancel.com/ripplebrain/status/2036506024786464900
The Royal Navy (UK) is set to lead coalition efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, according to The Times. A plan led by the UK and France is under development to ensure the safe passage of merchant ships, but it will require the Americans, according to an official.
Beautiful euro newslop. Set to develop a plan to lead an effort. But it needs the Americans. So ambiguous and so many escape hatches no one will notice when nothing happens.
they’re actually just doing Yes Minister bits IRL
https://xcancel.com/MvD366445175239/status/2036502077011288107
It’s really kind of underreported and unappreciated that the US just evacuated the Green Zone and Camp Victory after negotiating a ceasefire with local militias for this withdrawal. You’d think it would be a bigger deal that US forces have abandoned Iraq outside of Kurdish areas
If/when Russia evacuates it’s bases in Syria , it would be heralded as the end of Russia as an imperial power. But when the US does it , it’s nothing
https://xcancel.com/ripplebrain/status/2036520439292277119
Extremely impressive yet highly concerning dynamics at play in the Middle East this week. An area of low pressure deepening over Iraq is accompanied by very strong wind shear and massive instability across Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, and Oman. Thunderstorms forming in this environment have the potential to be dangerous and destructive with intense precipitation leading to flooding, large to very large hail, severe winds, and even tornadoes.
Allah has decided to end the air campaign against Iran
looking forward to the Marines getting wiped out by a typhoon as they approach the Iranian shoreline like the Mongols
Do you (roughly) agree with his statement in the NYT? Why / why not?
By Mr. Zandi’s calculations, every $10-per-barrel increase in oil corresponds with a 25-cent increase in gas prices.
-–
Edit
According to the federal government, there’s a general rule that for every $1 change in the price of oil, there’s roughly a 2.4-cent change per gallon of gas.
Ah here we go, as expected. Another declaration of victory. That makes at least 10 so far?
Market is already rallying, especially the US treasury market. But nothing huge like in the past. This should be good for another ~24 hours, I guess.
Trump: “They (Iran) gave us a present and the present arrived today. It was a very big present worth a tremendous amount of money. I’m not going to tell you what that present is but it was a very significant prize and they gave it to us.”
Iran says it targeted Rafael weapons facility in Haifa - Al Jazeera update
Iran’s armed forces say they have carried out drone attacks targeting a facility of Israel’s Rafael weapons firm in the northern city of Haifa. According to Iran’s Fars news agency, a spokesperson for the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters said Iranian forces launched missiles and drones at targets including Eilat, Dimona and areas around Tel Aviv, as well as what it described as US military bases in the region.
Iran added that its air defences had intercepted cruise missiles and drones over central and southern parts of the country. Earlier, we reported strikes also targeted aerospace facilities near Ben Gurion Airport and refuelling aircraft at the site. Israel has not officially commented on these claims.
The United States is said to have sent Iran a plan to end the war. - NYT update
Full text
The United States has sent Iran a 15-point plan to end the war in the Middle East, according to two officials briefed on the diplomacy, reflecting the Trump administration’s eagerness to find an offramp from the conflict as it grapples with its economic fallout.
It was unclear how widely the plan, delivered by way of Pakistan, had been shared among Iranian officials and whether Iran was likely to accept it as a basis for negotiations. Nor was it clear whether Israel, which has been bombing Iran together with the United States, was on board with the proposal.
But the delivery of the plan showed that the administration was ramping up efforts to conclude a war, now in its fourth week, that has drawn in several other countries.
The New York Times did not see a copy of the plan, but the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive details, shared some of its broad outlines, saying that it addresses Iran’s ballistic missile and nuclear programs.
Israel and the United States have targeted Iran’s ballistic missiles, launchers and production facilities, and its nuclear program in the bombing campaign that began on Feb. 28. American and Israeli leaders have vowed never to allow Iran to possess a nuclear weapon.
But Iran has continued to fire missiles at Israel and neighboring Arab countries and still holds 440 kilograms of highly enriched uranium in its territory.
The plan also discusses maritime routes, one of the officials said. Since the beginning of the war, Iran has effectively blocked most Western ships from safely passing through the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic waterway in and out of the Persian Gulf, cutting the global supply of oil and natural gas, and sending the prices soaring.
For now, there is no indication that the war will let up imminently; Israeli officials have said they expect it to continue for weeks. In a statement, Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, acknowledged diplomacy was underway, but said, “As President Trump and his negotiators explore this newfound possibility of diplomacy, Operation Epic Fury continues unabated to achieve the military objectives laid out by the Commander in Chief and the Pentagon.”
Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir, has emerged as the key interlocutor between the United States and Iran, with Egypt and Turkey encouraging the Iranians to engage constructively, the officials added. Field Marshal Munir is believed to maintain close ties to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, putting him in a position to pass messages between the warring sides, they said.
He recently reached out to Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of Iran’s Parliament and a former Revolutionary Guards commander, proposing that Pakistan host talks between Iran and the United States, said an Iranian official and a Pakistani official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive communications.
Field Marshal Munir met twice in 2025 with President Trump, who has showered praise on him, saying he was his “favorite field marshal.”
On Tuesday, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif of Pakistan wrote on social media that his country “fully supports ongoing efforts to pursue dialogue to end” the war in the Middle East.
“Subject to concurrence by the US and Iran, Pakistan stands ready and honoured to be the host to facilitate meaningful and conclusive talks for a comprehensive settlement of the ongoing conflict,” he wrote.
Iran may have trouble delivering a quick response to American outreach. Senior Iranian officials have been struggling to communicate internally and they worry that Israel could bomb them if they meet in person, the officials added.
On the first day of the war, Israel struck an Iranian leadership compound in Tehran, killing Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and many other top officials. Who now holds the power to make decisions on diplomacy, war and peace remains to be seen.
But the eagerness of the White House to negotiate suggests that Mr. Trump would be willing to leave the current regime in place, at least for now, albeit in a weakened and more pliant state. He and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel have vacillated on whether their demands for the war included regime change.
Volkswagen to shift from cars to missile defence in deal with Israel’s Iron Dome maker
Venture between carmaker’s Osnabrück plant and Rafael Advanced Defence Systems part of plan to save 2,300 jobs
Under the plans, the Osnabrück factory would make various Iron Dome parts, including the heavy-duty trucks that carry the system’s missiles as well as launchers and electricity generators. But it would not produce the projectiles themselves.
“The aim is to save everybody, maybe even to grow,” said one of the people familiar with the plans. The idea, he added, was that “proven [defence] tech comes together with German manufacturing” to produce the system.
Looks like Volkswagen is returning to their Nazi roots.
Alhamdulillah
Additionally “The Ministerial Council for National Security directs the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to summon the American ambassador”
Bloomberg doing a little vagueposting about the myriad problems with the Gerald Ford (I imagine a fair amount is classified) but what it does say is nonetheless pretty revealing:
US Aircraft Carrier That Left Mideast Over Fire Has Other Issues
Delivered years late in May 2017, the Ford is the most expensive US warship ever built at $13.2 billion. […]
The concerns around the Ford range from the potentially grave to the mundane, according to a new assessment from the Pentagon testing office, with many issues surfacing after it started combat testing in October 2022. The Navy didn’t comment on the report. Among the lingering concerns: there isn’t enough current test data to asses the Ford’s “operational suitability,” or the reliability of several key systems, including its jet launch and recovery system, its radar, its ability to keep operating if hit by enemy fire and its elevators for moving weapons and munitions for warplanes from the hold to the flight deck.
The Pentagon’s test office said “insufficient data are available at this time” — nine years after the ship was delivered — “to determine the Ford-class’s operational effectiveness,” due to incomplete realistic combat testing. That means it’s not clear how well the Ford — and other ships in its class, which have yet to be delivered — can detect, track or intercept enemy aircraft, anti-ship missiles or small attack aircraft. It’s also unclear how the aircraft carrier’s systems would perform under the wartime strain of continuous takeoffs and landings.
But I think there’s lessons for everybody here: always remember to clean out your lint traps, don’t spend 13 billion dollars on an aircraft carrier that cannot do any of the jobs an aircraft carrier is meant to do when facing an opponent that has things like cheap, easily buildable drones, and don’t flush clothes and mops down the toilet.
I couldn’t understand why CNN’s live updates page had a TSA Wait Times Tracker right in the middle of it. I’m not detail oriented and I had clicked the wrong live updates link.
https://www.cnn.com/us/live-news/ice-tsa-wait-times-shutdown-03-24-26
US bond yields are basically back to where they were before Trump did his fake “negotiations” tweet before market open on Monday. I wonder what he’ll come up with next.
[edit] Whoops
The Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing General Business Activity index fell from 5.8 in February to -8.3 in March.
The declines came from a drop in the employment indexes. The index tracking the hiring of full-time employees fell -21.9 pts to -11.3.
Just got through airport security and unfortunately I had to go home using an airport that just got an infusion of ice agents.
From what I understood previously, the ice guys were just going to be watching the areas where people leave the secure gate areas, but I can report that the ice guys at this airport are actually checking people’s passports/IDs where the TSA guy normally does it, and I even saw one helping put people’s bags on the conveyor belt.
When your ID/boarding pass is checked, normally you can do this as a group, but they separated me from my girlfriend, forcing me into a security line without her, which was pretty enraging. I had a hard time holding my tongue, and my heart rate was going crazy.(Oh, and they’re all armed still, btw.)
For this and a host of other reasons, maybe don’t fly right now folks!
