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silence7@slrpnk.netM to Climate - truthful information about climate, related activism and politics.@slrpnk.netEnglish · 3 months ago

Weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation causes the historical North Atlantic Warming Hole

www.nature.com

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Weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation causes the historical North Atlantic Warming Hole

www.nature.com

silence7@slrpnk.netM to Climate - truthful information about climate, related activism and politics.@slrpnk.netEnglish · 3 months ago
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Weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation causes the historical North Atlantic Warming Hole | Communications Earth & Environment
www.nature.com
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Most oceans over the globe have experienced surface warming during the past century, but the subpolar Atlantic is quite otherwise. The sea surface temperature cooling trend to the south of Greenland, known as the North Atlantic Warming Hole, has raised debate over whether it is driven by the slowing of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Here we use observations as a benchmark and climate models as a tool to demonstrate that only models simulating a weakened historical Atlantic overturning can broadly reproduce the observed cooling and freshening in the warming hole region. This, in turn, indicates that the realistic Atlantic overturning slowed between 1900 and 2005, at a rate of −1.01 to −2.97 Sv century−1 (1 Sv = 106 m3 s−1), according to a sea-surface-temperature-based fingerprint index estimate. Particularly, the Atlantic overturning slowdown causes an oceanic heat transport divergence across the subpolar North Atlantic, which, while partially offset by enhanced ocean heat uptake, results in cooling over the warming hole region. The North Atlantic Warming Hole is tied to a weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation during the past century, according to climate models and observation data.
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Discussion of climate, how it is changing, activism around that, the politics, and the energy systems change we need in order to stabilize things.

As a starting point, the burning of fossil fuels, and to a lesser extent deforestation and release of methane are responsible for the warming in recent decades: Graph of temperature as observed with significant warming, and simulated without added greenhouse gases and other anthropogentic changes, which shows no significant warming

How much each change to the atmosphere has warmed the world: IPCC AR6 Figure 2 - Thee bar charts: first chart: how much each gas has warmed the world.  About 1C of total warming.  Second chart:  about 1.5C of total warming from well-mixed greenhouse gases, offset by 0.4C of cooling from aerosols and negligible influence from changes to solar output, volcanoes, and internal variability.  Third chart: about 1.25C of warming from CO2, 0.5C from methane, and a bunch more in small quantities from other gases.  About 0.5C of cooling with large error bars from SO2.

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