Most oceans over the globe have experienced surface warming during the past century, but the subpolar Atlantic is quite otherwise. The sea surface temperature cooling trend to the south of Greenland, known as the North Atlantic Warming Hole, has raised debate over whether it is driven by the slowing of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Here we use observations as a benchmark and climate models as a tool to demonstrate that only models simulating a weakened historical Atlantic overturning can broadly reproduce the observed cooling and freshening in the warming hole region. This, in turn, indicates that the realistic Atlantic overturning slowed between 1900 and 2005, at a rate of −1.01 to −2.97 Sv century−1 (1 Sv = 106 m3 s−1), according to a sea-surface-temperature-based fingerprint index estimate. Particularly, the Atlantic overturning slowdown causes an oceanic heat transport divergence across the subpolar North Atlantic, which, while partially offset by enhanced ocean heat uptake, results in cooling over the warming hole region. The North Atlantic Warming Hole is tied to a weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation during the past century, according to climate models and observation data.
A mysteries graphic of sea surface temperatures is the kind of clickbait I fall for, apparently. As it turns out, a is the observations, b and c are from the models they’re evaluating, referred to as AMOC- and AMOC+. de and f are similar for salinity instead of temperature.
Looking at SST anomaly maps you often see it a bit lower in that region, but I didn’t realize the “hole” was so strongly apparent in the observations.