More than half of “long-shot” bets on military action made on Polymarket are successful, according to a new report that suggests prediction markets could pose a bigger threat than previously recognized to the security of sensitive information.
Analysis by the Anti-Corruption Data Collective, a non-profit research and advocacy group, found that long-shot bets—defined as wagers of $2,500 or more at odds of 35 percent or less—on the platform had an average win rate of around 52 percent in markets on military and defense actions.
That compares with a win rate of 25 percent across all politics-focused markets and just 14 percent for all markets on the platform as a whole.
The research is likely to add to growing concerns among regulators and lawmakers about insiders placing bets on the timing and success of military actions, amid fears that this could reveal classified information in advance.
You’d have to be incredibly stupid to not be able to see how easily gamed this whole thing is. All it takes are insiders to submit “outlandish” bets on things they know are going to happen. Like… this is the stupidest pipeline for upward wealth shift there is right now. You’d have to be 100% devoid of intelligence to be a working class participant.
Something like 70% of all Polymarket bets are won by roughly 0.04% of the users. It’s the same capitalists winning every time, while working class folks lose their shirts.
Everything in the US is a massive unhinged, unregulated grift now. This is a scam economy in a scam country.
More Perfect Union video about this.
If I was a polymarket employee I certainly wouldn’t consider identifying accounts with successful military predictions and selling that information to anyone. I’m sure this doesn’t create any dangerous incentives as far as national security goes!
All my Polymarket bets have been on long shots.
In related news, all my long shot Polymarket bets have lost
Can I put long shot bets on the outcomes of your long shot bets?
Are you betting on what you want to happen?
I am shocked!
