• batsforpeace [any, any]@hexbear.netEnglish
    11·
    1 year ago

    OpenAI could be propped up by MS for a while even if it doesn’t make a profit, to keep the brand name alive, for the smaller AI startups I guess it will be the same story as with crypto? VC investors put some money in, hype up retail investors to also invest, cash out/exit, then the startups slowly close because they can’t turn a profit leaving the smaller investors with most of the losses

    edit: also lol at making public bets on this, got nothing better to do?

  • LanyrdSkynrd [comrade/them, any]@hexbear.netEnglish
    8·
    1 year ago

    Excellent article.

    The stuff about their deal with Microsoft is crazy. MS gets 75% of the profit until they recoup $10B, and free access to any technology OpenAI has or will make until they achieve AGI. So anyone investing in OpenAI is basically only betting that they achieve AGI before they go bankrupt.

    That also means Microsoft has little reason to buy OpenAI. Based on the deal, it seems MS is very skeptical of their chances at achieving AGI. It’s not a situation where Altman can bluff them into thinking they’re making progress, MS has access to see what’s really going on.

  • Owl [he/him]@hexbear.netEnglish
    4·
    1 year ago

    It’s exactly the opposite! Prediction/betting markets are possibly the most/only reliable way to forecast things with otherwise limited information. Prediction Markets are extremely accurate since being wrong makes people poor and they use every trick in the book to not be poor.

    Huffing farts over here.

    I played with prediction markets for fun for a while. They’re completely headline-driven and hype focused. I made a steady profit by betting against every “will X happen by Y deadline” available. Thus, while OpenAI has no business model and is a doomed company, I would not take that guy’s bet.