Some key demographic groups are shifting, too. Young voters, Latinos and independents in the survey are either sliding away from Biden or aren’t sold on voting for him. There’s a massive shift among nonwhite voters overall, while older voters and college-educated white voters — men in particular — are moving heavily in Biden’s direction.
This is the best summary I could come up with:
“It’s a big deal, because we’re in the beginnings of a seismic shift in the nature of our parties,” said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, which conducted the survey of more than 1,300 adults.
It was a group that once sided with Democrats because of economic issues, but Trump moved them more in his direction in part by vilifying immigrants and playing on white grievance.
The questions now for the coming months are whether the younger voters who have shifted toward Trump stay there, whether they decide not to vote or if they move toward a third-party candidate, like Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Biden retains a 2-point lead when Kennedy and other third-party candidates are included, like professor Cornel West, running as an independent; as well as the Green Party’s Jill Stein.
Democrats are banking on the wavering voters eventually deciding against casting their votes for Kennedy, as scrutiny of his candidacy increases in the next few months — and they see a second Trump presidency as an urgent threat.
In the survey, 61% of voters 18-29 said they disapprove of the job Biden is doing overall — and he has a lot of work to do to get Latinos even close to the level they supported him at four years ago.
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